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Topic: B1G-E 2022 Division Race

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« on: May 27, 2022, 04:42:12 PM »
What I've done here is to list each of the seven B1G-E teams' four road and five home league opponents.  I've organized the opponents roughly by my preliminary guess as to degree of difficulty but the B1G-E teams are just arranged alphabetically:

  • Indiana:  @tOSU, vsM, vsPSU, @MSU, @UNL, vsPU, @RU, vsUMD, vsIL
  • Maryland:  vstOSU, @M, @PSU, @UW, vsMSU, @IU, vsPU, vsNU, vsRU
  • Michigan:  @tOSU, @IA, vsPSU, vsMSU, vsUNL, @IU, @RU, vsIL, vsUMD
  • Michigan State:  vstOSU, @M, @PSU, vsUW, vsMN, @UMD, vsIU, @IL, vsRU
  • Ohio State:  @PSU, vsM, vsUW, @MSU, vsIA, @UMD, @NU, vsIU, vsRU
  • Penn State:  vstOSU, @M, vsMSU, @PU, @IU, vsMN, @RU, vsUMD, vsNU
  • Rutgers:  @tOSU, vsM, vsPSU, @MSU, vsIA, @MN, vsUNL, @UMD, vsIU


Maybe I'm just being an optimistic Ohio State fan but the Buckeyes were EXTREMELY young last year and I expect them to improve dramatically this year.  Meanwhile, my perception is that Michigan lost a LOT from last year's team.  I haven't really researched that but I just had the impression last year that they were a very senior-laden team.  Thus, I really don't think any of this matters much because I think Ohio State will be the best team by a significant margin such that they aren't going to lose except by surprise upset.  

Michigan's schedule is interesting because they have two tough road trips (Columbus and Iowa City) but after that they have seven games they should win.  If either the Hawkeyes or Buckeyes aren't quite as good as I'm expecting then suddenly Michigan's forecast is 8-1 and they are one upset away from 9-0 in the league and probably 12-0 overall because the Wolverines chose not to challenge themselves OOC this year.  

Penn State gets the Buckeyes and Spartans at home and I already said above that I expect the Wolverines to suffer some dropoff this year so if the Nittany Lions can beat the Buckeyes at home they have a pretty clear path to 9-0.  That is probably easier said than done as the Nittany Lions are 1-9 in their last 10 against the Buckeyes with the lone win coming by a FG at home in a miraculous finish in 2016.  To their credit, they have been competitive other times with one-score losses in 2018, 2017, and 2014 but they've also been run off the field a few times.  

Indiana is a bit of a wildcard as they looked to really be building something pre-pandemic then very nearly won the division in the pandemic year but collapsed last year.  The question is whether last year was a return to normal or an aberration.  

If my assessment of Ohio State is correct then Michigan State's schedule is just about the worst-case-scenario for the Spartans.  They host the Buckeyes but if the Buckeyes are good enough for that not to matter then that just sets them further behind with road trips to Ann Arbor and State College.  

I just don't think that either RU or UMD will be ready to contend this year.  

ELA

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2022, 03:11:05 PM »
Yeah, MSU looks about the same, but with a killer schedule.  Granted the road trip to Washington, who knows.  Michigan's OOC schedule is embarrassing.  Maryland has an absolutely brutal conference schedule.  Tough for a staff that I would think needs a bowl trip this year

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #2 on: May 31, 2022, 12:48:57 PM »
Yeah, MSU looks about the same, but with a killer schedule.
There are always contingencies.  IF Ohio State looks mortal and beatable in a home game that would help MSU.  IF Michigan takes a big step back such that MSU might be able to beat them in Ann Arbor that would help.  That said, I think MSU is likely to go 0-3 in their three toughest games (vstOSU, @M, @PSU) and if they do then I can't see them winning the division because their ceiling would be 6-3 with tie-breaker losses to the three helmets.  
Yeah, MSU looks about the same, but with a killer schedule.  Granted the road trip to Washington, who knows.  Michigan's OOC schedule is embarrassing.  Maryland has an absolutely brutal conference schedule.  Tough for a staff that I would think needs a bowl trip this year
Agreed, their schedule is a nightmare.  Maryland has the same set-up as MSU for the three helmets with Ohio State at home and the other two on the road.  Additionally they have Wisconsin on the road as well.  I just can't see them winning any of those four which doesn't leave them much margin-for-error as far as making a bowl.  Assuming they lose to Michigan (Away, 9/24), Wisconsin (Away, 11/5), Penn State (Away, 11/12), and Ohio State (Home, 11/19) their ceiling would be 8-4/5-4.  They can only bowl if they manage to go at least 6-2 in their other eight games but they still have a number of dangerous and difficult opponents.  The only possible silver lining in this cloud is that the only two other road games are at Charlotte and at Indiana.  

Temp430

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2022, 01:06:03 PM »
Ohio State's opener against Notre Dame could spring board the Buckeyes.  Notre Dame looks to be good so they might not be sprung in the direction the Buckeyes want. 
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Abba

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #4 on: May 31, 2022, 01:23:54 PM »
Notre Dame is always looking to be good.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #5 on: May 31, 2022, 03:43:38 PM »
Ohio State's opener against Notre Dame could spring board the Buckeyes.  Notre Dame looks to be good so they might not be sprung in the direction the Buckeyes want.
It is possible that I am biased by:
  • The fact that I'm an Ohio State fan/alum, and/or
  • The fact that I despise Notre Dame

That said, I think ND was insanely overrated last year and the Buckeyes will annihilate them on September 3.  Last year Notre Dame barely beat:
  • A terrible FSU team
  • Toledo
  • VaTech
The above were all one-score wins (OT over FSU, by a FG each over Toledo and VaTech).  

