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Topic: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #84 on: June 22, 2022, 10:42:18 AM »
So UW is #9.

OK.

Last year they were #10.
I just addressed that, while you were posting this but two things:
  • Not MY rankings, just a list I found when looking for something with which to analyze schedules, and
  • It sounds crazy as does Rutgers at #3 but it sounds a LOT less crazy if you assume as @ELA did above that there is basically a cluster of eight teams after Indiana that are all basically interchangeable.  Then RU isn't "really" six spots ahead of UW but instead the two of them and six other teams are all basically tied for 2nd through 9th.  That I could see.  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #85 on: June 22, 2022, 11:43:38 AM »
Looking more in depth at my team, Ohio State:

Per the earlier linked power ranking list:
"What I like:  The Buckeyes are the team with the greatest possible variance next season.  Chris Holtmann has four top-75 national recruits arriving as well as a trio of senior transfers.  On top of that, the Buckeyes return Justice Sueing, who missed all but two games last year due to injury.  
Ohio State's chemistry is completely unknown.  But if the Buckeyes mesh, this team could be the dark horse Wisconsin was a year ago.
What I don't like:  EJ Liddell and Malaki Branham are both likely first-round picks, so arguably no team in the B1G has more talent to replace.  And if all these new faces don't really like each other?  Whew.  Good luck with that."

I can't say that I disagree with any of that.  The Buckeyes just seem like a complete unknown for 2022-23.  

Seniors:
Justice Sueing, F:  Seuing is from Hawaii and played his first two years of college ball at Cal.  As a Sophomore at Cal way back in 2018-19 he was Cal's leading scorer then as a Junior at Ohio State in 2020-21 he was Ohio State's third-leading scorer behind only Duane Washington and EJ Liddell.  Last year he had an abdominal hernia and only played in the first two games.  I guess that makes him something of a microcosm of the Buckeyes' roster as a whole.  His potential is sky-high but who knows where how he will actually play.  

Seth Towns, F:  Towns is somewhat similar to Sueing as a complete unknown despite being in his SEVENTH year of College ball.  He played the 2016-17 and 2017-18 seasons at Harvard then missed a couple at Harvard due to injury then transferred to Ohio State, played some during the 2020-21 season unspectacularly, then missed last year with an injury.  His seventh year could be great or . . . who knows.  

Sean McNeil, G:  McNeil is a transfer from WVU where he had a pretty solid career.  

Tanner Holden, G:  Holden is a transfer from Wright State where he had a pretty solid career.  

Isaac Likekele, G:  Likekele is a transfer from OkSU where he had a pretty solid career.  

Juniors:
Eugene Brown III, F:  Brown has been in the program for a while and is a serviceable player but probably never will be a star.  

Zed Key, C:  Key was solid last year.  

No Sophomores?

Freshmen:
Bruce Thorton, G:  Thornton is a 6-1, 205# 4* PG out of Alpharetta, GA who was ranked #43 nationally.  

Roddy Gayle JR, G:  Gayle is a 6-4, 195# 4* SG out of Mount Pleasant, UT who was ranked #42 nationally.  

Bowen Hardman, G:  Hardman is a 6-3, 160# 3* SG out of Cincinnati, OH who was ranked #303 nationally, will likely redshirt.  

Brice Sensabaugh, F:  Sensabaugh is a 6-6, 240# 4* SF out of Olrando, FL who was ranked #61 nationally.  

Kalen Etzler, F:  Etzler is a 6-8, 195# 3* out of Convoy, OH who was ranked #159 nationally (last year).  He redshirted last year.  

Felix Okpara, C:  Okpara is a 6-11, 210# 4* out of Branson, MO who was ranked #58 nationally.  

There are enough impressive pieces here such that if everybody plays to their potential and meshes well the Buckeyes are easily a B1G Championship contender.  OTOH, there are enough question marks based on not having played together and returning from absences/transfers that I could also easily see this team struggling for the bubble.  

Within the B1G there aren't any teams that I can confidently say will definitely be better than the Buckeyes but there are only a few (Nebraska, MN, NU and maybe PSU/UMD) that I am confident the Buckeyes will be better than.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #86 on: June 22, 2022, 11:45:57 AM »
Yes, I knew those were not your rankings. UW is hard to figure this year. I mean, they lost a lottery pick, but that said, nobody would have guessed he was gonna be that going into last year.

So, who on the current team is the next lottery pick?

Who replaces the leadership of 17 year player Brad Davison?
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #87 on: June 22, 2022, 04:56:32 PM »
So UW is #9.

OK.

Last year they were #10.
I read this as meaning "it is crazy to rank UW that low".  Then . . .
So, who on the current team is the next lottery pick?

Who replaces the leadership of 17 year player Brad Davison?
I read this as meaning "maybe #9 isn't all that ridiculous."  

I feel the same way about my team and I think most of the teams in that #2-#9 group fall into this category one way or another.  







847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #88 on: June 23, 2022, 07:19:20 AM »
I can't see them finishing lower than #4. It's what they do.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #89 on: June 23, 2022, 09:53:49 AM »
I can't see them finishing lower than #4. It's what they do.
I get it and when I look at Wisconsin that's how'd I'd explain the optimistic projection.  I'd simply state that UW has a long history of developing unheralded recruits and consistently finishing top-4 in the B1G.  But . . .
UW is hard to figure this year. I mean, they lost a lottery pick, but that said, nobody would have guessed he was gonna be that going into last year.

So, who on the current team is the next lottery pick?

Who replaces the leadership of 17 year player Brad Davison?
Pessimistically, can you really expect UW to pull of the complete under-the-radar guy becoming a lottery pick and all of a sudden they are B1G Championship contenders trick again?  

