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Topic: B1G-W 2022 Division Race

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WhiskeyM

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2022, 01:29:04 PM »
Purdue is in an interesting position.

They finally know who the starting QB will be going into the season.  This is big because it was always 2 QBs splitting reps with the 1's going into opening week.  This year O'Connell gets all the reps and can develop better timing with the WR's.  O'Connell was the 2nd highest rated passer in the B1G last year, and I expect no different this year.  He is by far the best QB in the B1G W, and better than every other QB in the B1G, aside from Stroud and Tagovailoa.  I bet O'Connell puts up big numbers this year.

The OL has improved a lot over the years.  They are finally coming around to having depth as well.  Being able to protect  O'Connell will give opposing defenses fits all season.

WR's will be interesting.  Purdue recruits and develops this position extremely well.  However, they just lost their clear #1 going into the season in Milton Wright (academically ineligible).  Wright would have certainly been playing in the NFL (Purdue's 3rd drafted WR in 3 seasons).  They have plenty of guys that can step up, problem is that the next 3 in line have been having problems with injuries.  The Boilers did pick up a playmaker transfer from Iowa with Tracy.

RB lost starter Zander Horvath to the NFL.  It's going to be tough to replace a guy like him as Purdue asks their RBs to do everything...pass block, run, and be a WR.  King Doerue has a lot of experience, but struggled in pass block.  Samson James is finally eligible and is expected to take a lot of snaps (former Ohio State recruit, and transfer from Indiana).

TE is an absolutely loaded position.  No issues here whatsoever.

The defense was excellent last season, by Purdue standards.  They could be counted on to win games.  Problem is Purdue lost a lot of production.

DC Brad Lambert left, as expected.  Purdue will now have their 4th DC in 4 seasons.  We need continuity here.  Hard to tell how English will run the show.

Karlaftis was a first round draft pick and his production will be hard to duplicate right away.  Purdue does have some young 4* guys that could step up.  They also got a big transfer in 4* Cole Brevard from Penn State.

The Boilers unexpectedly lost starting safety, and probably their best DB, Marvin Grant to transfer.

Special teams could get a big boost if Iowa transfer, and the B1Gs best return specialist, Charlie Jones picks Purdue.

So in short, offense should be very productive, defense is a question mark.  Special teams could get a big boost.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2022, 04:17:08 PM »
Interesting analysis. Only UW, NU and Iowa have seen Indy. I think it will probably stay that way too.
Considering that 2022 will probably be the final year of the B1G-W, you have a decent chance to be right.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2022, 08:20:44 PM »


Minn ties for first about once every 10 years, but never wins the tiebreaker.  They last tied for first in 2019, so they are good for now.



Every ten years? The drought was 1967-2019. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

WhiskeyM

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2022, 09:13:34 PM »
A little more on O'Connell, from ESPNs QB tiers...

"But the most interesting name in this tier might be O'Connell. There were just five players to post a Total QBR of 85 or better last year. Three are in our top tier. Another won the national championship. The fifth player is O'Connell. O'Connell finished with 3,708 passing yards and 28 touchdowns and completed nearly 72% of his passes. Only four other Power 5 QBs who didn't play for Leach hit those marks in a season during the playoff era: Burrow, Jones, Stroud and Baker Mayfield."

ESPN has him highly rated.



medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #18 on: June 03, 2022, 11:43:53 AM »
What I've done here is to list all of the B1G-W teams that are ranked in Athlon's preseason top-25
Athlon's preseason top-25 then also list their games against fellow top-25 members:

  • #19 Wisconsin:  @ #2 tOSU, @ #14 MSU, @ "next tier" Iowa, vs "next tier" PU, vs "next tier" MN
  • "next tier" Iowa:  @ #2 tOSU, vs #6 M, vs #19 Wisconsin, @ "next tier" Minnesota, @ "next tier" Purdue
  • "next tier" Minnesota:  @ #14 MSU, @ #19 UW, @ #25 PSU, vs "next tier" PU, vs "next tier" IA
  • "next tier" Purdue:  @ #19 UW, vs #25 PSU, @ "next tier" MN, vs "next tier" IA


Purdue and Penn State open the B1G season with an 8pm date on Thursday, September 1 in West Lafayette.  I honestly think that their game could end up deciding either or both division races but I'll focus on the B1G-W in this thread:  

If Purdue wins then they should go 3-0 vs the B1G-E because their other two B1G-E opponents are UMD and IU.  The rest of the above likely contenders each have at least one road game against a ranked B1G-E opponent.  Road games against ranked teams are tough even for very good teams so it is a strong probability that none of the rest of the B1G-W contenders will do better than 2-1 against the B1G-E.  That basically gives Purdue a chance to win with the formula that worked for Iowa last year.  Last year the Hawkeyes only went 1-2 against PU/UW/MN but they went 3-0 against the B1G-E (IU, UMD, PSU) and 3-0 against the B1G-W also-rans (NU, IL, UNL).  That added up to 7-2 which was a game better than PU/UW/MN.  

If Purdue loses I wouldn't completely count them out but it gets a LOT tougher for them.  The MN (away, 10/1) and Wisconsin (away, 10/22) games along with the Iowa game (home, 11/5) become almost must-win situations and it becomes almost impossible for them to win with more than one additional league loss.  

LittlePig

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #19 on: June 03, 2022, 10:53:05 PM »

Every ten years? The drought was 1967-2019.

I believe you but now you got me curious who would have been the unoficial West champions if in fact there was a 6-team West division made up of Iowa, Minn, Wisc, ILL, NW,  and Purdue  going back to 1967.  Or at least going back until 1993 when PSU joined.  Before 1993 I guess it would just be a 5-team west division with Purdue in the east.

If it wasn't my bed time, I would try to look that up.

bayareabadger

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #20 on: June 04, 2022, 01:00:35 AM »
UW's pass game will be one to watch. Lotta pass catchers to replace. I think the line will be better, was fine last year. 

A tad worried this is a step back year for the defense, but I worry about that most years. 

847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #21 on: June 04, 2022, 05:48:32 AM »
I believe you but now you got me curious who would have been the unoficial West champions if in fact there was a 6-team West division made up of Iowa, Minn, Wisc, ILL, NW,  and Purdue  going back to 1967.  Or at least going back until 1993 when PSU joined.  Before 1993 I guess it would just be a 5-team west division with Purdue in the east.

If it wasn't my bed time, I would try to look that up.
Minnesota probably wins every year until Hayden Fry woke up Iowa. Iowa then dominates until 1992. Illinois has 2-3 in that time I think.

1993 to now it's Wisconsin and Iowa on top, I'd say, with a little Illinois and NU sprinkled in.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Abba

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #22 on: June 04, 2022, 08:15:27 AM »
UW's pass game will be one to watch. Lotta pass catchers to replace. I think the line will be better, was fine last year.

A tad worried this is a step back year for the defense, but I worry about that most years.


Not sure if you follow or care about SP+, but it has the Wisconsin defense as the top one in the country to start the year.  They do admit that they need some time to adjust their formula for the impact of the transfer portal.

847badgerfan

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Re: B1G-W 2022 Division Race
« Reply #23 on: June 04, 2022, 08:53:03 AM »
UW is probably done with the portal from the inbound side, unless they can find another WR and possibly a TE.

I could see some kids entering the portal after fall camp though - especially some of the LB's who are buried.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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