header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 16   Go Down
Author

Topic: #6 Michigan (5-0, 7-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Post Game

 (Read 17892 times)

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
#6 Michigan (5-0, 7-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-2, 4-3) Post Game
« on: October 14, 2018, 04:31:55 PM »
The Line opens at Michigan -5. Seems fair. On paper, Michigan is the better team. I haven't looked but assume Bill Connelly has this one closer to M -8/12 on paper (it was M -10.5 with a 73% probability before this weekend). That's not really worth getting into, though. Away games versus ... anyone, but especially ranked teams, have been a Michigan bugaboo for a decade. This team has something that might let it turn the tide. The acid tests continue. Prove it.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2018, 04:42:36 PM by ELA »
Logged

Mdot21

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 14324
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (6-1, 4-0) at #24 MSU (4-2, 2-1)
« Reply #1 on: October 14, 2018, 04:34:27 PM »
It’s in East Lansing. Harbaugh sucks on the road.

There’s NO WAY that Michigan wins this game. 
Logged

MrNubbz

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 17106
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (6-1, 4-0) at #24 MSU (4-2, 2-1)
« Reply #2 on: October 14, 2018, 04:57:12 PM »
Sorry but you just used a NO WAY,no way are no ways allowed in consecutive weeks.Might even be an annual allocation!
Logged
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (6-1, 4-0) at #24 MSU (4-2, 2-1)
« Reply #3 on: October 14, 2018, 06:06:47 PM »
Just found this injury database:

Michigan
[th]Date[/th]
[th]Pos[/th]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]Injury[/th]
[th]Status[/th]
10/14/18DLMichael DwumfourLegis "?" Saturday vs Michigan State
10/14/18DLRashan GaryArmis "?" Saturday vs Michigan State
09/25/18DBBenjamin St-JusteUndisclosedis out for season
09/17/18QBJacob WestACLis out for season
09/11/18DLAubrey SolomonKneeis out indefinitely
09/09/18PBrad RobbinsBackis out indefinitely
09/03/18WRTarik BlackFootis out indefinitely
 
Michigan State
[th]Date[/th]
[th]Pos[/th]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]Injury[/th]
[th]Status[/th]
10/14/18FBCollin LucasUndisclosedis "?" Saturday vs Michigan
10/14/18GKevin JarvisAnkleis "?" Saturday vs Michigan
10/14/18RBLJ ScottHamstringis "?" Saturday vs Michigan
10/14/18WRJalen NailorUndisclosedis "?" Saturday vs Michigan
10/10/18PJake HartbargerLegis out for season
10/07/18WRCody WhiteHandis out indefinitely
10/07/18GDavid BeedleArmis out indefinitely
09/20/18DTMufi HuntKneeis out indefinitely
08/06/18CBJosiah ScottLegis out indefinitely
08/04/18CBTyson SmithMedicalis out for season
 

But it's not perfect. For Michigan it misses on Aubrey Solomon (who played last night, looked fine) and - probably - on Tarik (who may not be back but is practicing and seems poised for this one).
How does MSU's injury reality compare?
« Last Edit: October 14, 2018, 06:09:16 PM by Anonymous Coward »
Logged

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (6-1, 4-0) at #24 MSU (4-2, 2-1)
« Reply #4 on: October 14, 2018, 06:25:42 PM »

Logged

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #5 on: October 15, 2018, 12:34:05 AM »
For those who don't know, Bill Connelly is basically a version of medina who started as a cult favorite but with increasing fame became a national innovator of interpreting CFB games statistically. Maybe like Nate Silver, except #nopolitics. Anyway, one of his many weekly staples is a piece called The Five Factors (YPP, field position, points per scoring opportunity, turnover luck, and "success rate"), which are well defined many places, including SBNation or Football Study Hall if you're curious.**

**(no, my name is not Bill Connelly, nor am I his mom,shamelessly trying to bring you to my site)

Anyway, he does this analysis for every game nationally and then points out five of the most extreme examples for each factor. And guess which two teams featured this week?:

Top 5 points per scoring opportunity margins (vs. FBS)
  • North Texas (+6.4 vs. Southern Miss)
  • UAB (+5.0 vs. Rice)
  • Louisiana Tech (+4.4 vs. UTSA)
  • Iowa (+4.2 vs. Indiana)
  • Wisconsin (+3.7 vs. Michigan)
Goodness, just imagine how bad the Wisconsin-Michigan game could’ve been if Michigan had finished drives...
Top 5 turnovers luck margins (vs. FBS)
  • Michigan State (+4.1 vs. Penn State)
  • Houston (+3.8 vs. ECU)
  • Appalachian State (+3.7 vs. Arkansas State)
  • NIU (+3.1 vs. Ohio)
  • UCLA (+2.9 vs. Cal)

Translation: Michigan State had a turnover margin that was +4.1 ahead of where national averages suggest it should have been. As each turnover is worth approximately five points, that means the Spartans enjoyed about a 20- to 21-point boost thanks to turnovers luck. In a four-point win. I swear, that happens every single time Sparty plays PSU, Michigan, or Ohio State, doesn’t it...

« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 12:41:52 AM by Anonymous Coward »
Logged

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #6 on: October 15, 2018, 12:38:04 AM »
Of course, MSU technically deserved more turnover luck, given the uncalled fumble(s). We all saw at least the one by Sanders that was never reviewed before the snap.
Logged

Temp430

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2503
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #7 on: October 15, 2018, 05:03:33 AM »
Sparty run D is outstanding.

Dwumfour and Solomon played against Wisconsin.  Gary and Black expected back soon.  Maybe this Saturday?  Haven’t heard about Michigan Safety Kinnel who left the Wisconsin game with an injury.


« Last Edit: October 15, 2018, 05:07:47 AM by Temp430 »
Logged
A decade of Victory over Penn State.

All in since 1969

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20280
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #8 on: October 15, 2018, 07:54:29 AM »
Quote from: Anonymous Coward on October 14, 2018, 06:06:47 PM
Just found this injury database:























Michigan
[th]Date[/th]
[th]Pos[/th]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]Injury[/th]
[th]Status[/th]

10/14/18
DL
Michael Dwumfour
Leg
is "?" Saturday vs Michigan State

10/14/18
DL
Rashan Gary
Arm
is "?" Saturday vs Michigan State

09/25/18
DB
Benjamin St-Juste
Undisclosed
is out for season

09/17/18
QB
Jacob West
ACL
is out for season

09/11/18
DL
Aubrey Solomon
Knee
is out indefinitely

09/09/18
P
Brad Robbins
Back
is out indefinitely

09/03/18
WR
Tarik Black
Foot
is out indefinitely



Michigan State


[th]Date[/th]
[th]Pos[/th]
[th]Player[/th]
[th]Injury[/th]
[th]Status[/th]

10/14/18
FB
Collin Lucas
Undisclosed
is "?" Saturday vs Michigan

10/14/18
G
Kevin Jarvis
Ankle
is "?" Saturday vs Michigan

10/14/18
RB
LJ Scott
Hamstring
is "?" Saturday vs Michigan

10/14/18
WR
Jalen Nailor
Undisclosed
is "?" Saturday vs Michigan

10/10/18
P
Jake Hartbarger
Leg
is out for season

10/07/18
WR
Cody White
Hand
is out indefinitely

10/07/18
G
David Beedle
Arm
is out indefinitely

09/20/18
DT
Mufi Hunt
Knee
is out indefinitely

08/06/18
CB
Josiah Scott
Leg
is out indefinitely

08/04/18
CB
Tyson Smith
Medical
is out for season





But it's not perfect. For Michigan it misses on Aubrey Solomon (who played last night, looked fine) and - probably - on Tarik (who may not be back but is practicing and seems poised for this one).
How does MSU's injury reality compare?
Starting WR Darrell Stewart is also out.  He might play this week, but I would assume questionable at best considering he didn't make the trip last week.  Him, Nailor and Jarvis are the three who might return this week.
Logged

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 20280
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #9 on: October 15, 2018, 08:08:16 AM »
Sounds like Jarvis and Stewart are going to try to go, Nailor was a non contact knee injury in practice.  No word, but those are typically not good.
Logged

Anonymous Coward

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 3187
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #10 on: October 15, 2018, 09:56:04 PM »
Hopefully both teams are as healthy as possible just in time.
Logged

Temp430

  • All Star
  • ******
  • Posts: 2503
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #11 on: October 16, 2018, 07:43:39 AM »
The weather forecast for Saturday in East Lansing at this time, over 4 days in advance, is for a high of 47 with a 40% chance of showers and wind, 21 mph WNW.
« Last Edit: October 16, 2018, 07:45:16 AM by Temp430 »
Logged
A decade of Victory over Penn State.

All in since 1969

MaximumSam

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 13062
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #12 on: October 16, 2018, 10:36:18 AM »
Should be a fun game.  MSU a little more equipped defensively, and Dantonio usually has a few tricks for Michigan.  Hopefully MSU still has something in the tank after a big win, though.
Logged

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 11229
  • Liked:
Re: #6 Michigan (4-0, 6-1) at #24 Michigan State (2-1, 4-2) Game Week
« Reply #13 on: October 16, 2018, 10:55:25 AM »
For whatever reason Michigan doesn't get up for this game like MSU does. One team is playing like it is their Super Bowl, the other is just playing not to lose. 
Logged
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19
Pages: [1] 2 3 ... 16   Go Up
« previous next »
 
Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.
WeatherPROOF Sign Single Sided

Liberty Model RFID Safe Clock
Liberty RFID Safe Wall Clock