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Topic: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

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847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1036 on: February 01, 2024, 12:25:22 PM »
You can tell this is the non football weekend, with the conferences putting a bunch of marquee games this weekend


  • #2 Purdue at #6 Wisconsin
  • #3 North Carolina at #7 Duke
  • #4 Houston at #8 Kansas
  • #5 Tennessee at #10 Kentucky


Too bad #1 UConn isn't playing #9 Marquette.  Then all top 10 teams would play each other
Heh. I think Wisconsin was picked to finish 5-8 depending on where you look. I think it's an accident, otherwise they'd have played PU/MSU this weekend as those were the consensus top 2.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1037 on: February 01, 2024, 12:50:01 PM »
I’m feeling a UW loss? Maybe? 

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1038 on: February 01, 2024, 12:54:23 PM »
Heh. I think Wisconsin was picked to finish 5-8 depending on where you look. I think it's an accident, otherwise they'd have played PU/MSU this weekend as those were the consensus top 2.
They only play once this year, and it's in Mackey.  You can just look up how MSU fares in that building, to see why it's not going to be a marquee game, even if MSU had lived up to preseason expectations

847badgerfan

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1039 on: February 01, 2024, 12:56:48 PM »
I’m feeling a UW loss? Maybe?
I think FC depth will win. They will certainly miss Kamari McGee for this one, to give Chucky a break.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

bayareabadger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1040 on: February 01, 2024, 03:11:20 PM »
I think FC depth will win. They will certainly miss Kamari McGee for this one, to give Chucky a break.
It’s a weird offense/defense thing, in my eyes. 

-Wisconsin will likely get good looks if they are patient. But if they decide occupations were are struggling with the open looks that Nebraska usually gives them, I guess that could be an issue. 

-Nebraska is good at offense and UW is inconsistent on defense. So that feels like a bit of a tossup to me

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1041 on: February 01, 2024, 03:11:55 PM »
I do believe Edey is better this year, and they are coaching the defense around him better this year.  But the freshmen have not made the leap I anticipated.  I actually think this team is worse than last year's.  Granted that's still enough to maybe be the best team in the Big Ten, and still one of the 5 best teams in the country.  So in a single elimination tournament, they should still be fine, but something seems slightly off.
A few weeks ago I asked the Purdue fans what they thought of their team and I was mildly surprised at the optimism in response.

I agree with @ELA . To be fair, I am (and I think he is as well) holding Purdue to a ridiculously high standard here but frankly they haven't looked as good as I expected.

They have played a tough schedule, the run in Maui was seriously impressive, and they are 20-2 so I'm certainly not saying that they are a bad team but . . . They have two losses to unranked teams and just beat unranked Northwestern at home in OT. As a fan of a dumpster 🔥, I assume my team WILL lose to Purdue but at this point I don't see that loss as substantially more certain than losses to UW and MSU.

In my many years of following Ohio State Basketball I've watched everything from train wrecks like this season and last to #1 seeds and even #1 overall seeds. I expected Purdue this year to look like the #1 seeds and maybe even like a #1 overall seed:
2010/11 Ohio State lost three games:
  • At #13 Wisconsin
  • At #11 Purdue
  • Vs #11 Kentucky in the S16 in Newark
2006/07 Ohio State lost four games:
  • At #6 UNC
  • At #4 Florida
  • At #4 Wisconsin
  • Vs #3 Florida in the NCAACG in Atlanta
1991/92 Ohio State lost six games:
  • At USC (in OT, by 2)
  • Swept by Indiana #5 and #7
  • At Seton Hall
  • At Iowa
  • Vs #15, a fabulous group of paid professionals cheating their way through the NCAA Tournament in Lexington, Kentucky


That is admittedly a REALLY high bar but that is what I expected out of Purdue this year and I'm not seeing it (maybe the 91/2 team but definitely not the other two).

boilerbanger

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1042 on: February 01, 2024, 03:34:38 PM »
@medinabuckeye1 my response to your post would be that in the 3 games you reference for Purdue this year see the 3 point percentage of the opponent in the games below:

@ Northwestern 50%
@ Nebraska 61%
NW @ Purdue 51%

The 3 is the great equalizer and when a team is hitting them it is tough ... Is Purdue a bad 3 point defensive team?  I don't think so because the 3 games appear to be outliers in how teams shoot the 3 vs Purdue compared to their season average.

Purdue sucked last Feb, they hit a wall ... this Feb will be interesting to see how it plays out (with a favorable schedule)

** I would also add the talent discrepancy among teams is much less now then it was 10 or 20 years ago

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1043 on: February 01, 2024, 03:55:20 PM »
A few weeks ago I asked the Purdue fans what they thought of their team and I was mildly surprised at the optimism in response.

I agree with @ELA . To be fair, I am (and I think he is as well) holding Purdue to a ridiculously high standard here but frankly they haven't looked as good as I expected.

They have played a tough schedule, the run in Maui was seriously impressive, and they are 20-2 so I'm certainly not saying that they are a bad team but . . . They have two losses to unranked teams and just beat unranked Northwestern at home in OT. As a fan of a dumpster 🔥, I assume my team WILL lose to Purdue but at this point I don't see that loss as substantially more certain than losses to UW and MSU.

