More in Ohio currently:
To understand this you need a brief understanding of Ohio:
From 1896-2016 Ohio voted for the winner in 29 of 31 POTUS elections. That was the
most of any state. Ie, Ohio was a battleground state for more than a century.
Recently, however, Ohio has trended strongly toward Republicans. In the 2020 election Ohio voted for a non-winning Presidential candidate for the first time since voting (narrowly) for Nixon in 1960. There was a BIG difference between 1960 and 2020 though. In 1960 both the national and the Ohio elections were VERY close. In 2020 the national election was fairly close but the election in Ohio was not close at all, Ohio has become reliably Republican.
The Presidential race in Ohio is not the least bit interesting. Ohio is safely in the red camp and will vote for Donald Trump for a third time and it will not be close. Everyone knows this so there is basically no Presidential campaigning on the airwaves in Ohio.
There is, however, an increasingly interesting US Senate race in Ohio. Democrat Sherrod Brown has represented Ohio in the US Senate since taking out Republican Mike DeWine in the 2006 election. This is pretty impressive considering DeWine's extensive successful electoral history. Beyond that, Brown didn't just beat Mike DeWine, he clobbered him by more than 12%. Then he won re-election in 2012 and 2018 by about 7% each time against Josh Mandel and Jim Renacci respectively.
More than a month ago I learned that the NRSC was basically giving up on Ohio so I assumed that Sherrod Brown was a shoe-in but it hasn't worked out that way. Brown's Republican opponent is Bernie Moreno and Moreno is making a race of it. The latest polling says that it is neck-and-neck and Moreno may even have a slight lead depending on which pollster you trust.
The first thing I want to note here is that Brown is running at least 6-8% ahead of the Democratic Presidential Candidate in Ohio. In years past (basically all of 1896-2020) that would have been enough to EASILY win. However, Ohio has trended so strongly Republican that beating the D POTUS candidate by 8%+ might not be enough for Sherrod Brown because Harris might lose Ohio by more than 8% even if she ultimately wins nationally.
About three weeks ago I suddenly started seeing Moreno ads on YouTube. Let me clarify. They aren't actually "Moreno ads". They aren't paid for by the Moreno campaign and they are definitively NOT pro-Moreno. The ads are negative campaigning against Sherrod Brown and the disclaimers all say that they are paid for by various super-PAC's.
Then, about a week ago, I started seeing Brown ads. Just as above, they aren't actually "Brown ads". They aren't paid for by the Brown campaign and the are NOT pro-Brown.
I honestly don't think I've seen a single ad that was pro either. Instead I've seen endless anti ads. It is ALL negative campaigning.
So what are the biggest weaknesses of the two candidates based on what I'm seeing? Well:
- For Brown #1 is the border and the related issue of funding for illegal entrants. Most of the anti-Brown ads focus on his votes for amnesty and/or votes for benefits for illegals.
- For Brown #2 is Trans-mania. The anti-Brown ads that aren't focused on illegal immigration are focused on allowing men to compete in women's sports.
- For Moreno it is abortion and nothing else. The anti-Moreno ads have hit him on his pro-life stance.
A number of the anti-Brown ads have taken an interesting approach to negative campaigning. In what I assume is an effort to limit blowback they aren't saying that Brown is this or that, they are saying that "Washington changed Sherrod Brown". I actually think this serves two functions. First, it limits blowback because it avoids saying that the person did something and instead blames it on "Washington" and everybody (L and R) hates "Washington". Second, it allows former Brown voters to excuse themselves. Ie, "I didn't change my views, 'Washington' changed my guy so now I'll vote for a new guy."
