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Outside of the top 50.

there is substantial hope the D-line will be improved, more size, strength, & depth

apparently the transfer from Okie St will help

50. NC State Wolfpack

#9 in ACC

I’ve been higher than most on the Wolfpack over the past couple years, and it has more or less paid off.  But this year could be rough.  NC State quietly had one of the best offenses in the nation last year, second to Clemson in the ACC in ypp, thanks to the conference’s top passing offense.  That’s why the Wolfpack landed five players on the first team All-ACC offense...and now all five are gone.  Eight starters in all are gone from that side of the ball, seven of whom earned some level of all conference honors.  Not only that, but offensive coordinator Eliah Drinkwitz coached himself right into the head coaching job at Appalachian State, so there’s a new face running the show.  Well, not a new face, two of them, and not really new either, but new roles, as running backs coach Des Kitchings, who has one year of coordinating experience at Vanderbilt in 2010, and receivers coach George McDonald who was previously offensive coordinator at Western Michigan in 2005 and 2006 and Syracuse in 2013 and 2014.  It starts with an open quarterback competition, as open as any Power 5 job in the nation, with four quarterbacks, all with three or more years of eligibility, in the running.  None have any meaningful college experience, so I don’t even hazard to attempt to handicap the race right now.  Redshirt freshman Devin Leary was the most highly thought of of the four coming out of high school, but it’s not like he was some blue chipper.  That would all be well and good if whoever won the job had Kelvin Harmon and Jakobi Meyers and their combined 173 receptions, 2,233 yards and 11 touchdowns to throw to, but both declared early for the NFL Draft.  Emeka Emezie had a very respectable 53 reception, 616 yard, 5 touchdown season, but it’s a big jump in how defenses to go from a distant 3rd option to the best proven option.  For good measure the line has to replace three all-conference starters, and a 1,000 yard running back is gone from what was the conference’s second worst rushing attack to begin with.  At least they perhaps have the best kicker in the league?  The pleasant surprise last year was how well the defense held up after losing all members of what was maybe the best defensive line in the nation in 2017.  They were one of the conference’s better run defenses, although they surprisingly struggled against the pass, particularly giving up big plays.  The big find was Isaiah Moore who took over the middle linebacking spot as a redshirt freshman, and established himself as the leader of a young defense.  A lot more is going to be asked from that side of the ball this year though, to not just be surprisingly competent, but actually good.  Of the four starters lost, only Germaine Pratt is going to be obviously missed.  The one year Ted Roof co-coordinator experiment ended when he followed Drinkwitz to Appalachian State as defensive coordinator, but it seems like the co-coordinator is what Doeren wants to do, by bringing in Tony Gibson to replace him.  Gibson’s track record as a coordinator isn’t great, but he’s an outstanding recruiter, and NC State probably wasn’t going to entice him with a lesser position.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Emeka Emezie, Junior
T	Justin Witt, Junior
K	Christopher Dunn, Sophomore
	.
DE	James Smith-Williams, Senior
LB	Isaiah Moore, Sophomore
S	Jarius Morehead, Senior

