#2 Ohio State (9-0, 12-0) at #13 Michigan (6-3, 9-3) Post Game

[Brutus Buckeye]

[ELA]

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 12-0) at #13 Michigan Wolverines (6-2, 9-2)

NOON - Ann Arbor, MI - FOX

Ohio State with national title aspirations, Michigan looking to play the role of spoiler.  For any Ohio State fans who remember the pre-Tressell days, that thought gives you shivers.  Granted, it feels a lot different.  Unlike 1993, 1995 or 1996, Ohio State still has a game to play next week, against either Minnesota or Wisconsin, for a Big Ten Championship, and even with a loss to Michigan, probably still makes the Playoff.  Michigan, with a win, could find themselves in the Rose Bowl, finishing third in their own division.  I fail to buy any argument for how this is a better setup, but I digress.  As far as spoilers go, woah, this one is a doozy.  Those mid-September hot takes on the brains behind Alabama's offense last year, Locksley or Gattis, don't look so good anymore.  Something clicked in Happy Valley, and this Michigan offense is rolling now.  The most obvious improvement has been the turnovers, which went from a major problem, to non-existent.  Shea Patterson had only once in his Michigan career had a passer rating above 200, last year against SMU.  He's now done it in back to back games, completing 67.7% of his passes, with 9 touchdowns and 1 interception, with 11.5 ypa, after averaging 5.3 ypa prior to that.  Can he replicate that against the best pass defense in the nation?  The Buckeyes lead the nation in opponent yards per attempt, second in opponents passer rating, and are first in sack rating by a wide margin.  For comparison, the gap between Ohio State's 14.54% sack rate, and #2 Clemson, is about the same as the gap between Clemson and #17 Tennessee.  That's my main concern.  This offensive line has underperformed.  They've certainly improved, particularly in run blocking, but I don't see how they can stop this Buckeye pass rush.  They've been middle of the FBS at best in pass blocking, and as good as Patterson was against Michigan State and Indiana, he was sacked 6 times also.  While nationally, this is a referendum on Harbaugh, it really is a referendum on Don Brown.  Is he just a coordinator who does a good job of making great talent beat lesser talent, in other words, he never underachieves, or is he a great coordinator.  He had no answer for Penn State in 2017, he responded in 2018, and eventually in 2019.  Last year, Ohio State carved his defense up.  Can he respond?  I think so.  Justin Fields is fantastic.  But Dwayne Haskins was the best passer in the country last year.  Haskins threw for over 300 yards 9 times last year, with 5 of those going over 400.  He lit Michigan up to 396 yards through the air.  The Buckeyes only averaged 4.8 ypc on the ground, with one carry of longer than 10 yards.  This is a perhaps better, but very different Buckeye offense.  Justin Fields might be able to if needed, but he's only thrown for 300 yards once...against Rutgers.  The 2018 Buckeye offense got 68% of their yardage through the air, 16th most in the nation.  The 2019 version get just 46.76%, 18th FEWEST.  So while this Buckeye offense may be more consistent, I think it is less built to exploit Don Brown's scheme.  Mix in the 50th anniversary of #12 Michigan taking down #1 Ohio State in 1969, and...

MICHIGAN 28, OHIO STATE 27

[Cincydawg]

How often has Fields played in the 4th quarter?  I'm going to disagree and go with OSU 34-17.

[ELA]

How often has Fields played in the 4th quarter?  I'm going to disagree and go with OSU 34-17.

Yeah, I was trying to find those numbers, couldn't without heavy leg work.  OSU is #26 in 4th quarter scoring this year, and was #1 last year, so that would suggest Haskins was getting a lot more 4th quarter work

[Honestbuckeye]

It’s a great write up ELA.  

And if course it makes you wonder what effect the weather may have on passing.  

Should be a Dandy.  Fields is too 3 in QBR, top 4 in passer rating and top ten in completion %.  But he has never played in an environment or game like this and Patterson has- and has a hot hand.  

[Temp430]

And if course it makes you wonder what effect the weather may have on passing. 

The last two games ELA references, against Sparty and Indiana, were played in cold wet crappy weather.

