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Topic: OT-Politics Thread: please TRY to keep it civil, you damned dirty apes

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847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33964 on: July 05, 2024, 10:02:50 AM »
Even a crash in CA would hurt us.

We are partners in a lot of rental properties in Compton, LB, etc.

I'm really hoping the General Partner will sell these soon, but she's trying to make up for monies we lost when the dumbass Governor in CA made rents free due to the pLandemic.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33965 on: July 05, 2024, 10:50:03 AM »
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33966 on: July 05, 2024, 11:00:26 AM »
I was lucky enough to buy some Apple and Costco when I started managing my portfolio, my advisor shied away from them as too expensive.  I didn't buy that much because they were pricey, but enough to make a large difference in my overall performance.  I hit a few others that did really well, and 4-5 that tanked.

The stock market has mostly been raging since I retired.

bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33967 on: July 05, 2024, 12:28:40 PM »

A housing crash would probably put me out of business. I don't have the same energy to get through it like I did in 2008.

So, thanks for your wishes.


Hmmm, that's an interesting conundrum.

One of the annoying things about economics is that while it's not exactly zero-sum, everything has a flipside. If homes appreciate at high rates, that's good for people who own homes, build homes, use homes as debt tools, tax homes (which is less ideal for those who own homes). If they go down, it's good for folks who actually want to buy homes and slows inflation.

Sort of similar to gas prices. If they go down, people lose jobs, companies likely fail, but I pay less at the pump and that feels good.

Granted, we also have an arm of the government that can drive up the price of houses with low interest rates, but for a moment it creates more buying power while also pushing inflation.

So what's good for your business' bottom line is to some degree bad for my bottom line as someone who wants to get into home owning. And of course another topic that a home has to hit a certain level of value to be worth building in the first place. Circle of life, I suppose.

847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33968 on: July 05, 2024, 12:41:28 PM »
There are 5 subdivisions going up around me right now, each with at least 300 homes. One has almost 2000 units. 

I may have to pursue my Florida licenses. I'm only licensed in Illinois (PE and PLS) and Wisconsin (PLS).

Homebuilders are a true benchmark for our economy. When they are doing well, we have a great economy. 

This, of course, can be regional too. They are doing great here. They are doing just OK in Illinois, but still building subdivisions. I'm glad we have Lennar as a client.

It's weird. Chicago is saving Illinois and Chicago is killing Illinois.
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FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33969 on: July 05, 2024, 12:48:00 PM »
Sort of similar to gas prices. If they go down, people lose jobs, companies likely fail, but I pay less at the pump and that feels good.
_____________________

what companies fail?

Chevron, BP, Exxon, Shell???

or Saudi Arabian Oil Co
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bayareabadger

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33970 on: July 05, 2024, 01:10:07 PM »
Sort of similar to gas prices. If they go down, people lose jobs, companies likely fail, but I pay less at the pump and that feels good.
_____________________

what companies fail?

Chevron, BP, Exxon, Shell???

or Saudi Arabian Oil Co
My guess would be smaller ones involved in more fringe elements. Possibly some equipment companies in competitive spaces.

All those big companies almost assuredly work with and subcontract with a men’s number of smaller companies, and they would likely feel a crunch if production slows down.

847badgerfan

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33971 on: July 05, 2024, 01:24:17 PM »
Most small businesses were doing extremely well until March, 2020.

Many didn't survive it, but a vast many did. Much depended on the lockdown status, of course. I know a guy from the Chamber in my old town who went belly-up. He owned and operated 5 gyms in the area, which you could not go to. Same with a lady who owned a martial arts studio, and many restaurants.

If you were deemed "essential" in Illinois, like engineers, contractors, liquor stores and pot stores, you did fine - so long as you could have office employees working remote (or outside) or have in-store workers.

We did OK, but it cost us a ton of money to get everything in order to enable remote working. Clients stopped paying their bills (most eventually did), so PPP saved us from losing our people. 

The issue was that partners could only pay themselves up to a certain amount, so we took substantial pay cuts (some much more than others - me).

Government employees had it made, of course.