They also had reasonably competitive (10-15 point)wins over:
  • USC
  • UNC
  • Purdue
They did have blowout wins over:
  • Wisconsin by 28
  • Navy by 28
  • Virginia by 25
  • GaTech by 55
  • Stanford by 31

Even some of those weren't as decisive as they seemed.  Wisconsin led 13-10 in the fourth quarter but ND ran away with it late.  


Their two losses last year were to a good-but-not-great Oklahoma State team in the Fiesta Bowl and to a Cincinnati team whose only quality win was Notre Dame.  We've had the argument over Cincy's relative strength but the problem here is that if you take away the Notre Dame win (which I'm doing here because otherwise it is circular logic to say that Cincy is good because they beat Notre Dame and Notre Dame is good because they were competitive with Cincy) then Cincy is left with a best win of I guess Houston.  

The last time Notre Dame played actual NC Caliber teams was back in the Covid-altered season of 2020 and the results were:
  • They needed a miraculous finish to beat a Covid-depleted Clemson in double-OT at home
  • They got blasted by a more-or-less full-strength Clemson in the ACCCG
  • They got blasted by Alabama in the Rose Bowl / CFP Semi-Final

That year Ohio State blasted Clemson and got blasted by Alabama and now Notre Dame is coming to the Horseshoe.  I mean, I worry about every game but I just can't see Notre Dame being able to keep up.  

Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2022, 05:45:43 PM »
It will boil down to:

Have they fixed their defense? Can they stop a well designed run game from multiple formations. Last year the answer was a definite hell no. Both Oregon and University of Michigan exposed them.

Their scheme was eighth grade level and easy to figure out.

Ryan Day brought in Hafley/ and voila, a top 5 defense. But when he left- they gave it to someone who is a great coach- but as far from a schematic defense wiz as you could get. 

If Knowles can upgrade them in that area just 30% in his year 1, the Buckeyes will be a tough out for anyone.  They certainly have the talent, speed and depth on defense. 

If not- we’ll it could be a long season.  You can outscore some teams in a track meet. But not Um, Wisconsin, Iowa, PSU, etc.  
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Mdot21

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2022, 06:21:53 AM »
Ohio State has it on lock imo. 

Michigan is going to be pretty mediocre and have a big drop off imo. I'm thinking like 8-4. They'll lose @Iowa and @OSU for sure. And watch them drop a couple they probably shouldn't along the way as well. They lost almost their entire starting defense and DC. Harbaugh had one foot out the door for the NFL before getting left at the altar by the Vikings. And the guy is absof**kinglutely clueless when it comes to the passing game- and if the running game isn't working- like it wasn't vs UGA in the playoff- his offenses sputter out, blow a tire on the highway and crash into the wall. Dude is a retard when it comes to the passing game- and I do not trust him to build a modern high-flying passing attack- despite all the talent he's got at his disposal. TE Erick All came back for his Sr year- he's pretty dang good. And they are getting their best WR- Ronnie Bell back from injury. Andrel Anthony is a young stud just waiting to break out. Roman Wilson can absolutely fly- might be the fastest WR in the B1G. Cornelius Johnson is a very good, big bodied WR. Donovan Edwards is as good a receiving back as there is. Harbaugh won't give JJ McCarthy the job- he'll keep starting the lesser talented and limited Cade McNamara and Harbaugh will be the reason this offense sucks in 2022.

Temp430

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2022, 07:14:17 AM »
My comment that the Notre Dame @Ohio State is a spring board game stems from past decades experience when Michigan opened with Notre Dame.  The winner of that game seemed to go on to have a great year, the loser not so much.   Looking forward to that game.
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #9 on: June 01, 2022, 07:17:57 AM »
Ohio State appears to have about as much advantage this year as they have in the past decade, perhaps more.  They appear to have something like an 80% shot at winning the East, and probably 70% at winning the B1G, and probably 50% making the playoff.

Appears is the operative term here of course.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #10 on: June 01, 2022, 07:52:27 AM »
Ohio State appears to have about as much advantage this year as they have in the past decade, perhaps more.  They appear to have something like an 80% shot at winning the East, and probably 70% at winning the B1G, and probably 50% making the playoff.

Appears is the operative term here of course.
Yes- just like last year. 🥴
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Cincydawg

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #11 on: June 01, 2022, 08:25:58 AM »
An 80% chance obviously means they won't win 1 time in 5.  

But they are as close to a lock as they been in recent years, and get Michigan at home, which helps.  MSU can be a stumble.  But whoever beats them, if it happens, also has to tie them in record at least, which is also not that probable.

Mdot21

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #12 on: June 01, 2022, 08:43:36 AM »
An 80% chance obviously means they won't win 1 time in 5. 

But they are as close to a lock as they been in recent years, and get Michigan at home, which helps.  MSU can be a stumble.  But whoever beats them, if it happens, also has to tie them in record at least, which is also not that probable.
OSU are the overwhelming favorites. 

That offense will be absolutely ridiculous with CJ Stroud at QB, JSN at WR, and Henderson at RB. Those 3 guys will all be 1st rd picks when their names are called on draft day. 

I think the only guy you could argue being better at QB than Stroud is Bryce Young. Personally, I think Stroud has more natural talent and physical ability- Young might be further ahead/more polished. But that's literally it. At WR? Can't. JSN is tops in the nation. Henderson in the convo for top 3 RB, easy. They are freaking loaded. As usual.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: B1G-E 2022 Division Race
« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2022, 09:43:26 AM »
Defense?  That is the question 


Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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