49. Oklahoma State Cowboys

#7 in Big XII

On paper, replacing the Mason Rudolph to James Washington connection seemed daunting, but Dillon Stoner and Jalen McCleskey were still a formidable duo, Justice Hill was a Heisman candidate at running back, coming off a 1,400 yard season, and when has Mike Gundy ever struggled to find a quarterback?  Jalen McClesey transferred a few games into the season.  Justice Hill got hurt and had his lowest rushing output in Stillwater.  Jared Cornelius, who ended spring ball atop the depth chart, but was expected to wind up behind grad transfer Dru Brown and top recruit Spencer Sanders, wound up remaining the best option at quarterback, but did so averaging 80 yards less than Rudolph had the year before, while having one of the worst completion percentages in the Big XII, and leading the conference in interceptions.  That’s not to say Oklahoma State’s offense was bad.  But this program is built on a reliance of being elite, the year before they were top 4 nationally in passing, scoring and total offense, and being just merely good led to the worst season for the program since Gundy’s first, in 2005.  Cornelius agraduated, so now it’s Sanders’ quarterback job to lose, even though Dru Brown is back, and the Cowboys brought in another strong freshman in Brendan Costello.  You would have thought, with the new redshirt rule, Gundy would have gotten Sanders some snaps, at least in the Liberty Bowl, but he didn’t.  So this really is a trust in Gundy, trust in the recruiting rankings situation.  Hill went pro a year early, as was expected, but sophomore Chuba Hubbard might make the transition easier.  Hubbard had 740 yards last year, and actually had a higher ypc than Hill, on only 34 fewer carries.  Hubbard had 100 yard games in three of the four games to close the season once Hill got hurt, including a 145 yard, 8.1 ypc game in the Liberty Bowl.  Tyron Johnson made the surprising decision to go pro early, but Oklahoma State returns their breakout star from a year ago, Tylan Wallace, who had 86 catches for 1,491 yards and 12 touchdowns as a freshman, along with solid complimentary piece in Dillon Stoner, and a tight end in Jelani Woods, who was honorable mention all-conference as a freshman.  Oklahoma State has never had a shortage of pass catchers.  It may have a bit of a different look this year as Gundy hired Sean Gleeson away from Princeton, replacing Mike Yurcich, after six years, who returned to his home state to join Ohio State’s staff.  The defense is always a concern in Stillwater, but it could be particularly a concern this year, particularly against the run.  Oklahoma State returned a supposedly strong line from 2017, that featured three seniors, and a junior...and they couldn’t stop anyone, giving up 185 ypg on the ground, and opponents knew it, running on the Cowboys 40.2 times per game, most in the Big XII.  Three starters graduated, and the best on the line Jordan Brailford, left early for the NFL Draft.  So now, arguably the worst run defense in the conference outside of Waco has an entirely new starting defensive line.  The back seven, particularly the secondary in the 4-2-5 scheme looks to be in much better shape.  They weren’t terrible last year, but simply could not get off the field, generating a Big XII worst 5 interceptions, heavily reliant on a pass rush which generated the most sacks in the conference.  The problem is that Jordan Brailford and Jarrell Owens, the starting ends, led the team and combined for 15 of those sacks, both graduated.  The four leaders in tackles for loss are also gone.  So we’ll see if the back end was the product of a departed pass rush, or if they really can hold up.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Tylan Wallace, Junior
TE	Jelani Woods, Sophomore
T	Tevin Jenkins, Junior
.
LB	Calvin Bundage, Senior
CB	A.J. Green, Senior
S	Malcolm Rodriguez, Senior

I agree.  Davis is great, and the transfer should start.  IMO it's all on the linebacker play for Nebraska's defense.  I think the DL and CBs should be ok

they have one LB named Barry, looking for 3 others
the big thing is, can the players fit the scheme of turnovers and negative yards - big plays
hopefully, a 2nd season of the system reaps rewards