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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33972 on: July 05, 2024, 01:27:58 PM »
Oil prices would have to collapse to impact majors, and midlevel companies.  Some minors would fail if the price was cut in half.  If the price went under say $10/bbl, Shell et al. would be badly hurt, but would survive (probably) if it didn't last more than 2-3 years.  The majors have a lot of going costs they can cut quickly.

Exploration would drop to naer zero, developing new fields would stop, research would drop, a lot of folks would be laid off.

This could only happen if we had a global major depression, so buying gas at 50 cents per wouldn't be a plus.

FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33973 on: July 05, 2024, 01:50:05 PM »
I'd like to pay $1.99

I think you could take that out of profits w/o hurting too many

It's $2.99 here now
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FearlessF

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33974 on: July 05, 2024, 01:53:01 PM »
Caesar salad has something to celebrate: It’s turning 100.

Italian immigrant Caesar Cardini is said to have invented the dish on July 4, 1924, at his restaurant, Caesar’s Place, in Tijuana, Mexico. It was a steamy night, and Cardini was struggling to feed an influx of Californians who had crossed the border to escape Prohibition.

In the middle of the dining room, Cardini tossed whole Romaine leaves with ingredients he had on hand, including garlic-flavored oil, Worcestershire sauce, lemons, eggs and Parmesan cheese. A star was born.

Tijuana plans to commemorate the anniversary this month with a three-day food and wine festival, and the unveiling of a statue of Cardini. Caesar’s – an elegant restaurant Cardini opened in Tijuana a few years after the salad was born – says it still makes as many as 300 Caesar salads each day.

Unlike some other menu items from the early 20th century – think creamed liver loaf or aspic – Caesar salad remains a perennial favorite. Around 35% of U.S. restaurants have Caesar salad on their menus, according to Technomic, a restaurant consulting firm. And nearly 43 million bottles of Caesar salad dressing – or $150 million worth -- have been sold in the U.S. over the past year, according to Nielsen IQ.


Beth Forrest, a professor of liberal arts and applied food studies at the Culinary Institute of America, said it took a few years for Caesar salad to hit the mainstream. A recipe for it didn’t make “Joy of Cooking,” one of the most popular American cookbooks, until the 1951 edition. Throughout the 1960s and 1970s, Caesar salad was often prepared tableside, giving it an air of spectacle and sophistication, she said.
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Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33975 on: July 05, 2024, 01:56:59 PM »
Sure, $2 gas would be "nice" for us drivers.  Bear in mind that around $0.50-60 is taxes, so that is an effective floor.  Then you have transportation costs, storage, refining, profit ...   you'd need around $40/bbl oil prices.




Cincydawg

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33976 on: July 05, 2024, 02:00:22 PM »
I had bought into the electric car story around 2019 to an extent, meaning I thought the projections were about right, and that we'd be seeing a lot more EVs around the world than now seems probable.  That would of course mean lower demand for oil.  

One competing thing is the global economy is mostly perking along which means more cars of all kinds being bought.  The EIA has projected the US would hit about 50% EVs by 2050.  Maybe so, probably not.  I now think PHEVs will become more popular than BEVs.  That still would lower demand of course.

But not for a while.  As for CO2 emissions, anything other than a global economic meltdown won't have much impact on them.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: OT-Catch all thread - Personal attacks will result in a time out
« Reply #33977 on: July 05, 2024, 02:14:34 PM »
Exploration would drop to naer zero, developing new fields would stop, research would drop, a lot of folks would be laid off.

This could only happen if we had a global major depression, so buying gas at 50 cents per wouldn't be a plus.
Per the first point, I think the big thing would be that a lot of oilfields that may only be profitable at a certain oil price would start dropping below that. As you point out, low oil prices would drastically reduce exploration and development of fields that aren't "easy". Which as I understand it, is many of the ones in the US. So the Saudis would likely be fine, while we'd feel the crunch in the US oil & gas industry. (Isn't there someone on the board from that industry? @Gigem or @Riffraft maybe? Would love to hear from an expert.)

Per the second point, that's one of my big arguments about buying gold as hyperinflation protection. What happens if gold goes to say $15K/ounce due to hyperinflation? You can't eat it. You can use it to buy currency, but why would you want that trash currency? In an inflationary period, gold can do really well as an investment. In a SHTF hyperinflationary scenario, it's about as useless as paper currency. 

 

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