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Over in the Week 8 Power Rankings thread we have an extensive debate about the appropriate ranking for Cincinnati and what it will and should take for them to be included in the CFP. 

Within that discussion I pointed to the deficiencies of Cincinnati's schedule including their OOC schedule.  Their OOC opponents this year were (rankings from this site):

• #8 Notre Dame
• #57 Indiana
• #95 Miami, OH
• FCS MurraySt (note that MurraySt is not even a good FCS team, they suck.  They are currently 3-4 overall and 0-2 in the FCS OVC). 

This wouldn't be a bad OOC for a P5 team and in a normal year it would be fine for Cincy but if we are being asked to treat UC like a legitimate NC contender this schedule is horrible because unlike a P5 team that plays legitimate opponents in conference, Cincy's best conference opponents are #36 SMU, #44 UCF, #71 Tulsa, and #92 Tulane.  With the arguable exceptions of SMU and UCF everybody else on Cincy's league schedule is the equivalent to a payday game for an actual, legitimate NC contender.  For example, tOSU actually did play Tulsa, won by 3TD's and I believe that is generally viewed as a bad mark on tOSU's resume. 

I pointed out the example of FSU.  Back when FSU was an emerging contender they REALLY took an "anyone, anywhere" approach to scheduling.  In 1981 the Seminoles took a five game road trip to play Nebraska, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Pitt (this was when Pitt was good), and LSU.  My contention has always been that if a G5 school wants to be considered for the CFP they need to copy what FSU did and play enough high-end P5 teams such that going undefeated would be a significant accomplishment.  Ie, they need to be more than just the tallest midget.  @FearlessF similarly argued that Cincy's OOC should have been four P5's including at least a couple that end up reasonably highly ranked. 

@betarhoalphadelta pointed out several problems with Fearless and my argument:

• Schedules are made years or a decade or more in advance so Cincy's AD making this schedule in say 2010 had no idea how good or bad Cincy would be in 2021. 
• Bowl eligibility is important and scheduling four good P5 opponents in most situations would simply put a team like Cincy in an 0-4 hole thus necessitating that they go at least 6-2 in their league to go bowling. 

My proposed solution is that the G5 should form a scheduling alliance in which the last two games for all G5 teams (it has to be an even number for this to work) are set by some committee very late in the season.  If deemed necessary, each team could be told in advance which week they were home and which week they were away (this would cut your potential match-ups in half but should still result in a pretty good arrangement). 

If you look at the current AP Poll there are 6 G5 teams:

• #2 Cincy 7-0 AAC
• #19 SMU 7-0 AAC
• #21 SDSU 7-0 MWC
• #23 UTSA 8-0 CUSA
• #24 CCU 6-1 SBelt
• #25 BYU 6-2 Independent

None of these teams will finish with an SoS comparable to the top P5 teams.  Their SoS rankings range from a high of #75 for SMU to a low of #126 for UTSA.  For comparison, the 19 P5 teams in the current AP top-25 have SoS rankings that range from a high of #3 for Auburn to a low of #70 for Kentucky.  Additionally, this gap will grow substantially once the CG's are played because while the SECCG will be something like #1 UGA vs #3 Bama and the B1GCG will be something like #5 tOSU vs #9 Iowa the only G5 league with two ranked teams is the AAC with #2 and #19.  Ie, the AACCG is the only G5 CG with a plausible chance to match two ranked teams and even there one of the two is likely to be somewhere around #20. 

So in CG weekend the P5 CG winners are all going to pick up an extra high-end quality win while the G5 CG winners simply aren't. 

So my solution is for the G5 teams to all agree to set aside the last two weekends for match-ups set by a G5 Committee that would be designed to give each G5 team two roughly equivalent match-ups.  In a year like this when Cincinnati is the highest ranked G5 and angling for a CFP spot, they'd get something like SDSU at home and UTSA on the road.  Under the same arrangement, in a year when Cincy sucks they'd get a home and a road game against equivalently crappy G5 teams such that they should always be getting two competitive games that could go either way. 

IMHO this would be a rankings bonanza because the high-end games would essentially be CFP showcases.  This would also massively improve Cincy's argument for a CFP spot because replacing FCS MurraySt and #95 MiamiOH with #19 SDSU and #24UTSA (going back to the 1-130 rankings here) would be an enormous improvement.  Cincy's schedule still wouldn't be as good as most P5 Champions but at least they'd be getting into the same ballpark. 

Going back to the comparison of tOSU's and Cincy's schedules assuming that both make their respective CG where they play Iowa and SMU respectively, here are tOSU's schedule and Cincy's actual and theoretical schedules under that model:


I think this is a good way to illustrate just how woefully deficient Cincy's schedule is compared to tOSU's.  Their marquee game against ND is roughly comparable to tOSU's top few games but after that they fall woefully short at each step.  Their second best opponent is ranked 29 spots behind tOSU's, their third best is 26 spots behind tOSU's, etc. 

