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Topic: OT - Cable Alternatives

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #224 on: May 19, 2018, 12:06:10 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 18, 2018, 03:31:32 PM
Bandwidth is always shared. If a cable company has 100 houses in a neighborhood hooked up to one "trunk", and each of those houses has 300 Mbps service, I guarantee you that the cable company doesn't have the bandwidth to supply 30 Gbps to that neighborhood at one time. They're all going to thin-provision the bandwidth rather than overbuild their infrastructure.

Isn't overbuilding their infrastructure precisely what they should do?  Technology is obviously continuously advancing - it's only a matter of time before what they've settled on is no longer going to be good enough.
It's like building roads - why build a 2-lane road now when you know the population in the area will be double in 30 years?!?  
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utee94

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #225 on: May 19, 2018, 12:36:07 AM »
Well the most immediate answer, is that building double their current capacity needs, is extremely expensive, and pretty much impossible to show your investors/shareholders a desirable ROI within an acceptable time period.  Building incremental bandwidth with a perceived acceptable short term ROI is the only way any capital expenditures are going to be justified/approved.

« Last Edit: May 19, 2018, 12:38:31 AM by utee94 »
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #226 on: May 19, 2018, 08:44:18 AM »
How is this 5G thing going to impact all this?
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FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #227 on: May 19, 2018, 09:29:30 AM »
it's gig speeds from cell towers.  Some speculate that it could replace wired services like coax or fiber.  Many subscribers today use mobile hotspots or jetpacks for all their internet access from a cell carrier.

5G is an upgrade from 4G in speed and latency and can eliminate the expensive last mile of cable to each premise

the issue is how many towers & antennas are needed to satisfy demand

I think it will be very similar to today, with some customers using wired and some using cellular.

If the cellular companies really made a huge push to convert all antennas to 5G and build more towers they could probably grab more market share, but it seems the companies placing fiber optic cable are meeting the challenge.
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #228 on: May 19, 2018, 10:13:18 AM »
Some dude on TV claimed 5G would be a YUGE revolution in "stuff" like nothing we've seen in decades.
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FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #229 on: May 19, 2018, 10:14:34 AM »
well fiber optic was a huge deal about 15 years ago
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Thumper

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #230 on: May 19, 2018, 11:20:34 AM »
I think a distinction needs to be made between 5g fixed wireless and 5g mobile as the fixed wireless (FWA) is intended provide broadband to homes rather than a wide, roaming, area.  FWA small cell sites can be installed on light or power poles, rooftops, etc. which make it potentially attractive in areas where installing Fiber To The Home (FTTH) is difficult.  Verizon estimates FWA has a potential to serve about 1/3 of existing homes mostly in urban areas.  
In any case, much remains to be seen how effective it will be.  The biggest hope I have for it it that it will provide some competition for the cable companies such as Comcast, Cox, & Charter so they can't raise our rates into the stratosphere.
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #231 on: May 19, 2018, 02:42:14 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on May 19, 2018, 12:36:07 AM
Well the most immediate answer, is that building double their current capacity needs, is extremely expensive, and pretty much impossible to show your investors/shareholders a desirable ROI within an acceptable time period.  Building incremental bandwidth with a perceived acceptable short term ROI is the only way any capital expenditures are going to be justified/approved.


Seems awfully short-sided.
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utee94

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #232 on: May 19, 2018, 05:05:28 PM »
Does it?

While corporate shareholders are notoriously short-sighted, as a GM I'm not about to sign up my org for anything without a clearly demonstrable ROI.

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FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #233 on: May 19, 2018, 06:56:55 PM »
Quote from: Thumper on May 19, 2018, 11:20:34 AM
I think a distinction needs to be made between 5g fixed wireless and 5g mobile as the fixed wireless (FWA) is intended provide broadband to homes rather than a wide, roaming, area.  FWA small cell sites can be installed on light or power poles, rooftops, etc. which make it potentially attractive in areas where installing Fiber To The Home (FTTH) is difficult.  
the mesh and small cell technologies have been deployed by many municipalities and other competitors for a decade or so with limited success
limited bandwidth hasn't been the issue.  getting the networks up and running, maintenance, and reliability are issues along with revenue
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #234 on: May 19, 2018, 07:22:41 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on May 19, 2018, 05:05:28 PM
Does it?

While corporate shareholders are notoriously short-sighted, as a GM I'm not about to sign up my org for anything without a clearly demonstrable ROI.


Acting with the next quarterly report in mind is fine if you realize the graph can't go up forever.  If the future costs are inevitable AND going to replace what you're spending money on now.......why the hell do the job twice at greater cost, just because it's spread out?
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FearlessF

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #235 on: May 19, 2018, 07:34:15 PM »
ROI is always important

but sometimes, not many, a 20 year ROI is relevant and a 3 year ROI is not
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #236 on: May 20, 2018, 07:36:26 AM »
ROI often is more guess than calculation, especially when looking out 20 years.

"We" value stocks differently because we're somewhat guessing that one stock may enjoy a better ROI over time than another, so we give it a higher PE multiple.

And some stocks like Tesla are rather speculative in that respect as it's PE is negative.
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utee94

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Re: OT - Cable Alternatives
« Reply #237 on: May 21, 2018, 08:08:38 AM »
In our hardware manufacturing environment we can nail our ROI in R&D, product development, and manufacturing/production pretty closely.  Corporate IT investments, on the other hand, are extremely difficult to value.
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