header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

 (Read 2953188 times)

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82490
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44254 on: April 30, 2025, 11:42:32 AM »
From Brad, worth noting:

GDP is a very simple calculation. Imports are a subtraction from GDP in that calculation. Exports are an addition. Personal consumption (buying) is an addition.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domestic_product#Components_of_GDP_by_expenditure

What utee is getting at is that a pull-in of imports to Q1 results in an artificially low GDP because of that (in the calculation, M, or imports, was high). It's unlikely most of those imports were already consumed, so in the calculation C, or personal consumption, was likely unchanged.

In Q2, M will drop precipitously, and C will likely boost as consumers pull in purchases to get pre-tariff prices, expecting prices to rise as we hit the back half of Q2 and beyond. Possibly even more C as consumers start to read about possible shortages [or see real ones] and start hoarding, like during COVID.

That would mean a likely boost to GDP in Q2. Whether there's enough C to overcome the drop in M is questionable, especially if consumers simply try to tighten their belts in the advance of recession concerns, fear for their job stability, etc.

But a short-term pull-in of imports--which we have ABSOLUTELY seen across the economy, will cause GDP to drop. Especially if those goods have not yet been consumed. Which we also believe to be the case because it was companies increasing domestic inventory in fear of future tariffs, so they were importing goods they expected they'd need to sell in Q2, not Q1.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82490
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82490
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44256 on: April 30, 2025, 11:46:03 AM »
The US economy shrank by 0.3% in Q1, its first contraction since 2022, largely due to a surge in imports ahead of Trump's new tariffs and a slowdown in consumer spending.
Net exports dragged GDP down by nearly 5 percentage points, the biggest drop on record, as businesses rushed to stock up on goods before tariffs increased. While consumer spending still grew at 1.8%, it was the slowest pace since mid-2023, and overall momentum softened despite strong business investment in equipment, especially aircraft and tech.
Economists warn the recent flood of imports and rising inventories could distort the GDP picture temporarily, with a potential rebound in Q2. But fears loom over inflation and recession risks, as the US now faces an effective tariff rate of nearly 23%, the highest in over 100 years. Consumers and companies alike are bracing for a cost squeeze, and the Fed remains cautious about cutting rates amid policy uncertainty. Businesses like Whirlpool and Tractor Supply have already flagged weakened demand and declining confidence among both low- and high-income consumers.
📸: Canva



SFBadger96

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1839
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44257 on: April 30, 2025, 11:47:22 AM »
China's government has no particular need to be responsive to its people, and its history as a nation state dwarfs ours. In that sense, China has a much longer rope than the U.S. government does.

That said, China's growth has been stalling lately. That two or three decades of incredible growth has been coming to an end for at least the last half decade, and there's no obvious way for the Chinese government to fix it. Add to that the U.S. needs China as a trading partner way less than China needs the U.S. as a trading partner, so "we" definitely have a trade advantage in a trade war.

Overall, I think the balance leans heavily toward the U.S. in a trade war. The bigger question is why? At the end of said trade war, one likely outcome is that China has rewired its economy to place less of a need on trade with the U.S., which means that the U.S. has lost a great deal of leverage over China, i.e., the U.S. does not have as strong a position to constrain China's expansionism. Countries that rely on each other for their economic strength rarely go to war with each other. Countries that are fighting each other economically are much more likely to go to a shooting war with each other.

On the one hand that could be seen as overthinking it; on the other, it could lead to a stronger position for China, particularly in the Pacific and Asian theaters. No one here knows the long term outcome, but there are more factors than simply do we have a stronger position than China in the current trade war.? All that said, I have zero influence on it, so I'll just sit back and watch out how it spooles out, and hope that my kid doesn't end up fighting in Korea, Taiwan, southeast Asia, or Japan (to be fair, as of now I'm not overly worried about that).

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 45432
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44258 on: April 30, 2025, 11:55:03 AM »
the US is rewiring its economy to place less of a need on trade with China
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22169
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44259 on: April 30, 2025, 11:56:48 AM »
The bigger question is why? At the end of said trade war, one likely outcome is that China has rewired its economy to place less of a need on trade with the U.S., which means that the U.S. has lost a great deal of leverage over China, i.e., the U.S. does not have as strong a position to constrain China's expansionism.

The US already has no little to no leverage over China.  Why are you concerned with that as an issue?

