I've actually made the argument [elsewhere] that abortion was a virtue signaling issue for a lot of Republican women. They could be the most vociferous pro-life advocates publicly, but with the knowledge that if they [or their daughters] ever needed an abortion, it was available, due to Roe.
Once Roe was overturned, they realized that availability of abortion was actually in jeopardy. And what we see at the ballot box is that even in Republican states like Kansas, keeping availability legal won resoundingly (60/40) at the ballot box. It did this DESPITE polling to lose 43/47, in a state which Trump carried 56/42. How to explain that??
My guess is that there were a bunch of Republican women arguing publicly that they were going to vote pro-life, that were telling their husbands and fathers and everyone else that they were going to vote pro-life, and then in the secrecy of the ballot box said "nope". Because they realized that when it REALLY came down to it, if they [or their daughters/granddaughters] needed an abortion, they wanted it to remain available.
This isn't impossible but I do notice one weakness in it immediately. I think your statement that these "virtue signaling Republican Women", "(tell) their husbands and fathers . . . that they were going to vote pro-life" implies two things about their "husbands and fathers":
- That their husbands and fathers have significant control/influence (not actually since you posit that once Roe was overturned they balked), and
- That the Abortion issue was REALLY important to their husbands and fathers.
I think this buys into the Leftist/Democratic/Media narrative that ONLY men are Pro-Life then from that assumption it tries to concoct a reason for women (who must by definition be Pro-Choice) to vote for Pro-Life candidates.
This is false on both counts. Despite Leftist/Democratic/Media theories, we don't live in a Patriarchy and VERY few "husbands and fathers" even attempt to exert this level of control over their wives and daughters. Additionally, the polling suggests that the Abortion issue simply isn't very important to most guys so even if they DID exert this level of control it probably wouldn't be focused on this specific issue.
My theory is that unless you are on the far fringe (either way), for a guy the Abortion issue simply isn't very important:
If you are a radical Pro-Lifer who literally believes that even a VERY early, morning after pill "abortion" is murder then the Abortion issue is probably very important to you because you see it as State Sanctioned MURDER of millions of babies. If you believe this then you more-or-less have to believe that Abortion in the modern US is literally worse than the Holocaust because it has certainly taken more "lives".
If you are a radical Pro-Choicer who literally believes that it is a abominable infringement of a woman's rights to prohibit her from Aborting a full-term fetus with no medical defects because she wanted a different color of hair, then similarly, you probably view restrictions on Abortion as a terrible injustice that must be righted at all costs.
I frankly don't think there are a lot of guys in both of those camps combined. In this thread we've seen a discussion of bans at 6-weeks, 15-weeks, viability (my threshold), third trimester bans, etc. If you are in one of these groups, the difference between 6-weeks vs 15-weeks vs viability vs 3rd trimester just isn't that big of a deal.
I'll tell you anecdotally that I've met die-hard Republican women, I am talking campaign volunteers, phone bank operators, people who don't just vote Republican but who give time and treasure to elect Republicans who are Pro-Life and otherwise would probably be Democrats or maybe independents. I've never seen nor heard of a guy like that.
I also think that people tend to move toward Pro-Life as they get older. I'm not saying completely flip from radical Pro-Choice to Radical Pro-Life just a general movement maybe from strongly Pro-Choice to weakly Pro-Choice or from weakly Pro-Life to strongly Pro-Life.
I think this makes sense. When you are at the age where you are hoping and praying that the test comes back negative, you tend to lean Pro-Choice. When you get to the age where you are hoping and praying that the test comes back positive, you tend to lean Pro-Life.
I also think generally that "virtue signaling" is pretty clearly more of a leftist phenomenon. The media, academics, etc all tell us that we need to believe in Leftist positions. Anyone who has abandoned that probably doesn't care what other people think of them or they wouldn't have abandoned it in the first place and they'd be leftist virtue signaling.