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Topic: Chance of winning and the betting line

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #28 on: April 09, 2018, 03:36:18 PM »
I know a sure fire way to make a small fortune on stock options.
I did too, right up until the crash in 2008.  

847badgerfan

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #29 on: April 09, 2018, 04:53:10 PM »
I know a sure fire way to make a small fortune on stock options.
Roulette, baby.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #30 on: April 09, 2018, 05:11:12 PM »
Buying a winery is one of the usual methods, or buying a restaurant (which I once did, a small part of one).

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #31 on: April 09, 2018, 05:19:56 PM »
It's like the old question...

Q: Do you know how to make a million dollars in auto racing? 

A: Well, first you start with $10 Million, then...

Riffraft

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #32 on: April 10, 2018, 11:03:16 AM »
I used this same research to hone my picks for the "Stupid Upsets Game" a few years ago and it has never really worked out for me.  Here was how I used it:
  • A one point dog has a 45% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 0.45 in SUG.  
  • A 3.5 point dog has a 40% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 1.4 in SUG.  
  • A 5.5 point dog has a 35% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 1.93 in SUG.  
  • A seven point dog has a 30% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 2.1 in SUG.  
  • An eight point dog has a 20-25% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 1.6 - 2 in SUG.  
  • An 11.5 point dog has a 15% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 1.73 in SUG.  
  • A two TD dog has a 5-10% chance of winning so, on average, that pick is worth 0.7 - 1.4 points in SUG.  

Thus, at least in theory, the best SUG picks are in the range of about one TD.  That said, this has never worked out for me as I've never won.  
I managed to win one season by selecting between a 10 to 15 point home dog each week. Simple but fairly effective

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #33 on: April 10, 2018, 11:35:28 AM »
I managed to win one season by selecting between a 10 to 15 point home dog each week. Simple but fairly effective
That is usually roughly how I start out but then about mid-way through the year it becomes apparent that I am too far behind to catch up that way so I start picking truly stupid upset picks.  

SFBadger96

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #34 on: April 10, 2018, 02:36:03 PM »
Topics like this always remind me of fundamental misunderstandings about statistics--and I know most of you know these things. That said, even when we know them, the results are often jarring.

As an example: If there's a 30% chance of something happenings, then that thing happening is an expected outcome. 3 out of 10 times is a lot of times. The same is true of a 5% chance; even if its a less frequent outcome, it is still an expected outcome. In sports it's often easier to see the inputs that lead to such an outcome: particularly egregious fouls (or referee's calls), injuries, sub-standard play by key players, etc.

The frequency of the event impacts our reaction to the statistics.

In my profession I see this a lot: "We have a 70% chance of winning at trial." This is a single event, so the reaction is often something like, "Awesome, we're going to win!"

But when we go to the baseball game: "This guy hits .300." There are tens of thousands of at-bats per season, so: "So glad he's at the plate for us!"

Same person reacting to the same odds drawing exactly opposite conclusions. (And that's not even touching how subjective a lot of these odds are.)

And of course, when there is a 90% chance of something happening, but it doesn't happen, that doesn't mean the 90% was wrong.

In politics people often confuse the odds of an event, with the percent of the vote. A 5-point win in a national election (with approximately 130 million voters) is a blowout, but receiving 52.5% of the vote doesn't mean the winner had a 52.5% chance of winning.

And the casino business model is pretty straight forward: it's math. It requires capital to float the math, but with tens of thousands of events (depending on the time period you're measuring), the casino wants you to win because that will convince the other people to come (and lose). While 60% is a coin flip on a single game, 52% is a lot of profit over the course of thousands of events (and ~48% is basically the best odds you'll get in a casino).

So, in the roulette example, assuming the statistics presented earlier were accurate (and it's been a long time since I've done any of that math), with a 94% chance that you win $50, there's a 6 percent chance that you lose $1000. Winning $50 94 times means you've won $4,700. Losing $1000 6 times means you lose $6000. So for every 100 tries at this theory, the casino wins $1300. And that's a theory in which the winners show restraint, and walk away after their 5% payday on $1000. Few people head to the casino to make 5%. 

Sports betting has always been a mystery to me because I don't understand how they set the line (I'm sure I could learn it, I just don't care that much), but regardless of the inputs, I'm confident in saying that the casinos know how to do it such that they encourage a lot of winning--just so long as it's a little less than the losing. Your local, college bookie may not have the capital to float the losses, but the big kids do, and they rely on it to keep raking in the dough--and building more capital.

