Saturday now, and I'll do Sunday later
| 34. Missouri Tigers |
| #10 in SEC |
Missouri’s 8-5 season is better than it sounds when you consider they had a 6 week stretch in the middle where they played #2 Georgia, at South Carolina, at #1 Alabama, Memphis, #12 Kentucky and at #13 Florida. They did pick up solid road wins at Florida, Purdue and Tennessee. But it does feel like if 8-5 is what Missouri can do with an elite quarterback like Drew Lock, how much better can it get in the SEC East, with Georgia rolling, Florida seemingly back on their feet, and Tennessee presumably getting better? It’s probably going to have to start on defense, which loses Terry Beckner Jr. from the line, but otherwise returns all of their key pieces from a group that has vastly improved over the past two seasons, and looks likely to improve again. The most obvious place for improvement is on the back end where a young group last year with just one senior and two juniors in the two deep could safely put the 2017 disaster in the rear view mirror. They have allowed the most passing yards in the SEC for two years running, but have held opponents to a very respectable 55.7% completion rate. They just need to limit the big plays allowed, surrendering over 14 yards per completion last year, bottom 15 nationally. You have to hope a lot of that is youth issues, because the group simply looks better than their raw numbers. Getting an actual pass rush better than #91 in the country will help, but the loss of Beckner, along with Terez Hall, makes where that comes from a mystery. The offense, even without Drew Lock, should continue to be fine. Barry Odom bolstered his depth chart with the addition of Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant, whose only fault was not being Trevor Lawrence. He’s not Drew Lock, but he’s a very good college quarterback, and has 18 games of starting experience at the highest level. Granted with the fastest pace in the SEC, Missouri ran a ton of plays in general, but even with Lock, they ran the ball 42.5 times per game. They did that by utilizing three backs. All three could have been back, but Damarea Crockett, who started the first three games, and was actually the least effective of the three, decided to go pro before he lost even more carries to Larry Rountree and Tyler Badie. Crockett did have 147 carries a year ago, so where will those now come from? Possibly Bryant, who is a better runner than Drew Lock, who himself wasn’t bad, and got 55 carries. The passing game certainly appears to be less explosive. Bryant doesn’t have Lock’s arm, and he doesn’t have Emanuel Hall, the ultimate deep threat. Hall led the team in receiving yards, despite missing four games, and finishing third in receptions, 22 behind Johnathan Johnson. But he averaged 22.4 yards per catch, second highest in the nation. The Tigers have two strong pass catching options returning in the said Johnson, and tight end Albert Okwuegbunam, but I’d expect some lengthier drives. True sophomore Kam Scott, who played in every game, and got two starts, but only caught 8 passes, is a solid option to have a breakout season if he can fill Hall’s shoes. Missouri is ineligible for a bowl game this year, due to NCAA sanctions, which also gave seniors the option to transfer without penalty, and yet not a single one did. They actually had two players other than Bryant transfer in, being quarterback Shawn Robinson from TCU and receiver Jonathan Nance from Arkansas. That tells me the program Odom has is rock solid.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Larry Rountree III, Junior |
| WR | Johnathan Johnson, Senior |
| TE | Albert Okwuegbunam, Junior |
| . |
| LB | Cale Garrett, Senior |
| CB | DeMarkus Acy, Senior |
| S | Tyree Gillespie, Junior |
| 33. Boise State Broncos |
| #1 in Mountain West |
I’m not sure the natives are getting restless or anything, but for the standards set by what had become the marquee mid-major program, the last few years haven’t exactly met the standard. It’s not as though Boise State fell off the map or anything, but over the last four years, Boise State has no New Years Six appearances, three or more losses each season, only one conference title, a peak final ranking of #22, and an 0-3 record in the regular season games against Power 5 opponents. Those may not seem that bad, but the last time Boise State went even back to back years with three or more losses was 1997 and 1998, which was also the previous time they went consecutive years without a conference title. Since finishing #15 in 2002, they had finished ranked in the top 18 in 10 of 13 years, and never going consecutive years outside that. They haven’t finished ranked that high since 2014. All that said, the Broncos are still the favorites to win the Mountain West this year, as they are every year, and if they can find skill position players, they should be well positioned for a New Years Six bid if the AAC beats itself up. Now replacing that backfield is no small feat, with the graduation of Brett Rypien, who ranks second all time in Boise State history for passing yards; and Alexander Mattison was #8 in the nation in rushing last year, with 1,415 yards. This is where somehow not finding a ton of playing time for a backup quarterback in a year where you went 10-3 and half of your wins were by 20 or more points makes no sense. Unless Bryan Harsin knew his best option was coming in 2019. Out of the incumbents, Jaylon Henderson is not much of a passer, but is a good athlete, and Chase Cord won’t be ready to go until fall at the earliest, while recovering from a torn ACL. Hank Bachmeier from Murrieta, California, is the highest rated quarterback recruit ever for the school, who chose the blue turf over offers from schools such as Georgia, Tennessee and Cal. He’s 6’3” but needs to add to his frame a bit. Boise State also added Kaiden Bennett, to show you what they thought of their returning depth chart, and he’s more of an athlete, and likely redshirt candidate. Running back is an equal mess. Andrew Van Buren showed flashes early last season, but was almost non existent in the second half, running for just 31 yards on 8 carries over the final six games. The options at receiver seem better. While the top two are gone, the Broncos used a deep stable of options, with ten players tallying double digit receptions, and behind the top two departures, they have four returning players who all had 25 or more. To that group they added tight end Austin Griffin, the #1 JUCO tight end recruit in the nation, who should contribute immediately. As I said though, while the skill position losses are massive, everything else is ready to go, with an offensive line that returns entirely in tact, and a defense with 7 returning starters, among the top 25 in returning production. The front seven, led by Curtis Weaver, who was second in the conference with 9.5 sacks, was outstanding. They were third against the run, and led the conference in sacks. The difference between essentially the same defense, but a year older, being great, not just good, is whether the secondary figures it out. Even with all that help in front of them the Broncos allowed opponents to complete 62.8% of their passes, just barely avoiding being the worst in the Mountain West, and having the second lowest interception rate as well. Kekoa Nawahine is the one proven commodity in the back group, but cornerback Avery Williams has the athleticism, just needs to work on his ball skills. He was targeted too often for what his skill set would suggest.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| TE | Austin Griffin, Junior |
| T | Ezra Cleveland, Junior |
| G | John Molchon, Senior |
| . |
| DE | Curtis Weaver, Junior |
| CB | Avery Williams, Junior |
| S | Kekoa Nawahine, Senior |
