CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on May 27, 2022, 04:12:10 PM
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Since I already launched into this in another thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/ot-weird-history/700/) I thought I'd expand on it here.
With the impending end of divisions, 2022 might be the best chance that several B1G-W teams ever have of getting to the CG. As soon as next year they could all be thrown in with the B1G-E which would undoubtedly diminish their chances of making it. So, without further ado here are all seven B1G-W teams' league schedules with their five away games and four home games. I've organized this in roughly what I preliminarily think will be the order of difficulty to win (taking both opponent and H/A into account) but the teams are simply organized alphabetically:
- Illinois: @M, @UW, @UNL, vsMSU, vsIA, @IU, vsPU, vsMN, @NU
- Iowa: @tOSU, vsM, vsUW, @PU, @MN, vsUNL, @IL, vsNU, @RU
- Minnesota: @PSU, @UW, @MSU, @UNL, vsIA, vsPU, @IL, vsRU, vsNU
- Nebraska: @M, @IA, vsUW, @PU, vsMN, vsIL, vsIU, @RU, vsNU
- Northwestern: vstOSU, @PSU, @IA, vsUW, @PU, @MN, vsUNL, @UMD, vsIL
- Purdue: @UW, vsPSU, @MN, vsUNL, vsIA, @IL, @IU, @UMD, vsNU
- Wisconsin: @tOSU, @MSU, @IA, @UNL, vsPU, vsMN, vsIL, @NU, vsUMD
Purdue is the only B1G-W team not visiting Ann Arbor, Columbus, or State College this year. I think that is a big advantage because they are the only B1G-W team with a pretty good chance to go 3-0 against the B1G-E. If they can pull that off then 4-2 in divisional games will get the job done for them provided that the other teams are equal enough to each absorb a couple losses inter-divisionally.
I know that Northwestern has an odd knack for following up a terrible season (like last year) with a great one but I just don't see it this year. That schedule looks like an out-and-out nightmare to me. Having tOSU and UW at home is likely a curse disguised as a blessing. HFA is great but I think they lose those games anyway (partly because NU doesn't really have much "HFA" anyway). They gave up a home game for a neutral site game in Dublin which only leaves them with three home games and two of them are against tOSU and UW. If they lose those two then it looks like 1-8 is not unlikely and anything better than 3-6 would be a flat-out miracle.
Wisconsin has been consistently fielding good-to-great teams for better than three decades now but this schedule looks rough. The four road trips to Columbus, East Lansing, Iowa City, and Lincoln would be a tall order for anyone and Wisconsin is not an exception to that. That said, losing in Columbus and East Lansing wouldn't be all that damaging to the Badgers' CG hopes because the rest of the B1G-W teams should all lose at least once to a team not named UW so if they lose to tOSU and MSU but otherwise win they should get back to Indy.
Iowa has an interesting schedule where a lot depends on how good Michigan, Purdue, and Minnesota are. If the Hawkeyes can beat the Wolverines at home and the Boilers and Gophers on the road then they should be in good shape but if they can't then they'll be an also-ran.
Minnesota was close last year and REALLY close in 2019 but this year's road trips to State College, Madison, East Lansing, and Lincoln could make things difficult this year. Even the trip to Champaign could be tough, the Gophers lost to the Illini last year in Minneapolis.
Personally I don't think Bert will have Illinois ready to contend just yet but we'll find out early as the Illini travel to Madison on the first of October and host the Hawkeyes a week later. If they lose those two I think they are out.
Nebraska could be the wildcard in this whole thing. Last year they finished with a pathetic 3-9 record but almost every week they lost by one score and that included competitive games against some really good teams. Their nine losses last year:
- In OT @ Michigan State
- By 3 vs Michigan
- By 5 vs Purdue
- By 7 @ Oklahoma
- By 7 @ Wisconsin
- By 7 vs Iowa
- By 7 @ Minnesota
- By 8 @ Illinois
- By 9 vs Ohio State
With that many close losses they could potentially improve their record by half-a-dozen or more games without actually getting all that much better.
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Several weeks ago I saw one media source predicting Nebraska to win the West.
Today I see CBS Sports projects Minnesota.
Based on schedule I now see how one might project Nebraska to win the West.
As for me I am disappointed with Iowa having not replaced its offensive coordinator and instead doubled down on a bad coordinator by also making him QBs coach. Spring ball did not go so well for the QBs at Iowa. I don't see Iowa winning the West.