In my many years of following Ohio State Basketball I've watched everything from train wrecks like this season and last to #1 seeds and even #1 overall seeds. I expected Purdue this year to look like the #1 seeds and maybe even like a #1 overall seed:
2010/11 Ohio State lost three games:
  • At #13 Wisconsin
  • At #11 Purdue
  • Vs #11 Kentucky in the S16 in Newark
2006/07 Ohio State lost four games:
  • At #6 UNC
  • At #4 Florida
  • At #4 Wisconsin
  • Vs #3 Florida in the NCAACG in Atlanta
1991/92 Ohio State lost six games:
  • At USC (in OT, by 2)
  • Swept by Indiana #5 and #7
  • At Seton Hall
  • At Iowa
  • Vs #15, a fabulous group of paid professionals cheating their way through the NCAA Tournament in Lexington, Kentucky


That is admittedly a REALLY high bar but that is what I expected out of Purdue this year and I'm not seeing it (maybe the 91/2 team but definitely not the other two).
You've seen that stat about top ten teams on the road against non-ranked teams this year though, right?
It is something like 40% win rate.

Top 10 Kentucky lost last night at home to 15-6 Florida.
3rd ranked UNC lost to a 10-11 GT team.
#5 Tennessee lost at home to a (admittedly pretty good) USC team.
Top 25 Memphis has now lost 4 in a row.
#8 Auburn lost to 14-6 Mississippi State.
#15 Baylor lost at home to 15-5 TCU.
#16 Dayton lost to 15-5 Richmond
#9 Arizona lost to 10-9 Oregon State
#10 Illinois lost at NW.

All of that in just the last 7 days.
Maybe it's a result of Covid and you've got some older-than-average teams out there.  Maybe it's just a really big year for parity.
Whatever the reason, NOBODY has looked dominant this year.

Part of the problem for Purdue is perception compared to last year.  I made this post a couple of days ago on another forum, so it is slightly out of date, but the information is generally still correct:

"I'm not sure that they are really struggling more than last year. They are only one game worse than last year at this point.

Looking at last year's schedule, up till this point they were 11-1 and they played the Big Ten ranked: 14, 11, 9 (L), 13, 10, 11, 4, 14, 6, 8, and 4. Only three games against teams in the top half of the Big Ten (and two of those were at home). The other teams they ended up losing to last year were ranked 2, 3, 3, and 6 (3 of those on the road).

So far in this year, they've played: 4 (L), 8, 5, 3, 6 (L), 12, 7, 8, 14, 13, and 4 (tomorrow, which I suspect will be a win, NW revenge game and NW is much worse on the road). So, 6 games against teams in the top half of the Big Ten. Their two losses are against #4 and #6 on the road. Sure, we are only halfway through the schedule, so those rankings may change, but I don't imagine it will change much from what I have seen so far this year.

So, Purdue had a much easier schedule on the front end last year.

While there certainly could be an upset in there, I suspect the only other games they could drop this year will be @Wisconsin (#1) and @Ill (#3). Even if they drop a random road game (@OSU?), that would still have them end up with the same record as last year and pretty equivalent losses."



medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1044 on: February 01, 2024, 04:16:30 PM »
Even if they drop a random road game (@OSU?)
Apparently you have watched less of my team than I have watched of yours.

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1045 on: February 01, 2024, 04:20:37 PM »
I’m feeling a UW loss? Maybe?
I saw the month changed, so I double checked, and it's now February, not March, so Purdue should still be good.  :57:

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1046 on: February 01, 2024, 04:39:05 PM »
@boilerbanger and @grillrat 

Maybe it is random hot nights from long range. Maybe it is parity. I don't know and I'm definitely NOT saying that Purdue isn't good, they are very good. Like I said, I'm using a REALLY high bar here. I'm comparing them to the three best Ohio State teams of my lifetime and they don't seem quite as good as I expected. 

ELA

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1047 on: February 01, 2024, 04:41:37 PM »
I mean I said they are still the best team in the Big Ten, and a clear top 5 team nationally

grillrat

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1048 on: February 01, 2024, 04:47:34 PM »
@boilerbanger and @grillrat

Maybe it is random hot nights from long range. Maybe it is parity. I don't know and I'm definitely NOT saying that Purdue isn't good, they are very good. Like I said, I'm using a REALLY high bar here. I'm comparing them to the three best Ohio State teams of my lifetime and they don't seem quite as good as I expected.
Out of curiosity, how many players from those OSU teams were drafted?  Part of the reason that Purdue is doing well is because they are playing exceptional team ball.

But at the end of their college careers, Edey might go first round, but I doubt anyone else even gets a whiff of the second round.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #1049 on: February 01, 2024, 04:48:22 PM »
I mean I said they are still the best team in the Big Ten, and a clear top 5 team nationally
I agree . . .
But I expected all-time great. I expected something like 29-2/19-1 heading into the BTT.

Like I said, REALLY high bar.

 

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