Currently, our military is populated with a historically large (not the biggest) number of combat veterans. That's useful, but they aren't veterans of the kinds of wars we're talking about. They are really good at clearing and holding cities from insurgents, but major force-on-force fighting isn't something we've done, really since Korea in the 50s. Even in Vietnam, we were primarily fighting light infantry battles, ordinarily not against a well-organized, state actor. We've trained on it a lot--and we still do--but another thing that is rapidly changing is the impact of surveillance and remote warfare on the battlefield. That's a big reason for everything bogging down in Ukraine. It is very difficult to mass for attacks without the enemy knowing what you are doing, and defending against it with remote actors: drones, artillery, and other long-range strike capability.
I've read a lot of military history and what concerns me is that we really don't know where this new technology will take us.
Example:
Most people think of WWII Germany and they immediately think "Blitzkrieg" and "tanks". Thus, they assume that Germany was able to overrun France so quickly in 1940 because Germany had:
- Really good tanks, and
- A lot of tanks, and
- More tanks than France.
None of of those things are true. The German tanks circa 1940 were good but not great and the French tanks were arguably better. What is unarguable is that the Germans absolutely did NOT have a lot of tanks in 1940 (at least by later war standards), and that the Germans had LESS tanks in 1940 than the French.
Anyone unaware of those things is probably wondering, "Ok
@medinabuckeye1 , if German tanks in 1940 weren't all that great and they didn't have all that many of them and they had less tanks than France, then how did they overrun France so quickly?"
The answer is superior doctrine. This seems obvious in retrospect and by mid-war everyone understood it but the Germans were the first to figure out that the most effective way to deploy tanks was to mass them and use them to smash through weak points in the enemy's line then encircle and destroy large enemy formations from behind. By 1943 this is what everyone was trying to do (see, for example, the Russian attack at Stalingrad in late 1942/early 1943). However, just a few years earlier in 1940 this was a completely untested idea. Most everyone else including especially the French viewed tanks as "infantry support" rather than a stand-alone weapon system. Thus, French tanks were scattered along the front. The French has more overall but where the Germans chose to attack they had a LOT more because they massed them and smashed through a weak spot.
Similarly the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was such a stunning (tactical) success because it was the first use of a truly large scale mass of Aircraft Carriers. Even the British success at Taranto was with only (IIRC) two carriers. The Japanese sent six carriers to attack Pearl Harbor and, at the time, that was the largest grouping of carriers that had EVER been deployed. Some admirals in other navies had been arguing for this approach but the older, 'battleship admirals" saw Aircraft Carriers much like the French Generals saw Tanks. They viewed the Battleship as paramount and the Carrier as something of a "battleship support weapon".
Everyone in 1939 knew about tanks and carriers. Both had been around since the end of WWI but the late WWI tanks and carriers were first generation weapons that weren't very good. The tanks of 1918 were notoriously unreliable and not very well armored and the carriers of 1918 were miniscule rebuilds of other ships that carried a few primitive aircraft that more closely resembled the Wright flier than a modern plane. By 1939/40 tanks were modern, reliable, and well armored. Carriers were humongous and carried up to almost 100 all metal, single-wing, 350+ MPH planes.
The powers that were the most successful in 1939/40 weren't always the powers that had the most, they were the powers that deployed theirs most effectively.
This concerns me because we don't yet KNOW what the best methods of waging war will be in a world with A2/AD, drones, surveillance, remote warfare, etc. We can speculate but until a major war is fought we don't actually KNOW.