I am leaning toward Nebraska and UW.
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I think I do like Purdue with that extremely manageable schedule they have. I think Wisconsin has the best team, but what a brutal schedule there. It's an even year, so we might have a Northwestern sighting, but I can't see it with that schedule and their lack of QB production. Nebraska is certainly interesting as well. I think they made a lot of good offseason moves, so let's see if it FINALLY pays off. And then of course Iowa isn't being talked about much. Not a sexy team, but I'm sure they'll be in it until the end.
Edit: Why stop there? It honestly looks like all 7 teams have a chance to win this thing. Even lowly Illinois showed enough life last year for me to not totally look past them.
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Nebraska because of desperation to go to a bowl and save Frost's hide is following Michigan State's recipe and went to the portal for a bunch of players
if the portal QB and a WR and a D-lineman can play at a high level, things could go well
the O-line is the issue and has been the issue since Frost arrived
if the O-line doesn't improve the new QB and WRs and RBs will be limited
they did bring in a new O-line coach and a couple big guards from the portal
Oh, and don't forget that the special teams SUCK - did land a place kicker in the portal
fingers crossed
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UW's chances hinge on QB and WR/TE play. If that can improve, they will win the West.
The OL will be stellar, as will the running game, and the defense needs no mention. It will be among the best.
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I'm not coming to Madison
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Last years standings
Iowa 7-2
MINN 6-3
Wisc 6-3
Pur 6-3
ILL 4-5
NEB 1-8
NW 1-8
Even though Iowa won the divsion, they only were 1-2 against Minn, Wisc and Purdue. The key difference was Iowa went 3-0 vs. The east division teams of IND, MD, PSU. Probably the first time in the history of west division that the cross-division schedule actually was the deciding factor in who won the division. I guess that must be why nobody is picking Iowa to repeat. This year Iowa gets Mich, OSU and rutgers. Even Iowa fans will probably have to concede winning the division in 2021 was mostly a fluke, but then again it was just one of those years where nobody probably deserved to win the West, but had 4 teams that deserved to at least finish 2nd or 3rd. 2021 was a great example why the Big Ten wants to just get rid of the divisions.
With all that said, with Purdue's schedule, the stars seem to be aligning for Jeff Brahm to finally break through and finally win the west. If so, at least the West will send a little more interesting team on offense to the CCG this year.
Iowa and NW both pretty much rode some stingy defenses to their division titles, but boy did their offenses stink. But that's a sign too whoever comes out of west will need to have a top defense for those days when the offense is not there.
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Last years standings
Iowa 7-2
MINN 6-3
Wisc 6-3
Pur 6-3
ILL 4-5
NEB 1-8
NW 1-8
Combine the above with this:
Nebraska could be the wildcard in this whole thing. Last year they finished with a pathetic 3-9 record but almost every week they lost by one score and that included competitive games against some really good teams. Their nine losses last year:
- In OT @ Michigan State
- By 3 vs Michigan
- By 5 vs Purdue
- By 7 @ Oklahoma
- By 7 @ Wisconsin
- By 7 vs Iowa
- By 7 @ Minnesota
- By 8 @ Illinois
- By 9 vs Ohio State
Now you can see why I think UNL is such a wildcard this year. If you add one regulation TD to each game last year:
- The MSU game doesn't go to OT, UNL wins 27-20 in regulation: 4-8/2-7
- The Michigan game becomes a 36-32 win: 5-7/3-6
- The Purdue game becomes a 30-28 win: 6-7/4-5
- The Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Minnesota games go to OT. If we assume that UNL goes .500 in OT (a seemingly reasonable assumption for any team) and they win two of the league games while losing one plus the OU game OOC that gets them to: 8-5/6-3
Thus Nebraska is no worse than one game out of the league title (depending on whether or not the Iowa game is won in OT).
A one TD per game improvement is not out of the question for a team, that is a reasonable and possible thing. Thus, I agree with this:
Edit: Why stop there? It honestly looks like all 7 teams have a chance to win this thing. Even lowly Illinois showed enough life last year for me to not totally look past them.
I agree, you can't count any of these teams out. using last year's standings as provided above by @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) :
- 7-2 Iowa: I wouldn't bet on them but nobody is talking about Iowa and frankly that is usually when they surprise. Add to that the fact that they ARE the defending champions and there really is no reason to think they CAN'T win it in 2022.
