It will boil down to:
Have they fixed their defense? Can they stop a well designed run game from multiple formations. Last year the answer was a definite hell no. Both Oregon and University of Michigan exposed them.
I'd add Utah which scored 45 points on our Buckeyes to the list of teams that "exposed" our defense but in that case it didn't matter because you can afford to give up 463 yards and 45 points when you gain 683 and score 48.
Their scheme was eighth grade level and easy to figure out.
Ryan Day brought in Hafley/ and voila, a top 5 defense. But when he left- they gave it to someone who is a great coach- but as far from a schematic defense wiz as you could get.
I agree with this 100%.
If Knowles can upgrade them in that area just 30% in his year 1, the Buckeyes will be a tough out for anyone. They certainly have the talent, speed and depth on defense.
If not- we’ll it could be a long season. You can outscore some teams in a track meet. But not Um, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc.
I think this is overly pessimistic but it depends on how good the offense is. I expect the offense which was already tops in the nation last year to be as good or likely better next year. I thought last year that the notable weakness of the offense was that they didn't have a back you could count on to pick up a third-and-short. I *THINK* that will be better and that would have helped immensely. In the Oregon game:
- Our second-to-last drive of the first half ended on downs when we failed to pick up a 4th and 2.
- Our second drive of the second half ended on downs when we failed to pick up a 4th and 2 inside the Oregon 10.
We only lost by a TD. Pick up one of those two and score on the drive and it goes to OT. Pick up both and score on both drives and we win in regulation.
Even in The Game where we ended up losing by 15 the two possession deficit only existed for about 13 minutes total. First from 5:49 in the 3rd to 14:05 in the 4th when Michigan was up 28-13 then from 9:14 to 4:45 to go in the 4th when Michigan was up 35-20 and then for the last 2:17. There again, we had problems with our inability to pick up short yardage:
- Our first points came on a FG after having 1st and Goal on the 5 and 2nd and Goal on the 3.
Given the way the rest of the game played out it wouldn't have mattered but there is no guarantee that the rest of the game would have been the same if that first FG had been a TD. Instead of trailing 14-13 at the half maybe we'd have been up 17-14. Even if Michigan had still had their 14-0 third quarter we'd have only been down 11 instead of 15. It might not have mattered but the extra pressure on Michigan combined with their long run of losses may have worn on their confidence and who knows.
Your last line that you can't outscore UM, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc . . . Well, I'd rather not have to. Like you I certainly hope that our defense is better but that said we actually DID outscore PSU last year with a crappy defense (gave up 394 yards and 24 points but gained 466 and scored 33). We didn't play Iowa or Wisconsin but Utah was probably better than them while Minnesota and Purdue were their equals and we managed to outscore all of them with a crappy defense. Also one of the few games in which our defense did look good was Michigan State whom we held to 224 yards and a single TD. Not that it mattered because our offense gained 655 and scored 56. We'd have outscored them even on a bad day for our defense because the 56 is actually misleading. Our team scored 49 in the first half so if MSU had been scoring as well we could have gotten more than 56 if we had needed to.
Frankly I expect Michigan to take a step back (remember that they had a LOT more experience on the field last year than we did) so even with no improvement I think we'd have a better than even chance against the Wolverines. The defense doesn't really need to be elite, just a couple of stops would be enough.
Two final points:
First, I'm not saying that I want to have a crappy defense and beat everybody in track-meets. Also, if we do have a crappy defense we are bound to lose a game or two based on having a bad day. However, I am saying that within the league I think we'd have a better than even chance of winning it even without significant defensive improvement just because I think we actually can outscore enough teams to win it.
Second, there is a big difference between winning the league title and winning the national title. I conditionally disagreed with your take that you can't outscore teams like Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc. However, if you replaced those teams with Bama, Georgia, Clemson I would agree wholeheartedly. We aren't going to win a NC with a crappy defense. Provided that our offense is on the level of last year's, we might be able to win an NC with a pretty good (rather than elite) defense but we will need a better defense than we had last year.