The country was starting to be frustrated, I think, with the current older class of candidates, and the recession certainly hurt Bush in 1992. Clinton looked like a fresh face who would change things up. I also think we may be in a cycle where any incumbent for President is going to be in trouble running for a second term. Voters seem to want something different, even if the different person is still part of the System, they vote hoping he/she is better and against she/he who is in office.
It's a lot easier to complain than to fix. So, the incumbent is subjected to negative ads not easily rebutted and the FNG can sort of waltz along claiming he/she will fix it all.
Imagine we hit a recession in 2025/6. The House will go Democratic, Trump won't be able to get much done that is real, and Vance, presuming he runs, will have that anchor. The Democrats run say Newsom out of CA who has a flashy campaign with some vague rhetoric and he wins, only to run into reality, and then he loses in 2032.
Meet the new boss ....
