header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Does defense still win Championships?

 (Read 3656 times)

medinabuckeye1

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 8906
  • Liked:
Does defense still win Championships?
« on: January 03, 2023, 02:38:39 PM »


I looked at something similar wrt tOSU and Michigan and it was shocking how much scores have increased in that game over the decades.  

Here I wanted to analyze that with regard to the best teams in the game rather than just two specific teams.  The lines:

  • Blue dots:  From 1998-2013 this is simply the score of the winning team in the BCSNCG.  From 2014-present this is the average winning score of the two CFP semi-finals and the CFPNCG.  
  • Red dots:  Same as blue except for losers rather than winners.  
  • Green dots:  This is a rolling four-year average of winning scores in BCSNCG's and CFP games (both semi-finals and CG's) so the far left green dot is the four year average from 1998-2001 and the far right green dot is the four year average from 2019-2022.  
  • Purple dots:  Same as green except for losers rather than winners.  


The average score from 1998-2001 was roughly 30-15.  The last four years it is roughly ten points higher at 41-25.  While it has bounced around a bit, the general trend is clearly up.  

I have my own opinions but my question to you is this:  Is this a random thing or a structural change?  

Thoughts?

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7849
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #1 on: January 03, 2023, 02:44:04 PM »

I looked at something similar wrt tOSU and Michigan and it was shocking how much scores have increased in that game over the decades. 

Here I wanted to analyze that with regard to the best teams in the game rather than just two specific teams.  The lines:

  • Blue dots:  From 1998-2013 this is simply the score of the winning team in the BCSNCG.  From 2014-present this is the average winning score of the two CFP semi-finals and the CFPNCG. 
  • Red dots:  Same as blue except for losers rather than winners. 
  • Green dots:  This is a rolling four-year average of winning scores in BCSNCG's and CFP games (both semi-finals and CG's) so the far left green dot is the four year average from 1998-2001 and the far right green dot is the four year average from 2019-2022. 
  • Purple dots:  Same as green except for losers rather than winners. 


The average score from 1998-2001 was roughly 30-15.  The last four years it is roughly ten points higher at 41-25.  While it has bounced around a bit, the general trend is clearly up. 

I have my own opinions but my question to you is this:  Is this a random thing or a structural change? 

Thoughts?
I mean, just to start, the sport overall got faster. So teams are overall driving up total possessions per game.

MikeDeTiger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2990
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #2 on: January 03, 2023, 03:09:10 PM »
The year-to-year is pretty noisy so the four-year MA is more discernible, but at a glance they paint the same picture.  I think it's a structural change on two fronts.  Aggressiveness/style of offenses, and quality of QBs.  The style of play is fairly self-evident, I think.  IMO the game has more QBs now who are more capable on average than the QBs on average from when your chart starts.  Start with the QB running.  This was more of a novelty 20 years ago even though there have always been guys who could run (this doesn't apply to option offenses, obviously).  Today it's not only common, it's probably prevalent for a QB to be a good runner with designed runs factored in, which makes it a lot harder for defenses to stop the chains from moving.  It also used to be the case that in many teams' offensive schemes, the QB was only responsible for reading half the field on a given play.  Whether or not they were capable of more is moot, what matters is what they were doing.  I can't be sure about this, but today's game regularly has QBs who appear to be reading the whole field routinely.  Or they're supposed to be.  The ones who can do it effectively become your best guys.  If I'm right about that, that's a stress on defenses that didn't used to be there.  

But your question was does defense still win championships.  I'd posit that yes it does, as it arguably matters now more than ever because teams can score so much.  You need to be a team that can get a couple stops against a great offense.  Maybe not shut it down, but not allow the opponent to score every drive.  

MikeDeTiger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2990
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #3 on: January 03, 2023, 04:47:59 PM »
I downloaded a dataset that covers 2013 through 2021.  I want to practice some school stuff with it, but tell you what....help me come up with some more specific questions and I'll let you know if I find anything interesting.  "Does defense win championships?" is a specific question but it's not a very definable one. 

Maybe something like are the defenses that win NCs and/or achieve a certain metric(s) getting better on average, or worse, or staying the same.  Or maybe, does the defensive performance over time correlate with achieving certain benchmarks more or less than does offensive performance.

I really don't know.  Gotta ask the right questions. 

If I have enough time I could try to run some regression analysis and see what percentage of outcome certain factors account for.  

Honestbuckeye

  • Team Captain
  • *******
  • Posts: 5796
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #4 on: January 03, 2023, 06:32:09 PM »
It’s a good question.  Even with data- hard to answer.  

Ohio State put up 41 on a really good Georgia defense- and they scored the least of the 4 semi playoff teams.  And they did that without their best 3 RBs, best 2 WRs and best 2 TEs. 

Both teams had stops.  

Does a team with an amazing defense but not great offense ever beat a team with an amazing offense but not much defense?  In our playoff system- it hasn’t happened yet that I can recall. 

Seems like to MDT’s point- the game today- the rules, RPOs, the athletes- it’s all favoring the offense.  
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 14329
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #5 on: January 03, 2023, 06:39:02 PM »
Seems like to MDT’s point- the game today- the rules, RPOs, the athletes- it’s all favoring the offense. 
yup. 2021 Georgia was the exception, that defense had 5 NFL 1st round starters and it's best player was Nakobe Dean who went in the 3rd rd, and there were a bunch of other starters/two deep guys that weren't draft eligible that will probably be 1st and 2nd rd picks in this draft (Jalen Carter, Ringo). So yeah, unless you're fielding a defense loaded with high level NFL talent like that- the answer is no, it doesn't.