My proposal wouldn't completely fix the problem for Cincy but it would help a LOT.  Their second and third best opponents would only be 12 and 14 spots behind tOSU's 2nd and third best opponents.  SMU isn't really comparable to Iowa and PSU but they are a heck of a lot closer than UCF and IU. 

With their current schedule it would be ridiculous to put Cincy in over a 2-loss B1G or SEC Champion but with this proposal at least they'd have an argument. 

Problems with this...

1. This means that G5 have to sacrifice 2 OOC matchups, which means fewer paycheck games AND fewer chances to play P5 teams and actually bolster their SOS.

      - I think this one is slightly mitigated by the fact that they may rarely schedule more than 2 P5 teams OOC to begin with. If they do so, and they start 2-0, then they probably secure bowl eligibility by week 6 anyway so the chance of losing their marquee G5 matchup is not a big thing. If they do so, and they start 0-2, then they probably get matched up with less problematic G5 teams in the last two weeks so they still have chances at wins there. But it does basically remove two guaranteed [or close to] wins from the schedule.

Your own answer is basically what I would say.  Yes, it removes two OOC matchups that they otherwise could set themselves but it replaces them with two OOC matchups that will ALWAYS be roughly equivalent teams.  If they get to the last two weeks at 5-5 they'll have a home and a road game against roughly 5-5 G5 opponents so win the home game and go bowling.  If they get there at 10-0 they'll have two games against the best the G5 has to offer to help boost their SoS.  If they get there at 2-8 they'll play two similarly bad G5 opponents but in that case who cares since they can't do anything anyway.  

Problems with this...
2. How far does this get you? Let's say the G5 does this, and it's this year. Cincinnati has scheduled and beaten a ranked "P5" Notre Dame and a mediocre P5 Indiana. They then go and beat #21 SDSU and #23 UTSA, knocking both out of the rankings for losing to Cincy.

Do you really think that beating Notre Dame, Indiana, UTSA, and SDSU, and going 13-0, is going to move the needle to the extent that they're going to get in over a 12-1 CC Ohio State or Alabama? Or do they STILL need to hope that there aren't more than three 1-loss P5 helmets and that this just barely gets them in over an 11-2 or 10-2 Alabama.

It depends on what the other two OOC games are.  Using the example of Cincy this year it STILL doesn't get them an SoS anywhere close to tOSU (especially if tOSU makes the B1GCG) but at least the gap isn't as ridiculous as it is now.  

You are likely right that SDSU and UTSA would get knocked out of the rankings for losing to Cincy but where they would end up would also depend on how they did in their other Schedule Alliance game and how they did in their CCG's.  

I don't think it would be enough to get a 13-0 Cincy this year in over a 12-1 B1G Champion tOSU or 12-1 SEC Champion Bama because Cincy's schedule wouldn't be nearly as good.  That hypothetical 12-1 tOSU would have a loss to Oregon but they'd also have four wins over top-15 teams.  Cincinnati wouldn't have any losses but they'd only have one win over a top-35 team and in my view 4-1 against the top-15 is MUCH better than 1-0 against the top-35 for the simple reason that upsets happen.  One game will never be enough to convince me because I KNOW that the best team doesn't always win.  

What it would do, at least if the decision were up to me, is get them in over almost any non-Champion P5 team and most 2-loss P5 Champions.  Both would be dependent on the relative SoS of the non-Champion or 2-loss P5 Champion.  I mean, if tOSU scheduled (this year) Georgia, Bama, and Oregon as their OOC and UGA/Bama played in the SECCG while Oregon won the P12 that is a RIDICULOUSLY tough schedule.  I'd definitely take a 2-loss B1G Champion tOSU over 13-0 Cincy in that case but I've never actually seen a P5 team play a schedule like that so it is probably a moot point.  

Bottom line, it doesn't completely solve Cincy's (and basically all G5 Teams') SoS deficiency but it goes a LONG way toward closing the gap.  

Easiest solution is to back to bowl games and arguments. It was more fun.

Word.

Also, eliminate all ESPN commentary.  They're allowed to broadcast games and that's it.

Speak for yourself.  If there were no ESPN commentary, who would tell me what to think?

What in the world are y'all doing in Florida, anyway?  There's no Great Lakes for your boat, muggy as hell, and hurricanes to boot.  

Actually, that makes me wonder what I'm doing here.

Tell Mrs. 847 hello.  I may or may not have grown up a little bit since y'all saw me last.  

It should be enough to go with the proposed 12-team playoff with the top 6 conference champions.  Even in a year with 2 unbeaten G5 champs, all you would have to do is be better than the worst P5 champ or else be in the top 7-12 overall.

This would work even better if CUSA ends up folding then you are down to just 9 FBS conferences total,  and the G5 becomes the G4.

AND of course Cincy's problem will partially be solved in the future when they move to the Big 12,  which will still sort of be  P5 in the future.

Or the P5 becomes the P4, because the B12 no longer rates.

yup, computer rankings and poindexters on the selection committee have no clue, conference champs rule