- 6-3 Minnesota: The Gophers' three league losses last year were a two-TD loss to the Buckeyes whom they do not have to play this year, to the Illini by 8 in what looks like a crazy fluke, and to the Hawkeyes on the road by five. I wouldn't bet on them either but it wouldn't take much improvement to erase all three losses.
- 6-3 Wisconsin: For one thing, 2021 just felt like one of those periodic weaker-than-usual years that all teams have for various reasons for the Badgers. Secondly, they started out an anemic 1-3 with a close loss to PSU and not-so-close losses to very good ND and M teams but then finished on an 8-1 tear with the wins interrupted only by losing the Axe for the first time in a LONG time. Thirdly, Wisconsin's defense was at least borderline elite so if they can maintain that, they don't actually need a great offense they just need a decent or at least competent offense to go places.
- 6-3 Purdue: Purdue's crossovers this year (vsPSU, @IU, @UMD) are MUCH more manageable than last year (@tOSU, vsMSU, vsIU) and they went 2-1 last year. Even with the same divisional record as last year (4-2), getting their crossover record to 3-0 would move them up to 7-2 which would have been enough to win the division last year since they beat Iowa H2H. Beyond that, while they Boilers weren't particularly competitive in the Wisconsin loss, the Minnesota loss was by 7 in a game that Purdue led 13-10 at halftime. The problem being that in the second half the Boilers scored zero points on drives of 46, 15, 58, 58, and 48 yards. It isn't like Minnesota shut them down in the second half, Purdue was able to move the ball, they just couldn't finish drives. Their second half drives resulted in two punts, a missed FG, an INT, and a loss on downs. Like a lot of teams in this division it feels like if Purdue had been even slightly better last year they'd have won the division in a laugher.
- 4-5 Illinois: Even though they finished sub .500 the Illini looked to be improving last year and they did have three one-score losses in the league (UMD by a FG, PU by four, and RU by six). They were also competitive in their loss at Iowa and showed life in wins over MN and PSU along with the aforementioned competitive loss to Iowa. They weren't THAT far away last year. Flip the three one-score losses and they tie Iowa for the division title.
- 1-8 Nebraska: See above.
- 1-8 Northwestern: I really don't have any logical reason to believe that Northwestern can be competitive next year. They were awful last year and unlike some of the above they didn't have a lot of close losses. However, Northwestern just seems to have this odd knack for being pretty darn good in even-numbered years. They sucked in 2021 but won the division in 2020. They went 2-9/0-8 in 2019 but won the division in 2018. In the last four years Northwestern won division titles in the two even years (2018 and 2020) and went a combined 1-17 in the two odd years (2019 and 2021). I can't explain it.
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Some interesting betting lines here:
To win the West:
Wisconsin +170
Nebraska +300
Iowa +450
Purdue +600
Minnesota +600
Illinois +3000
Northwestern +10000
And then expected regular season wins:
Wisconsin 8.5
Nebraska 7.5
Iowa 7.5
Purdue 7.5
Minnesota 7.5
Illinois 4.5
Northwestern 4.5
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Going against Wisconsin is always-ish stupid. Purdue seems like the best value play though
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Wisconsin seems to win the division about 50% of the time, so they are overdue, last winning in 2019.
NW is good in even numbered years and awful in odd numbered years. So they should be good this year.
Iowa seems to win the division about every 6 years. 2009 (defacto west winner), 2015, 2021 for example. So Iowa is probably good until 2027.
Minn ties for first about once every 10 years, but never wins the tiebreaker. They last tied for first in 2019, so they are good for now.
ILL is awful for 8 years, then surprises everybody and is good for 1 year, then goes back to being awful. The last time they were good was 2007, so they are overdue.
NEB needs to get back to the Bo Pelini wins 9 games every year consistency, but it seems like that pattern has been broken forever. Now they are the team that can't even finish .500 and go to a bowl. I sure don't think they are suddenly going back to 9-4 every year. First get back to to 7-6. Sadly, Iowa is now the team in the West that wins 9 games every year, not Nebraska.
Then there's Purdue. They seem to be overdue too. Really have to go back to Drew Brees and 2000 for that last landmark season. It's their time, man. They seem like the team to root for.
