Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

I know anecdote isn't data, but my wife's office was replacing their medical assistant a little over a year ago. Resumes coming in were scarce and weak.

They actually just went through another hiring. Resumes were much more plentiful and higher quality, and the applicants seemed more motivated and willing to follow up after interviews.

The plural of anecdote is data.  I'm seeing the same thing here.  

FWIW:
I do think that @bayareabadger has a point here:

It strikes me that we may, and a certain way, the entering a bit of a post-optimism era in America. Too many people’s political hobby-ism runs too deep.

We are so polarized/politicized that at any given time half the country is going to have trouble seeing the good signs but I think he would agree that there is an equal and opposite impact that is obvious here:

Because every single metric has improved the last 6 months, year, and 18 months. 
But half the talking heads tell them nothing has improved.

 
@OrangeAfroMan 's statement is pretty obviously false, I think everyone here except OAM would acknowledge that.  

So what is going on?  

For one thing there is a subset of reality-detached liberals like OAM for whom everything is hunky-dory because their party is in power.  There is also a subset of reality-detached conservatives for whom everything is terrible because their party is out of power.  These people can be safely ignored.  

For the rest of us there is evidence to consider.  @betarhoalphadelta 's anecdote is ominous.  I've seen the same thing.  I've posted here that payrolls (total gross) are dropping locally, another anecdote.  Unemployment is up.  Debt (both personal and national) is up.  There definitively are troubling signs.  

I stick to my earlier statement:
The presidential race comes down to a timing issue.  The economy IS slowing and Kamala IS "unlikable".  The longer this thing drags on the more impact those two factors will have.  If the election was in January I'd be nearly certain of a victory for the R's.  If the election was a month ago I'd have been nearly certain of a victory for the D's.  With the election being in November (half-way between those) I think it is a toss-up.  Early voting favors the D's because the sooner people vote the less time they'll have to notice that the economy is slowing and that the D candidate is "unlikable".  

In a political season of course (which is about all the time), one side will be claiming the economy is great, and the other a disaster.  Partisans will lap that up uncritically and blame the "media" if some folks think otherwise.  and yes, we can easily cite various economic figures that have degraded over the past 6-12 months.  They haven't collapsed of course, but many are clearly sliding.  Partisans will still claim it's all rosey.  Or a megadisaster.

This is exactly my point.  People who say either:

• Every single metric is improved, or
• It is a megadisaster

Are two sides of the same coin.  These idiots will simply refuse to look at evidence because, for them, ideology trumps reality.  Both groups can be safely ignored.  

Inflation can hurt some stock prices, especially the "dividend stocks".  But investors will look at top line sales and bottom line profits of course and both would often get bumped by inflation some.

That said, my own portfolio is way up under Biden.  I can't say how much because I use the funds to pay bills, and I had some unique expenses this year (new car for one).

I have a bit of a subconscious tracker that operates in my mental background and is vaguely aware of how much things should cost.  Things like groceries, I'm more acutely aware of because I frequently do some grocery shopping and I'm in charge of the household budget.  It's quite amazing how much groceries have shot up lately.  I used to budget $500/month for our groceries just about 4 or 5 years ago.....prior to Covid, really.  Our budget is now $750/month, and I sweat to you we're not coming home with as many groceries as we used to.  We've all had to give up a few "luxury" grocery items.  However, we're fortunate that such an increase isn't breaking us. 

But I don't really keep my ear to the ground for real estate prices.  I depend more on the subconscious tracker thing.  My stepson who still lives with us came home the other day and was complaining about how unaffordable homes are now and how it's going to be impossible to get a house when he graduates college.  I know that he's prone to exaggeration and also doesn't budget very carefully and also probably has unrealistic expectations of starting out with the same standard of living on his own that he has here, under us.  I told him no, no, you're just going to have to learn to watch your spending more closely and be willing to cut way down on a lot of the hobbies you spend money on.  He said I didn't know what I was talking about, so I said let's do some house shopping in our area and start planning a budget for him based on what he can reasonably expect to start out making as an engineer in our area. 

Y'all.