[MaximumSam]

Yeah, I was trying to find those numbers, couldn't without heavy leg work.  OSU is #26 in 4th quarter scoring this year, and was #1 last year, so that would suggest Haskins was getting a lot more 4th quarter work

Per cfbstats, Fields is 13/16 for 110 yards and 3 tds/0 ints in the fourth quarter.  Haskins was 77/111 for 1048 yards and 14 TDs/1 int.

[FearlessF]

nice work

[ELA]

Per cfbstats, Fields is 13/16 for 110 yards and 3 tds/0 ints in the fourth quarter.  Haskins was 77/111 for 1048 yards and 14 TDs/1 int.

Thanks, didn't realize he had easy player breakdowns like that.

[Mdot21]

Fields is spectacular, but I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a B1G QB as good as Dwayne Haskins that Jr year. He was special. 

If Ohio State had this years defense with Haskins at QB, I’d call them a lock to win the whole damn thing.

[Cincydawg]

I favor the mobile QB who can pass effectively.  It might mean 3-4 plays extended into a something versus an 8 yard loss or 1 yard gain, and it is a threat the defense can't ignore as improbable.  If say Jake Fromm runs and gets 12 yards, well fine, but the D doesn't really care, it will happen once a game, but Fields can do it 3-4 times, especially if you let him by ignoring it.

A lot of UGA fans are looking at their "offense" this year and wishing they had Fields.

[MrNubbz]

It's not 3rd party smack, it's t-shirt fan bandwagoning.  Get your insults straight, amigo.

I figure The Ohio State University is going to win this game pretty convincingly, but there's always hope for a better outcome...

Yes beleaguered BLUE fans can just migrate to Austin where they can commiserate with their Shorthorn Brethern when they get schooled by the Sooners

[MrNubbz]

Nice write up ELA of course your final score forecast BLOWS

[medinabuckeye1]

#1 Ohio State Buckeyes (8-0, 12-0) at #13 Michigan Wolverines (6-2, 9-2)

MICHIGAN 28, OHIO STATE 27

Just in case @ELA is right, I've drafted this for my post-game FB post.  Please review and see if I missed any opportunity to be snarky, I wouldn't want to let one get past me:

To my friends who are fans of Michigan:
Congratulations on your team's win today but before you talk too much smack there are a few things you should consider:  

First, with today's win, your team has now beaten Ohio State three times in the last 19 years.  The last time your team had back-to-back wins over mine Bill Clinton was in the White House, the World Trade Center still stood and terrorism was something other countries had to worry about but not us.  

The only people alive in whose lifetimes Michigan owns a lead over Ohio State are infants born after 11/24/18 and supercentenarians born prior to October 24, 1908.  

Even after today's Ohio State loss:

• Ohio State leads 16-8 in the last 25 years
• Ohio State leads 26-21-2 over the last 50 years
• Ohio State leads 38-33-3 over the last 75 years
• Ohio State leads 49-46-4 over the last 100 years
• Ohio State leads in Conference games 50-47-4
• Ohio State also leads in games televised in color, televised games, and games that resemble modern football.  

Second, Ohio State has bigger fish to fry.  There might come a day when your team is good enough to be more than an unfortunate hiccup for a great team like Ohio State but today is not that day.  

Next Saturday night Ohio State will be playing in the Big Ten Championship Game.  You are forgiven if you are unfamiliar with this concept.  It has only been going on for nine years so your team has never been there.  Ohio State will be making their fifth appearance (3-1 so far).  Other teams with that have managed at least one more B1GCG appearance than Michigan include Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Penn State, Northwestern and even "Little Brother" Michigan State.  Also, Minnesota may make their first appearance this year.  Half of the teams in the Big Ten (more than half if Minnesota beats Wisconsin this evening) have been to the B1GCG but not your team.  

If the Buckeyes are fortunate enough to win the B1GCG, they will next play in the College Football Playoff.  This is another concept that you are forgiven for your ignorance of.  This has only been going on for six years so your team has never been there.  The Buckeyes, should they make it, will be making their third appearance (2-1 with a National Championship so far).  Your other chief rival, Notre Dame has also made an appearance in the CFP along with "Little Brother" Michigan State, Bama, Clemson, Oregon, Florida State, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Washington.  


Prior to the College Football Playoff the National Champion was determined by a National Championship game arranged by the BCS for 16 years.  This is yet another concept that you may be unfamiliar with as your team never made it.  Ohio State made three appearances and won a National Championship.