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- 1-8 Northwestern: I really don't have any logical reason to believe that Northwestern can be competitive next year. They were awful last year and unlike some of the above they didn't have a lot of close losses. However, Northwestern just seems to have this odd knack for being pretty darn good in even-numbered years. They sucked in 2021 but won the division in 2020. They went 2-9/0-8 in 2019 but won the division in 2018. In the last four years Northwestern won division titles in the two even years (2018 and 2020) and went a combined 1-17 in the two odd years (2019 and 2021). I can't explain it.
It's like how 2015 OSU had all the talent in the world, but they didn't contend for a NC because they just won a NC the year before and they couldn't muster up the same hunger to do it again.
Northwestern just experiences that on a smaller scale. They win the division and get all fat and happy and thinking that they are great, and then they are in for a rude awakening the following year when they fail to gel as a team and don't have the raw talent to do much of anything otherwise.
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I think winning an NC takes some breaks along the way, along with an elite level team.
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Wisconsin seems to win the division about 50% of the time, so they are overdue, last winning in 2019.
NW is good in even numbered years and awful in odd numbered years. So they should be good this year.
Iowa seems to win the division about every 6 years. 2009 (defacto west winner), 2015, 2021 for example. So Iowa is probably good until 2027.
Minn ties for first about once every 10 years, but never wins the tiebreaker. They last tied for first in 2019, so they are good for now.
ILL is awful for 8 years, then surprises everybody and is good for 1 year, then goes back to being awful. The last time they were good was 2007, so they are overdue.
NEB needs to get back to the Bo Pelini wins 9 games every year consistency, but it seems like that pattern has been broken forever. Now they are the team that can't even finish .500 and go to a bowl. I sure don't think they are suddenly going back to 9-4 every year. First get back to to 7-6. Sadly, Iowa is now the team in the West that wins 9 games every year, not Nebraska.
Then there's Purdue. They seem to be overdue too. Really have to go back to Drew Brees and 2000 for that last landmark season. It's their time, man. They seem like the team to root for.
Interesting analysis. Only UW, NU and Iowa have seen Indy. I think it will probably stay that way too.
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Purdue is in an interesting position.
They finally know who the starting QB will be going into the season. This is big because it was always 2 QBs splitting reps with the 1's going into opening week. This year O'Connell gets all the reps and can develop better timing with the WR's. O'Connell was the 2nd highest rated passer in the B1G last year, and I expect no different this year. He is by far the best QB in the B1G W, and better than every other QB in the B1G, aside from Stroud and Tagovailoa. I bet O'Connell puts up big numbers this year.
The OL has improved a lot over the years. They are finally coming around to having depth as well. Being able to protect O'Connell will give opposing defenses fits all season.
WR's will be interesting. Purdue recruits and develops this position extremely well. However, they just lost their clear #1 going into the season in Milton Wright (academically ineligible). Wright would have certainly been playing in the NFL (Purdue's 3rd drafted WR in 3 seasons). They have plenty of guys that can step up, problem is that the next 3 in line have been having problems with injuries. The Boilers did pick up a playmaker transfer from Iowa with Tracy.
RB lost starter Zander Horvath to the NFL. It's going to be tough to replace a guy like him as Purdue asks their RBs to do everything...pass block, run, and be a WR. King Doerue has a lot of experience, but struggled in pass block. Samson James is finally eligible and is expected to take a lot of snaps (former Ohio State recruit, and transfer from Indiana).
TE is an absolutely loaded position. No issues here whatsoever.
The defense was excellent last season, by Purdue standards. They could be counted on to win games. Problem is Purdue lost a lot of production.
DC Brad Lambert left, as expected. Purdue will now have their 4th DC in 4 seasons. We need continuity here. Hard to tell how English will run the show.
Karlaftis was a first round draft pick and his production will be hard to duplicate right away. Purdue does have some young 4* guys that could step up. They also got a big transfer in 4* Cole Brevard from Penn State.
The Boilers unexpectedly lost starting safety, and probably their best DB, Marvin Grant to transfer.
Special teams could get a big boost if Iowa transfer, and the B1Gs best return specialist, Charlie Jones picks Purdue.
So in short, offense should be very productive, defense is a question mark. Special teams could get a big boost.
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Interesting analysis. Only UW, NU and Iowa have seen Indy. I think it will probably stay that way too.
Considering that 2022 will probably be the final year of the B1G-W, you have a decent chance to be right.