I think you know this, but I don't mean this to pick on UW at all.  I can do the same thing with my team:
Optimistically:
They have a ton of talent with four freshmen in the top-61 nationally.  They also have a remarkable amount of experience with three senior transfers, Sueing back for his sixth year of college ball, and Towns back for his seventh along with Juniors Brown and Key.  

Pessimistically:
Who knows if those talented freshman will actually be ready for bigtime college ball and while the Buckeyes have a ton of experience, very little of it was gained in Ohio State jerseys.  Instead it came at Cal (Sueing), Harvard (Towns), WVU (McNeil), OkSU (Likekele), and Wright State (Holden).  

What I am saying is that I think that entire group of teams (UW, tOSU, IL, PU, MSU, RU, IA, M) each have a ceiling of a B1G Championship or beyond but they also each have enough question marks that I could see any of them playing in the #8/9 game on Thursday, March 9 in Chicago and needing a win there to get on the right side of the bubble.  

medinabuckeye1

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #90 on: June 23, 2022, 09:55:51 AM »
@847badgerfan , I want to insert this here so that you don't misread my comments as disparaging Wisconsin.  I have great respect for Wisconsin's remarkable consistency and ability to develop rather unheralded recruits and compete at the highest levels year-in and year-out.  That said, in any given year it is hard to look at them preseason and be completely confident that they'll do it again.  Upthread you said:
So, who on the current team is the next lottery pick?

Who replaces the leadership of 17 year player Brad Davison?
This is exactly what I am getting at.  Based on the program's history I assume that they will find these pieces (maybe not a lottery pick, but good enough to compete for the league title) and finish in the top-4 but I have wavering confidence because I have no idea who those guys will be and once in a while even Wisconsin misses.  History:
  • 22:  Tied for 1st/2nd in the league, R32
  • 21:  Tied for 6th/7th in the league, 5.5 GB, R32
  • 20:  Tied for 1st/2nd/3rd in the league, NO NCAA due to Covid
  • 19:  4th in the league, 2 GB, R64
  • 18:  9th in the league, 9 GB, NO BID
  • 17:  Tied for 2nd/3rd in the league, 2 GB, S16
  • 16:  Tied for 3rd/4th/5th/6th in the league, 3 GB, S16
  • 15:  1st in the league, NCG
  • 14:  Tied for 2nd/3rd in the league, 3 GB, F4
  • 13:  Tied for 4th/5th in the league, 2 GB, R64
  • 12:  4th in the league, 1 GB, S16
  • 11:  3rd in the league, 3 GB, S16
  • 10:  4th in the league, 1 GB, R32
  • 09:  Tied for 4th/5th in the league, 5 GB, R32
  • 08:  1st in the league, S16
  • 07:  2nd in the league, 2 GB, R32
  • 06:  Tied for 4th/5th in the league, 3 GB, R64
  • 05:  3rd in the league, 4 GB, E8
  • 04:  Tied for 2nd/3rd in the league, 1 GB, R32
  • 03:  1st in the league, S16

So in the last 20 years Wisconsin has finished:
  • First or tied for first 5 times
  • 1 game out of first 3 times
  • 2 games out of first 4 times
  • 3 games out of first 4 times
  • 4 games out of first once
  • 5 or 5.5 games out of first 2 times
  • 9 games out of first once.  
So in the last twenty years the Badgers have been in the thick of the league title race (I'm defining that as finishing within 2 games of the title) 12 times, they've had competitive but not great teams (3-5.5 games out) seven times, and they've had just one bad season (9 games out).  

They've also had:
  • A NCG appearance
  • 2 F4's
  • 3 E8's
  • 9 S16's
  • 18 NCAA Appearances (out of 19 possible and they obviously would have been in but for the cancellation in 2020 so effectively 19 out of 20).  

That is flat out amazing and frankly, as an Ohio State fan, I'm envious.  I would argue that my Buckeyes have had higher highs in that time but even that is debatable and the Buckeyes have obviously had lower lows and a lot more seasons in which they weren't in the thick of the league title race.  

My lack of complete confidence is simply a reflection of the fact that even Wisconsin's model does occasionally fail.  It may only be once every 20 years and it has only been once in the last 20 years but sometimes those guys you thought were diamonds in the rough turn out to be just plain rough and sometimes those leaders in the making turn out to be just not leaders and you finish nine games out of the league title and miss the NCAA.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #91 on: June 23, 2022, 10:10:28 AM »
UW has many really good/great pieces to put a good team on the floor this year. Still would like to see a transfer big come in, but it's a little late now that the team is practicing again.
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #92 on: June 24, 2022, 12:12:17 PM »
UW gets Wake in Madison for the challenge.

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ELA

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #93 on: June 24, 2022, 12:20:06 PM »
Digger Phelps kept ND from playing MSU for decades, but now this has to be like the 3rd time in 4 years we've played them.  Twice in the Challenge, once in a preseason tourney

ELA

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #94 on: June 27, 2022, 10:21:26 PM »
MSU is going to have a heck of a time just going .500 in non conference play


https://twitter.com/RicoBeard/status/1541582140453814272?t=ZJgpP42v9uaXLD_CDrMgCw&s=19

847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #95 on: June 28, 2022, 09:25:57 AM »
That is brutal.
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #96 on: June 28, 2022, 09:31:48 AM »
UW has Stanford on November 11, at the Milwaukee Brewers stadium. That the BFA:



Then Wake in the Challenge.

I know Market will be in there somewhere, as usual.

UW is not in the Gavitt lineup this year.
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bayareabadger

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Re: 2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread
« Reply #97 on: June 28, 2022, 11:55:12 PM »
Solid schedule, hoping for a big game or two to pop. 

This team will be testing my theory of depth being overrated unless they land a late transfer who can play or the redshirt freshman steps up (ideally both). 

 

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