« Last Edit: April 10, 2018, 02:45:48 PM by SFBadger96 »

Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #35 on: April 10, 2018, 02:44:50 PM »
I imagine they set the line where they think will elicit an equal number of bets ($$$ wise) on each side.  The closer they get, the more stable the line and the happier they will be.  It's a sure thing unless the bets get so unbalanced they can't fix it.

With experience, the line gets set because they know ahead of time that OSU fans are numerous and like to bet ON OSU.  So, the line when OSU plays IU "should be" 8 points but is set at 10.

I have pondered if one could beat the vig by taking every less popular team in the game.  I also think that upsets are more likely in bowl games than in conference games.

But imagine a business where you take bets on a contest and have as much money on one side as the other and you get 10%.  Done at scale, you could build huge fancy buildings in the middle of some desert.

The baseball analogy is a good one, a .300 hitter versus a .250 hitter.  The odds are not really much different but we tend to think they are.  A .400 hitter makes an out 60% of the time (ignoring unofficials) while a .200 does it 80% of the time, both figures being fairly similar in context of a single "try".


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #36 on: April 10, 2018, 03:52:05 PM »
Sports betting has always been a mystery to me because I don't understand how they set the line (I'm sure I could learn it, I just don't care that much), but regardless of the inputs, I'm confident in saying that the casinos know how to do it such that they encourage a lot of winning--just so long as it's a little less than the losing. Your local, college bookie may not have the capital to float the losses, but the big kids do, and they rely on it to keep raking in the dough--and building more capital.


The casino doesn't care if you win or lose your bet. They want a 50/50 split of  the action and they make their cut off the vig. So if they set the line such that an even number of bettors bet on either side of the spread  they make money.
That's why I say sports betting might be exploitable in a way that roulette can't. You're not necessarily playing "against the house" in a simple game of chance 
Same as with poker  The casino takes a cut of every pot, so it's hot against the other players, not against the house. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #37 on: April 10, 2018, 04:18:09 PM »
Sports betting has always been a mystery to me because I don't understand how they set the line (I'm sure I could learn it, I just don't care that much), but regardless of the inputs, I'm confident in saying that the casinos know how to do it such that they encourage a lot of winning--just so long as it's a little less than the losing. Your local, college bookie may not have the capital to float the losses, but the big kids do, and they rely on it to keep raking in the dough--and building more capital.


Lines are usually set with mathematical power rankings. I know college basketball basically mirros the KenPom ratings. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #38 on: April 10, 2018, 05:47:39 PM »
Talking about collecting money - my core group of friends and I ran a sports pick 'em every week for football season and that was hard enough to get all the money in, accounted for, and paid out.  

It was easy when it was just us, but one year it got BIG and there was some serious money fluttering about.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

rolltidefan

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #39 on: April 10, 2018, 06:00:06 PM »
That is usually roughly how I start out but then about mid-way through the year it becomes apparent that I am too far behind to catch up that way so I start picking truly stupid upset picks.  
that's why you gotta hit a big one early, and then pick more reasonable ones as season goes on.
for the early one, find a west coast team traveling cross country as a big favorite. or vice versa.

Cincydawg

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #40 on: April 10, 2018, 06:34:03 PM »
I suspect a really savvy player can make some dough on sports betting, with a lot of work.  As noted above, the House gets their take no matter what, but you are betting against some "fans" out there.  I imagine there is some heavy money that comes in if some bet gets out of whack, but perhaps you can still find room between the elephants.

Of course, we had the "sure thing in roulette" champ around here for a bit.  Probability didn't seem to be a factor for him.

I'd bet early season games and bowl games and against any team that was "popular".

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Chance of winning and the betting line
« Reply #41 on: April 11, 2018, 10:23:44 AM »

I don't gamble very often but when I do go to a Casino I usually play Roulette.  That might surprise some people here because you all know numbers are my thing and Roulette has just about the worst odds in the casino (94.7% payout) but I do have a reason.  I don't really plan to win.  I see it as an entertainment expense and that is where Roulette has an advantage.  Roulette is probably the slowest moving game in the casino.  Each time they have to wait for everybody to place their bets then spin the wheel, drop the ball and let it spin until it lands, then they have to pay the winners and start over.  It is a LOT slower than blackjack or even Craps.  A couple hundred dollars will generally last you for at least several hours on a $10 Roulette table.  
Then there is my theory:
If you think about roulette from the casino's perspective, they make most of their money when it hits green.  If @Cincydawg bets red and I bet black the casino gives my money to him when it hits red and his money to me when it hits black.  Same thing if we are betting even/odd or whatever but the casino takes both of our money when it lands on green.  Consequently, my theory is that if the Casino could slightly increase the odds of landing on green they would.  Maybe the green spaces are a millimeter wider than the others or something but generally the casino would make more money that way so I always bet on green.  

 

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