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Minn ties for first about once every 10 years, but never wins the tiebreaker. They last tied for first in 2019, so they are good for now.
Every ten years? The drought was 1967-2019.
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A little more on O'Connell, from ESPNs QB tiers...
"But the most interesting name in this tier might be O'Connell. There were just five players to post a Total QBR of 85 or better last year. Three are in our top tier. Another won the national championship. The fifth player is O'Connell. O'Connell finished with 3,708 passing yards and 28 touchdowns and completed nearly 72% of his passes. Only four other Power 5 QBs who didn't play for Leach hit those marks in a season during the playoff era: Burrow, Jones, Stroud and Baker Mayfield."
ESPN has him highly rated.
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What I've done here is to list all of the B1G-W teams that are ranked in Athlon's preseason top-25 (https://athlonsports.com/college-football/top-25-college-football-rankings) then also list their games against fellow top-25 members:
- #19 Wisconsin: @ #2 tOSU, @ #14 MSU, @ "next tier" Iowa, vs "next tier" PU, vs "next tier" MN
- "next tier" Iowa: @ #2 tOSU, vs #6 M, vs #19 Wisconsin, @ "next tier" Minnesota, @ "next tier" Purdue
- "next tier" Minnesota: @ #14 MSU, @ #19 UW, @ #25 PSU, vs "next tier" PU, vs "next tier" IA
- "next tier" Purdue: @ #19 UW, vs #25 PSU, @ "next tier" MN, vs "next tier" IA
Purdue and Penn State open the B1G season with an 8pm date on Thursday, September 1 in West Lafayette. I honestly think that their game could end up deciding either or both division races but I'll focus on the B1G-W in this thread:
If Purdue wins then they should go 3-0 vs the B1G-E because their other two B1G-E opponents are UMD and IU. The rest of the above likely contenders each have at least one road game against a ranked B1G-E opponent. Road games against ranked teams are tough even for very good teams so it is a strong probability that none of the rest of the B1G-W contenders will do better than 2-1 against the B1G-E. That basically gives Purdue a chance to win with the formula that worked for Iowa last year. Last year the Hawkeyes only went 1-2 against PU/UW/MN but they went 3-0 against the B1G-E (IU, UMD, PSU) and 3-0 against the B1G-W also-rans (NU, IL, UNL). That added up to 7-2 which was a game better than PU/UW/MN.
If Purdue loses I wouldn't completely count them out but it gets a LOT tougher for them. The MN (away, 10/1) and Wisconsin (away, 10/22) games along with the Iowa game (home, 11/5) become almost must-win situations and it becomes almost impossible for them to win with more than one additional league loss.
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Every ten years? The drought was 1967-2019.
I believe you but now you got me curious who would have been the unoficial West champions if in fact there was a 6-team West division made up of Iowa, Minn, Wisc, ILL, NW, and Purdue going back to 1967. Or at least going back until 1993 when PSU joined. Before 1993 I guess it would just be a 5-team west division with Purdue in the east.
If it wasn't my bed time, I would try to look that up.
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UW's pass game will be one to watch. Lotta pass catchers to replace. I think the line will be better, was fine last year.
A tad worried this is a step back year for the defense, but I worry about that most years.
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I believe you but now you got me curious who would have been the unoficial West champions if in fact there was a 6-team West division made up of Iowa, Minn, Wisc, ILL, NW, and Purdue going back to 1967. Or at least going back until 1993 when PSU joined. Before 1993 I guess it would just be a 5-team west division with Purdue in the east.
If it wasn't my bed time, I would try to look that up.
Minnesota probably wins every year until Hayden Fry woke up Iowa. Iowa then dominates until 1992. Illinois has 2-3 in that time I think.
1993 to now it's Wisconsin and Iowa on top, I'd say, with a little Illinois and NU sprinkled in.
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UW's pass game will be one to watch. Lotta pass catchers to replace. I think the line will be better, was fine last year.
A tad worried this is a step back year for the defense, but I worry about that most years.
Not sure if you follow or care about SP+, but it has the Wisconsin defense as the top one in the country to start the year. They do admit that they need some time to adjust their formula for the impact of the transfer portal.
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UW is probably done with the portal from the inbound side, unless they can find another WR and possibly a TE.
I could see some kids entering the portal after fall camp though - especially some of the LB's who are buried.