74. North Carolina Tar Heels |
#13 in ACC |
Well that went south in a hurry. Three years after completing an undefeated ACC regular season, winning North Carolina’s only ACC divisional championship, completing their first top 15 season since 1997, and playing for the school’s first conference championship since 1980, Larry Fedora was fired after back to back 9 loss seasons, and some offseason comments regarding football head injuries that didn’t sit well in the current climate. Now the school turns back to the coach who took them to their greatest extended success in the past four decades, Mack Brown. Brown left Chapel Hill for Austin, Texas at the age of 46, and returns at the age of 67. He’s not a long term answer, but this is a school that should be able to make a strong hire, if it’s on solid footing. So his job isn’t to go win a national title. It’s to clean up a program that has had a list of on and off field issues recently, and put them in position to hire a coach that can. Due to all of the suspensions and uncertainty last year, the Tar Heels are not short on guys who have experience, particularly on offense. That was an offense that averaged 6.0 ypp, fourth best in the ACC, yet only scored 27.4 ppg. If they can do a better job of capitalizing on their opportunities this year, that alone should get them up closer to 32 or 33 ppg. They converted barely a third of their third downs, had the third worst turnover margin in the ACC, and they settled too often for field goals. They scored touchdowns on only 53.3% of their red zone trips, second worst in the conference, and it was them and Virginia below the rest of the conference by a wide margin. A rather major change occurred since I assembled these rankings, Nathan Elliott, the returning starting quarterback, and leader to resume that role in 2019, decided to leave the football team to be a graduate assistant at Arkansas State. Cade Fortin is the most obvious next choice, starting in two games last year when Elliott was injured, and being more of a running threat, averaging 5.4 ypc, but he simply is not anywhere close passing. The Tar Heels barely asked him to throw, and he still completed only 49% of his passes, and averaged under 100 ypg. Jace Ruder saw even more limited action, but was 4-5 for 80 yards and a touchdown. The highest rated recruit in Mack Brown’s first class was in state Sam Howell, who is an early enrollee, and certainly has the best pedigree of the three. He is a dual threat guy, like Fortin, but seems to already be well ahead as a passer. In what looks to be a lost Year 1 (or is it 2.1?), I wouldn’t be shocked to see the big upside freshman take the job. But oh, that defense. When Mack Brown left, he had guys like Dre Bly, Greg Ellis and Brian Simmons. This unit gave up 34.5 ppg, and was equally bad against the run and the pass. Jason Strowbridge is steady and reliable in the middle of the line, but the only guy who should feel secure going forward is Trey Morrison, who started every game except the opener at nickelback, and wound up second on the team in pass break ups and sixth in tackles. He might not be Dre Bly, but at least Brown should be a little reminded of the type of talent he had on that side of the ball when he left.
| KEY PLAYERS |
RB | Michael Carter, Junior |
WR | Dazz Newsome, Junior |
T | Charlie Heck, Senior |
| . |
DT | Jason Strowbridge, Senior |
CB | Trey Morrison, Sophomore |
S | Myles Dorn, Senior |
73. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors |
#4 in Mountain West |
I can’t be the first one to call Hawaii football the Rolo-coaster-vich? Right? Nick Rolovich took over the mess of a program from Norm Chow, coming off a 3-9 2015, and immediately turned them into a 7-7 bowl team in 2016. Then, with some expectations for 2017, Hawaii fell flat, and went 3-9 again, winning only one conference game, just to bounce back and go 8-6, with a 5-3 conference record last year. It was their first winning season in eight years. So what do we believe? That history repeats itself, and the Rainbow Warriors stumble again, or Rolovich continues to rebuild his alma mater into a contender in a West Division where Fresno State lost a ton of talent and Hawaii may actually be the favorite? Hawaii does not have that problem, returning 79% of their production, best in the conference. But how much of their success last year was merely a product of their schedule? Hawaii got off to a 6-1 start, beating three conference bottom feeders, an FCS team, Rice and Navy. Once the schedule picked up, the Warriors fell off, losing five of their final seven, and being barely competitive in the losses, of 26, 18, 30, 39 and 17. They did pick up their most impressive win of the season during that stretch, but it was over a San Diego State team that was reeling down the stretch. It’s no surprise that Rolovich, who thrived under center in June Jones’ run and gun system after Timmy Chang has relied heavily on the passing game, but the difference from some of those Jones teams is that Hawaii is serious about defense. The Jones teams were tough, but frequently undisciplined and poorly positioned defensively. Rolovich seems serious about fielding at least a competent defense, and after a dismal 2017 on that side of the ball, Rolovich brought in three new defensive assistant, including new coordinator Corey Batoon from Florida Atlantic. After being a bottom 25 defense in the nation in 2017, the Warriors were a serviceable unit in 2018, and have one of the most experienced defenses in the country entering 2019. If they can get the ypp down below 6.0, which seems very doable, the 35+ points a game this offense is going to score should be enough. This program still has June Jones’ fingerprints all over it, and let’s not pretend like Hawaii is winning on defense. They just need enough defense to sling the ball all over the yard. That, Cole McDonald did, nearly 40 times per game, while maintaining an excellent 36 to 10 TD:INT ratio. The early departure to the NFL of top receiver John Ursua hurts a bit, but Cedric Byrd and JoJo Ward return, after combining for 130 catches, 1,835 yards, and 18 touchdowns, as the second and third options. They also add Auburn transfer Nate Craig-Myers, who never realized his potential there, but has the frame of an NFL wideout, and should certainly see plenty more opportunities than he did at his first stop. Whether Hawaii was a product of their early schedule, or a program building towards what could be a great 2019 will be determined early, as they open with three straight games against Pac 12 competition. The first two, home games against Arizona and Oregon State, are winnable, and would make a huge statement that Hawaii is in fact the divisional favorite. Losing one, or even both, would not necessarily be cause for major concern, but with road games at Washington, Nevada and Boise State in the four weeks to follow, it might make a bowl a tall task, because an 0-2 start, could mean a likely 1-5 start.
| KEY PLAYERS |
QB | Cole McDonald, Junior |
WR | Cedric Byrd, Senior |
G | Solo Vaipulu, Sophomore |
| . |
DE | Kaimana Padello, Senior |
LB | Solomon Matautia, Senior |
CB | Rojesterman Farris II, Senior |