Countries that rely on each other for their economic strength rarely go to war with each other. 
China has been at war with us for at least 6 decades.  It's shocking that some Americans have only realized this in the past few years, and even more shocking that some Americans still don't seem to understand this.

I don't understand anyone citing China's long history of thinking in glacial terms militarily and economically, and also citing China's current extreme authoritarian government, without understanding that these two factors are directly driving China's war against the US and the rest of the western world.  They've been in a war with us for over half a century, a war they started with long term goals in mind, and the fact that some Americans still don't understand this, is baffling.  And troubling.

MikeDeTiger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 4317
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44260 on: April 30, 2025, 12:18:11 PM »
The US already has no little to no leverage over China.  Why are you concerned with that as an issue?
China has been at war with us for at least 6 decades.  It's shocking that some Americans have only realized this in the past few years, and even more shocking that some Americans still don't seem to understand this.

I don't understand anyone citing China's long history of thinking in glacial terms militarily and economically, and also citing China's current extreme authoritarian government, without understanding that these two factors are directly driving China's war against the US and the rest of the western world.  They've been in a war with us for over half a century, a war they started with long term goals in mind, and the fact that some Americans still don't understand this, is baffling.  And troubling.


I think there's reasons for that, but it's a longer and murkier topic than I'm willing to get into here, now.  But I agree, a lot of Americans and Westerners in general don't grasp non-Western thinking.  

SFBadger96

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1839
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44261 on: April 30, 2025, 12:23:56 PM »
I must have missed the war we're in with China. Curious.

China has been trying to establish itself--and it has--as a global superpower, no doubt about that. And in so doing, it has been doing what it can to take advantage of the U.S. to the extent that it can, and to become a global competitor with the U.S.. I agree with that, but that's not a war. Has it been a trade war? Arguably. Certainly it's been an effort to use us to help China get bigger and stronger, while we have not been that concerned with whether we were getting bigger and stronger at the same time (although our economy has very likely benefitted from being able to take advantage of including China in our trade network). Has China won more out of this than the U.S.? Probably--but they are also have deep economic ties to the U.S. as a result--ties that, if severed, could be catastrophic for China. China's government knows that.
 
The U.S. is one of China's biggest trading partners--I think we're still the biggest (one reason is that the U.S. is the world's biggest trading partner because we're so wealthy as a nation). It also owns a lot of U.S. debt, which means that if the U.S. defaults or suffers from other economic calamities, that will damage China as well. 

The U.S. absolutely has had leverage over China, both economic and militarily--and we continue to. Does that mean that China simply does what we say? No, that's not how international relations work (even Isreal and Canada, two of our closest allies--and Isreal being especially happy to get U.S. investment--don't do that.)

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22169
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44262 on: April 30, 2025, 12:32:25 PM »
I must have missed the war we're in with China.
You didn't need to say anything further.

SFBadger96

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1839
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44263 on: April 30, 2025, 12:35:11 PM »
File this in the category of things we can probably all agree on. Today Robert Reich posted something on the site formerly known as Twitter inferring that Trump had $8.5M in civil fines against two former bankers reduced to $150,000 because of political donations. It just so happens that I worked on that case. In short, the twitter post is pure, unadulterated BS. 
Here's the lesson: politicians say things to rile up their followers that don't have a lick of truth to them simply because they make a bigger point that the politicians are trying to make.
One further lesson I'd like to share: it's ok to look for and point out (even just to yourself) when your "side" is full of it.

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22169
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44264 on: April 30, 2025, 12:38:09 PM »
One further lesson I'd like to share: it's ok to look for and point out (even just to yourself) when your "side" is full of it.
Since I have no side, it's quite easy for me to identify when either side is full of it.  Which is most of the time.

SFBadger96

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1839
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44265 on: April 30, 2025, 12:39:01 PM »
You didn't need to say anything further.

~:P

utee94

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22169
  • Liked:

Gigem

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3345
  • Liked:
Re: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes
« Reply #44267 on: April 30, 2025, 12:54:54 PM »
I'd like to hear some more detailed explanation about China's war with the US.  Since you've been there and worked closely with vendors etc from that part of the world I'd like to hear more of your viewpoints.  

I do agree that we are at "war" with China, but I'm not certain if the end result is just to have China be the worlds sole superpower or if they really want to go to a shooting war with us eventually.

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.