Review of tiers:
- Wisconsin (-1/+1), Purdue, Illinois -1, Michigan State -1
- Northwestern, Nebraska
- Maryland +2, Minnesota (-1/+2), Ohio State, Iowa (-2/+2), Rutgers -1
- Penn State (-1/+2), Indiana +1, Michigan (-3/+1)
Upsets so far have been:
There are two teams outside of +/-1 those are:
Michigan is -2 with one good upset (win in Iowa City) and three bad upsets (home losses to IU, MN, IA). Maybe we should move them down into a tier of their own? The difference would be the projected result in home games against Tier-3 teams. There are five of those but Michigan does not host Maryland so that gets us down to four:
- vs tOSU, W
- vs IA, L
- vs MN, L
- vs RU, 2/3
Since their home game against Rutgers is tomorrow lets just wait and see how that goes. If they lose they obviously need to move down. If they win then it is a six-and-one-half-dozen the other situation so who cares.
Maryland is +2 with upset road wins in Iowa City and Champaign. The difference between Tier-3 and Tier-2 is the projected result in home games against Tier-1 and road games against Tier-4 but Maryland does not host Wisconsin nor visit Michigan (irrelevant if we move Michigan down). That leaves five games:
- at IU, L on 12/1
- vs PU, L on 1/2
- vs MSU, L on 1/21
- vs IL on 2/17
- at PSU on 3/10
They are 0-3 with two to play so even if they win the other two they'd still be 2-3 and Tier-3.
All other teams are within +/-1 so I think the Tiers are good.
Based on the above, the updated projected final standings/BTT seeds are:
- 17-3/25-6 Wisconsin
- 16-4/27-4 Purdue
- 15-5/24-7 Illinois
- 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
- 12-8/22-9 Nebraska (wins tie with NU based on record against UW)
- 12-8/21-10 Northwestern
- 9-11/18-13 Minnesota (wins tie with UMD based on H2H, no game in College Park)
- 9-11/17-14 Maryland
- 7-13/15-16 Iowa (wins tie with PSU and tOSU based on H2H2H of 2-1, no game in Columbus)
- 7-13/13-18 Penn State (second in tie with IA and tOSU based on H2H2H of 2-2)
- 7-13/17-14 Ohio State (last in tie with IA and PSU based on H2H2H of 1-2, do not host Iowa)
- 6-14/14-17 Rutgers (wins tie with IU based on H2H, no game in Bloomington)
- 6-14/14-17 Indiana
- 3-17/8-23 Michigan
Based on that the match-ups for the BTT at the Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota would be:
Wednesday, March 13 (Peacock):
- #11 Ohio State vs #14 Michigan, 9pm
- #12 Rutgers vs #13 Indiana, 630
Thursday, March 14 (BTN):
- #5 Nebraska vs RU/IU, 230
- #6 Northwestern vs tOSU/M, 9pm
- #7 Minnesota vs #10 Penn State, 630
- #8 Maryland vs #9 Iowa, noon
Friday, March 15 (BTN):
- #1 Wisconsin vs UMD/IA, noon
- #2 Purdue vs MN/PSU, 630
- #3 Illinois vs NU/tOSU/M, 9pm
- #4 Michigan State vs UNL/RU/IU, 230
Saturday, March 16 (CBS):
- UW/UMD/IA vs MSU/UNL/RU/IU, 1pm
- PU/MN/PSU vs IL/NU/tOSU/M, 330
Sunday, St. Patrick's Day, March 17 (CBS):
- UW/UMD/IA/MSU/UNL/RU/IU vs PU/MN/PSU/IL/NU/tOSU/M, 330
The answer to
@Brutus Buckeye 's standing question is Wednesday at 9pm but nobody will see it because it is on Peacock.