Affording a small middle class home here is not at all like it was when I was starting out 20ish years ago.  I mean....like....he'll be in better shape than many, I suspect, because his starting salary stands to be above average.  For kicks, I started calculating things based on range of other jobs a kid might start out at whose parents don't put him/her through college or he/she opts not to go in debt over college.  It just.....doesn't work.  I don't know how many of his peers could expect to purchase a home in the near future.  His gf rents because her degree and new job don't even come close to affording her a mortgage.  Thing is, I know what she pays in rent, and imo it's insane....at least compared to what rent should be in my mind.  I paid less than she does IN AUSTIN for a nicer place, just 15 years ago.  Her apartment is a long way from the city and is small, and old.  And it's by far the cheapest thing she found in our area.  If she wanted to live closer to her job, or in a better apartment, she can't even afford that.  I think they'll probably get married soon after he graduates and pool their resources, but wow.  Real estate prices have far outpaced the wages.  It's just not the same for them as it was for me.  

It's also possible--in fact I'd say likely--that inflation drives the stock market up just as it drives the prices of everything else up.

Why would inflation inflate the cost of food, and housing, and goods & services, and not inflate stock prices?

This is something that has always bothered me about Capital Gains Taxation. 

The Federal Government causes inflation by printing money then taxes people for "gains" that aren't even real.

Example:
Let's say I bought $10,000 worth of XYZ stock then there was 20% inflation and the value of my XYZ stock went up to $12,000.

I've gained NOTHING. The $12k that my stock is now worth is worth only what $10k was worth when I bought the stock and yet if I sell, the government will tax my $2k "gain" thus leaving me with less purchasing power than I had before. 

I have a bit of a subconscious tracker that operates in my mental background and is vaguely aware of how much things should cost.  Things like groceries, I'm more acutely aware of because I frequently do some grocery shopping and I'm in charge of the household budget.  It's quite amazing how much groceries have shot up lately.  I used to budget $500/month for our groceries just about 4 or 5 years ago.....prior to Covid, really.  Our budget is now $750/month, and I sweat to you we're not coming home with as many groceries as we used to.  We've all had to give up a few "luxury" grocery items.  However, we're fortunate that such an increase isn't breaking us. 

But I don't really keep my ear to the ground for real estate prices.  I depend more on the subconscious tracker thing.  My stepson who still lives with us came home the other day and was complaining about how unaffordable homes are now and how it's going to be impossible to get a house when he graduates college.  I know that he's prone to exaggeration and also doesn't budget very carefully and also probably has unrealistic expectations of starting out with the same standard of living on his own that he has here, under us.  I told him no, no, you're just going to have to learn to watch your spending more closely and be willing to cut way down on a lot of the hobbies you spend money on.  He said I didn't know what I was talking about, so I said let's do some house shopping in our area and start planning a budget for him based on what he can reasonably expect to start out making as an engineer in our area. 

Y'all.

Affording a small middle class home here is not at all like it was when I was starting out 20ish years ago.  I mean....like....he'll be in better shape than many, I suspect, because his starting salary stands to be above average.  For kicks, I started calculating things based on range of other jobs a kid might start out at whose parents don't put him/her through college or he/she opts not to go in debt over college.  It just.....doesn't work.  I don't know how many of his peers could expect to purchase a home in the near future.  His gf rents because her degree and new job don't even come close to affording her a mortgage.  Thing is, I know what she pays in rent, and imo it's insane....at least compared to what rent should be in my mind.  I paid less than she does IN AUSTIN for a nicer place, just 15 years ago.  Her apartment is a long way from the city and is small, and old.  And it's by far the cheapest thing she found in our area.  If she wanted to live closer to her job, or in a better apartment, she can't even afford that.  I think they'll probably get married soon after he graduates and pool their resources, but wow.  Real estate prices have far outpaced the wages.  It's just not the same for them as it was for me.

I just can't imagine what could be driving up demand for housing.

So are home prices just an outlier? If real wages are higher now than they ever have been, and inflation has been largely under control for the past several decades, then consumer buying power should be fairly strong.  And yet nobody can afford a new home.