48. Duke Blue Devils

#8 in ACC

In a normal year, we might be talking about how Duke has an offense built around one of the best pure passers, a veteran laden defense, and the rest should fall into place.  Instead, it was a weak quarterback draft class, weakened farther by Justin Hebert returning to Oregon, and Daniel Jones decided to throw his hat in the ring.  Word is his performance in subsequent workouts has validated that decision, but that doesn’t make it any easier on David Cutcliffe, who was relying on Jones to cover up some major issues on offense this year, and instead has to add quarterback to the issues.  Hard to believe, but Cutcliffe is now entering his 12th year at Duke.  That makes him the co-dean of ACC coaches, and the eighth longest tenured Power Five coach.  He has taken Duke, which had only been to 8 bowls prior to his hire, two in the previous 47 years, to bowls in six of the last seven seasons.  But offensively, this may be the tallest task he’s had to face, and one maybe not even his great offensive mind can solve.  It’s not just Jones who is gone, but his top three receivers, and his starting tight end.  Backup tight end Noah Gray is the only returning receiver or tight end who had more than 10 receptions last season.  Might mean leaning heavily on the electric Deon Jackson, who excelled in special teams, but also led the team in rushing.  Getting Brittain Brown, who was the starter going into the season, back healthy will help ease some of that burden.  Duke only ran the ball 47.4% of the time last year, third lowest in the ACC, and the only two lower, Louisville and North Carolina, were almost exclusively playing from behind.  The makeup of this team necessitates a change, and with his other duties, I’m not sure you want to add a ton to Jackson’s 14.4 offensive touches per game, which means its Brown’s 9.0 that need to get up closer to 12.  He isn’t the pass catcher that Jackson is, so there are ways to get them on the field together, which the Blue Devils should look to do.  Jackson is capable of splitting out.  As far as replacing Jones, senior Quentin Harris is the favorite.  He started two games last year when Jones was hurt, and saw action in all but one game.  As a passer, he is severely limited.  In those two starts he only threw 30 total passes, and only completed 40% of them.  He did run 46 times on the season though.  With more returning talent at wideout, that may not be the direction Cutcliffe wants to go, but considering what he’s working with, that could be the wrinkle.  The positive is that the defense, particularly the secondary, has a chance to be outstanding.  The Blue Devils were a top 15 national pass defense two years ago, but graduated four of five starters, and then lost all-ACC cornerback Mark Gilbert, the lone returning starter, in the second game of 2018.  Now, the only loss is linebacker Joe Giles-Harris, who left early for the Draft.  Not to undersell that, he was Duke’s best defender, but this is a unit that by the end of the year was starting zero seniors, and adds back in Gilbert, and Dylan Singleton, who was all-ACC last year, but missed the final three games.  Even without those guys, Duke held opponents to just 6.2 ypa, second best in the ACC, better even than Clemson.  The line was the issue last year, as they struggled to generate pressure, with just 1.85 sacks per game, while allowing 5.0 ypc on the ground.  All four starters return though, led by Victor Dimukeje, who has been starting since his freshman season, and should find himself on postseason honors lists this year.  If Jones had come back, I’d trust Cutcliffe enough to figure out the rest offensively, with this experienced defense, and be a frontrunner to reach the ACC Championship Game, but without him, it will be enough just to make it seven bowls in eight years.  Both Cutcliffe and the school seem fine with the status quo.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Deon Jackson, Junior
T	Robert Kraeling, Junior
G	Rakavius Chambers, Junior
	.
DE	Victor Dimukeje, Junior
S	Dylan Singleton, Senior
S	Marquis Waters, Senior

47. Baylor Bears

#6 in Big XII

The job Matt Rhule did last year in Waco got very overlooked.  He took over a program racked by scandal, plagued with in fighting over the way Art Briles’ tenure ended, with major roster defections, and not exactly much of a pre-Briles history to build upon.  After a 1-11 debut in 2017, Baylor turned it around, beat Texas Tech in the finale to get bowl eligible, then beat Vanderbilt in the Texas Bowl to finish a 7-6 season.  Granted Briles success changed Baylor’s ceiling, but even in normal times, a 7 win season would have been cause for celebration, something they hadn’t done since their SWC days, but considering the state of the program just a year earlier, was truly remarkable.  Unsurprisingly, the Bears played pretty poorly on defense.  Even in their peak years, it wasn’t on the defensive side of the ball.  But Matt Rhule is building this program a little differently than his predecessor, and I think one of the reasons Baylor could surprise, is that I think defensively, they could take a big step forward.  A year ago Baylor gave up the worst ypp in the Big XII, at 6.5, thanks to a run defense that couldn’t stop anyone, allowing 5.4 ypc.  The secondary was actually pretty good, and returns all-Big XII players at both cornerback and secondary.  They allowed the third fewest passing yards in the Big XII, by allowing the third lowest opponents completion percentage.  Baylor went to a bowl with the worst defense in the Big XII, even with a solid secondary.  If the front seven can be just adequate, 9 wins is not out of the question.  The anchor of that front seemed to be a pair of pretty solid pass rushers, but B.J. Thompson’s transfer puts a wrinkle in those plans.  The offense looks to be flush with playmakers at the skill positions though.  Charlie Brewer was the school’s sixth different starting quarterback in less than three seasons when he was inserted late in his freshman year.  He was good again in his first full season, as a sophomore, but his accuracy remains an issue.  He threw a Big XII high 13 interceptions, and a 60% completion rate in the Big XII won’t get it done.  Maybe the Big Ten, but this is a league where half the starters wound up north of 65%.  Jalen Hurd, a Tennessee running back transfer, turned receiver, who was the conference newcomer of the year last year is gone, but that just re-establishes Denzel Mims as the #1 option, as he was in 2017.  He has over 1,800 receiving yards and 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons.  Chris Platt did not look like his 2016 pre-ACL tear version, but was still a very reliable third option, so him being granted a sixth year of eligibility, another offseason removed from his knee surgery, is a big deal.  I just picked John Lovett to list as a key player, but you could pick either Lovett or JaMychal Hasty.  Hasty probably has more upside, but simply hasn’t shown it.  But they finished last season with identical ypc, but Hasty missed two games, to Lovett’s one, and averaged 7.5 carries per game to 9.1.  But the difference between them might not even be 1-a to 1-b.  If Hasty ends up with more yards, I wouldn’t be surprised.  They want him on the field because he can do more as a pass catcher, where Lovett is a non-factor.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Charlie Brewer, Junior
RB	John Lovett, Junior
WR	Denzel Mims, Senior
	.
DE	James Lynch, Junior
LB	Clay Johnston, Senior
S	Chris Miller, Senior