You better score points. In bunches. And you need just enough defense to get a few critical stops a game.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18838
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2023, 09:01:17 PM »
I don't think a 1-game sample from each season is meaningful at all.  Why limit yourself to that?  Take the average points allowed per game for their seasons....it multiplies the validity by 10+, right off the bat.
.
Defenses are gradually allowing more points overall, due to teams passing more.  The average pass attempt yields more yardage than the average rush attempt.  That's a basic universal, regardless of era.  
.
Aside from some flashes, no one was passing much as recently as the 1980s.  Only BYU and Miami were approaching a 50/50 run-pass ratio then.  And as we all know, coaches copy each other's successful strategies and old coaches influence young coaches over time.  Florida, FSU, Houston, and more began passing a lot in the 90s and won big.  As teams drifted away from the option, some holdouts used it as a 'great equalizer'....but people wised up and realized passing an inordinate % of the time was a better equalizer (think:  air raid).  
.
There are other reasons, but that would be #1.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18838
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #7 on: January 03, 2023, 09:14:22 PM »
The 10th-most season pass attempts over time (to avoid outliers):
1982:  378
1992:  376
2002:  472
2012:  499
2022:  480
.
So taking a long view of things, it's more passing.
To focus on the last decade or so, I'd say it's the copy-cat reaction to the read-option/back-shoulder throws. 
.
Call it a combination of both "great equalizer" offenses (option + air raid), but the longer it takes a defense to determine whether the play is a run or a pass, the more time the offense has to advance downfield before the ball is distributed.  What was once a limiting factor of a 5-step route vs a 7-step route being a sack risk is now just part of the normal offense.
.
Add to that the purposeful, back-shoulder throw - which sort of just ignores tight coverage - and you have a very difficult offense to defend AND an offense that can both gain more yardage per attempt and complete passes that wouldn't have even been attempted in the past.
.
Note:  most people don't realize how horrifically god-awful QB play was as recently as the early-90s.  Alabama won a NC in 1992 with a QB that had a 112 passer rating w/ 7 TDs and 9 INTs.  And the Heisman winner that year had under 20 TDs and only a 138 rating (that would get him benched by midseason nowadays).
« Last Edit: January 04, 2023, 12:16:43 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 7849
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #8 on: January 04, 2023, 12:31:30 AM »
Time for some stats. Here's where the title-winning teams finished in yards per play, going back:
26th/63rd
2nd
18th
28th
3rd
1st
5th
2nd
26th
2nd
2nd
1st
56th
3rd
13th
5th
8th
10th
7th
1st
28th
4th
7th

We run out before FSU and Tennessee. YPP has a couple flaws, but it does show a few things. Basically, it's usually top-10, give or take some blips. We're seeing some slightly noticeable blips of late. 

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71446
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #9 on: January 04, 2023, 07:44:21 AM »
One thing I see routinely now is a freshman QB stepping in pretty much ready to play.  By his 2nd year, he's a veteran.  This happened rarely back in the day and only if the senior was injured or was playing very badly.  The young QBs now are WAY ahead of where they were 25 years ago, I think.  It could be said of the rest of the offense as well, perhaps save RBs.

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37482
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #10 on: January 04, 2023, 08:30:04 AM »
Time for some stats. Here's where the title-winning teams finished in yards per play, going back:
offense or defense?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

MikeDeTiger

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2990
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #11 on: January 04, 2023, 09:41:43 AM »
I don't think a 1-game sample from each season is meaningful at all.  Why limit yourself to that?  Take the average points allowed per game for their seasons....it multiplies the validity by 10+, right off the bat.

This is why I want to set some reasonable benchmark of achievement other than just NC winners.  That also seems to limit the sample size beyond what may be meaningful.  Obviously it's technically correct as far as answering "does defense win championships?", but maybe there's more insight to be gained by looking at "very good" teams rather than only the NC winners.  

Maybe broaden it to playoff participants.  I dunno.

If I get the time I wanted to feed the 2014-2021 data to some machine-learning algorithms and see what comes up as a predicted winner for this year's playoff games, and if it could predict who the participants even are.  But I'm not sure how much time I'm gonna spend on this atm.  What I really wanted was some practice cleaning some real-world datasets, but these that I downloaded are pristine.  (I mean, yeah, that's what you hope for in a real world setting, but currently not what I'm interested in.)

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 18838
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #12 on: January 04, 2023, 10:17:57 AM »
This year's semis really showed that winning the NC often hinges on one play.  One play in a playoff game or even one in September. 
Take the '83 Huskers.  They were one of the most dominant teams ever.  But they don't make anyone's top 5 because of a 2-point play failing.
There is nothing special about a NC that sets them apart from other great teams.  They get a trophy.  They're the best in the history books.  But in reality, they had a play go their way, had a call go their way, lost at the right time, had other teams lose at the right time, etc.
I look at it like no team is LIKELY to win a CCG, semifinal, and NCG.  No team has a 51% chance at winning those 3 in a row. 
.
So yeah, I'd expand the pool of teams to put in your Orange Julius potato chip machine. ;)
« Last Edit: January 04, 2023, 10:23:04 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 37482
  • Liked:
Re: Does defense still win Championships?
« Reply #13 on: January 04, 2023, 10:21:40 AM »

Take the '83 Huskers.  They were one of the most dominant teams ever.  But they don't make anyone's top 5 because of a 2-point play failing.

yup, greatest offense to that point in history - not a great defense
84 Huskers had a great defense - didn't make the Orange bowl
offense was stuffed on the goal line vs the Sooners
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.