| I've gone back and forth all week on this one. On paper, Michigan looks better, maybe substantially better. But that is about par for the course. Michigan has been favored in 6 of the last 9 matchups, and they've lost 4 of those times they were favored. The Spartans have won 8 of 10 outright, and covered in all 10. So that's been a decade straight where Michigan has not performed up to the pregame expectations. This week Michigan is favored for the 7th time in 10 games, by 7 points. Michigan doesn't care if they make it 11 straight years losing against the spread if they get the W. Michigan State shouldn't care about that number either, there's no "Defeat with Dignity" here. Granted there's also no referendum on them if they don't win. That certainly isn't the case for Michigan, which has to get a win here and/or in Columbus to prevent the offseason roars from becoming deafening. But they also can't make this game about that, this team is too good. Last weekend's craziness has ensured Michigan controls their own destiny when it comes to the College Football Playoff. So while beating Michigan State and Ohio State is important, that's not what defines the second half of this season. It's a season split between six cakewalk games and six massive tests to Harbaugh's program. Through the first three of those tests, Michigan is 2-1. What looked impossible in the preseason looks a little different now. Northwestern, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State for sure do not look as formidable as they did preseason, and while it seems weird to say this about the #2 team in the nation, neither does Ohio State. The Spartans circled the wagons last week and pulled out a shorthanded stunner in Happy Valley, their 5th win in the last 6 games in the "rivalry," after losing 8 of the previous 10. If there's one thing Mark Dantonio has figured out, it's how to get his teams up for their three huge divisional games. Michigan State got slightly more creative with the playcalling than they had in previous weeks, trying to generate something from an offense that was down a starting running back, starting fullback, both starting guards, and was playing with one healthy scholarship receiver. They didn't get a ton of offense, but they got just enough. I doubt Michigan makes the same mistakes, leaving Felton Davis in single coverage far too often. Granted I kind of hope we see another battle between an MSU wide receiver and a UM cornerback like the show that Aaron Burbridge and Jourdan Lewis put on in 2015. Nobody is doing anything against this Michigan defense right now though. Michigan State's defense has been mostly up to the task too. They played better against the pass last week, the emergence of Khari Willis at safety has really helped there. Josiah Scott, the Spartans' best cornerback, who has missed the entire season, left some hints on social media that he'd be dressing, but if he's been practicing at all, it's been kept under wraps. Shea Patterson has looked more and more comfortable each week, and as he's done so he's looked like more and more a threat in the running game. The offense with him rolling out of the pocket is just so much better than when they try to force him into being the type of quarterback Harbaugh wants, which I think is the exact same type Bo wanted. Michigan State's defense has to prove they've improved a lot from Week 2, because what Manny Wilkins brought to the table is similar to what Patterson will. A great thrower, who is mobile enough to keep you honest, but still would ideally keep his head up and find the open receiver downfield. Wilkins missed on a couple of those, that Michigan State can't bank on Patterson missing. Granted Michigan doesn't have anyone, right now, like N'Keal Harry. A lot of what worked for Arizona State were the short crossing routes. Not the quick stuff that Clayton Thorson nickel and dimed Michigan State to death with, but longer developing plays, taking advantage of Wilkins buying extra time, and of Michigan State's lack of speed at the safety position. Patterson can hurt them the same way. So how can Michigan State win? Trade 3s for 7s. Michigan State is going to have some three and outs. I'd be shocked if Michigan doesn't win the yardage battle. So the Spartans have to convert the limited red zone shots they have, and keep force Nordin on to the field plenty for Michigan, who has struggled some this year. This is not without precedent, Michigan is only scoring touchdowns on 52.6% of their red zone possessions. Only Rutgers (50%) is worst. Conversely, Michigan State has only allowed touchdowns on 33.3% of their defensive red zone possessions, best in the conference, Michigan has allowed them on 75% of theirs, fifth worst. That's probably the only way this will happen, because I have a tough time seeing Michigan State generating much. But after picking Michigan to win this three years in a row, and being wrong twice, maybe I'll trust Michigan State in this rivalry until Michigan proves me wrong. I also already picked Michigan State to beat Northwestern comfortably, but lose to Indiana and badly to Penn State, so I clearly don't know my own team anyway. |