46. Florida State Seminoles

#7 in ACC

For the second consecutive year, Florida State was able to challenge for the title of biggest disappointment.  So I’m going to go ahead and vastly modify my expectations from them this time.  At this time last year the excuse was that Deondre Francois missed basically all of the 2017 season.  Francois was healthy last year, he simply wasn’t good.  He tied for the conference lead in interceptions, and was 9th in passing efficiency.  Things went from bad to ugly when he was dismissed in February after his girlfriend accused him of abuse.  He still averaged 36 pass attempts per game, second only to Ryan Finley of Syracuse, simply because the Seminoles could not run the ball at all.  That wasn’t supposed to be the case, with a 1,000 yard back in Cam Akers returning, with four starting linemen.  Akers wasn’t good, but the line was downright terrible.  They allowed the second most sacks in the ACC, and paved the way for an ACC worst 2.8 ypc on the ground.  In average line yards, the Seminoles line was dead last in the FBS.  It was all such a mess that even just one year into his tenure Willie Taggert felt the need to make moves.  UMass took offensive coordinator Walt Bell off his hands, by curiously hiring him as their head coach.  Bell was seen as a great recruiter, but I have not been impressed with his offenses.  He also fired offensive line coach Greg Frey, a Florida State alum, one year after hiring him away from Michigan.  He’s trying to make the offense more explosive by hiring former Baylor offensive coordinator/offensive line coach combo, Kendall Briles and Randy Clements.  Clements coached the Big XII offensive lineman of the year every year from 2012 to 2015.  The line may take some time, but Florida State always has the athletes, that the offense should never get this bad.  Problem is with the line likely to be equally bad, and quarterback remaining a problem, how much can the coaching changes actually help?  Wisconsin transfer Alex Hornibrook may take over the quarterback job over James Blackman, who held the role as a true freshman in 2017 following the injury to Francois.  But it was unclear if Hornibrook was even going to retain his starting job in Madison, to show you where Florida State is right now.  Hornibrook was one of three quarterback transfers into Tallahassee, joined by Western Michigan transfer Wyatt Rector and Louisville transfer Jordan Travis, after Florida State did not add a quarterback in the 2019 class.  The defense was decent, but was certainly not outstanding, and the offense kept them on the field far too often.  They only allowed 5.2 ypp, third best in the ACC, but were on the field 107 more plays than their offense, resulting in ranking 9th in the ACC in total defense, and 11th in scoring defense.  They’ll have do it now without Brian Burns, who may have been the best defensive lineman in the league, considering the lack of talent around him.  Him and his ACC best 0.83 sacks per game are gone a year early to the NFL.  The Seminoles only started two seniors by the end of last year, so if the pass rush can get figured out, the rest should be ok, led by the secondary.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Cam Akers, Junior
WR	Tamorrion Terry, Sophomore
T	Jauan Williams, Junior
	.
DT	Marvin Wilson, Junior
CB	Stanford Samuels III, Junior
S	Hamsah Nisirildeen, Junior