2023-2024 B1G Basketball Thread

[847badgerfan]

I’m not sure why Michigan is heavy favorites against Indiana tonight. They have not looked good at all. I don’t dislike Juwan, but I miss Beilein style basketball.

Greg Gard doesn't like him. 

[ELA]

MSU might want to consider guarding the perimeter.  Random thought 

[SuperMario]

Greg Gard doesn't like him.

Haha. Probably for good reason.

[bayareabadger]

I don’t know if that tells me more about MSU or UW. 

I think the badgers are definitely feeling themselves. Which I like. Michigan state still seems like a team whose best players would probably be third or fourth guys on really good teams. But their sixth through ninth are all better than that. 

[SuperMario]

UM in tier 5, I think.

FIFY

[847badgerfan]

UW to tier 1 maybe, @medinabuckeye1 .

[medinabuckeye1]

FIFY

UW to tier 1 maybe, @medinabuckeye1 .

IMHO, both moves would be premature. 

[SuperMario]

IMHO, both moves would be premature.

I don't know man. This Michigan team looks like the biggest mess of a team in the last 10-15 years. They look sloppy and without discipline. Tarris Reed was considered their top guy of their 2022 class and he looks terrible. Not great on D and only time he scores is an easy dunk. Yossef Khayat who was supposed to be a big time stud coming from Europe doesn't even see minutes. Dug McDaniel has games he can't thorw it in the ocean and I always thought his size would be an issue and it really seems like it is. I think this is a bottom 2-3 team in the conference.

[medinabuckeye1]

Lunardi's latest:

• #1 Purdue
• #4 Illinois
• #5 Wisconsin, Ohio State
• #7 Michigan State
• #9 Northwestern

Surprisingly little bubble* presence for our league.  None of the six above projected to be in are on the bubble and only Iowa (first team out) from our league is currently on the wrong side of the bubble.  

*Note:
I'm defining "bubble" here as Lunardi's:

• Last four byes
• Last four in (the teams that have to play play-in games)
• First four out (Iowa)
• Next four out

What would these seeds mean for the league's chances in March:
Nearly all of it falls on Purdue.  #1 seeds almost always win their opener (150/152), make the S15 better than 84% of the time (128/152), make the E8 roughly 2/3 of the time (101/152), make the F4 nearly half of the time (61/152), and make the Championship game 25% of the time (38/152).  

Seven and nine seeds win their opener 61% and 52% of the time respectively but then they run up against some of the best teams in the country and nearly always crash with only 19% and 5% respectively making it out of the first weekend.  

That leaves the two projected #5 seeds and the #4 seed.  On average those should produce just over two first round winners, just over one team to make it out of the opening weekend, and less than 1/3 of a team to win a game after the first weekend.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't know man. This Michigan team looks like the biggest mess of a team in the last 10-15 years. They look sloppy and without discipline. Tarris Reed was considered their top guy of their 2022 class and he looks terrible. Not great on D and only time he scores is an easy dunk. Yossef Khayat who was supposed to be a big time stud coming from Europe doesn't even see minutes. Dug McDaniel has games he can't thorw it in the ocean and I always thought his size would be an issue and it really seems like it is. I think this is a bottom 2-3 team in the conference.

From the look of things so far, there will be a LOT of competition for that "bottom 2-3 team in the conference" distinction:

• Minnesota looks terrible.  
• Penn State looks terrible.  
• Maryland looks terrible.  
• Michigan looks bad.  
• Indiana looks bad.  

[ELA]

Lunardi's latest:

• #1 Purdue
• #4 Illinois
• #5 Wisconsin, Ohio State
• #7 Michigan State
• #9 Northwestern

What would these seeds mean for the league's chances in March:

Tom Izzo as a 7 seed: 10-5 (3 Sweet 16s, 2 Elite 8s, 1 Final 4)

More Elite 8s as a 7 seed than Matt Painter as any seed

[SuperMario]

From the look of things so far, there will be a LOT of competition for that "bottom 2-3 team in the conference" distinction:

• Minnesota looks terrible. 
• Penn State looks terrible. 
• Maryland looks terrible. 
• Michigan looks bad. 
• Indiana looks bad. 

Ha.. please elaborate how you decided to use terrible vs bad. 

[betarhoalphadelta]

Nearly all of it falls on Purdue.  #1 seeds almost always win their opener (150/152), make the S15 better than 84% of the time (128/152), make the E8 roughly 2/3 of the time (101/152), make the F4 nearly half of the time (61/152), and make the Championship game 25% of the time (38/152). 

Purdue as a 1 seed only wins their R64 opener 75%, make the S16 50%, the E8 25%, and the F4 (or beyond) 0%. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Tom Izzo as a 7 seed: 10-5 (3 Sweet 16s, 2 Elite 8s, 1 Final 4)

More Elite 8s as a 7 seed than Matt Painter as any seed

Purdue as a 1 seed only wins their R64 opener 75%, make the S16 50%, the E8 25%, and the F4 (or beyond) 0%.

I'm aware of both of these things but they could change.  Also, from a conference-wide perspective they kinda balance out.  If we end up with a #1 seed PU that loses in the R32 and a #7 seed MSU that goes to the F4 then, as a league, we end up with roughly what was expected out of those two just not from the ones that we expected it from.  

Ha.. please elaborate how you decided to use terrible vs bad.

It is early and I'm guessing.  Also, preseason expectation is still a big part of it.