2022-2023 B1G Basketball Thread

[bayareabadger]

Illinois is just reloading in the transfer market.  Can't wait to see this team.

I was … not pleased to see that. 

The Baylor kid messed UW up in the 2021 tournament 

[ELA]

Illinois is just reloading in the transfer market.  Can't wait to see this team.

But are you?

They may be very good.  But basketball is so contingent on feeling actual connections to the kids, so I actually think the transfers/one and dones have harmed it far more than football.  One of my co-workers is a Kentucky fan, and this was a 2018 conversations where he told me how hard it is to really get behind a team full of guys you are familiar with for 3 months.

[bayareabadger]

But are you?

They may be very good.  But basketball is so contingent on feeling actual connections to the kids, so I actually think the transfers/one and dones have harmed it far more than football.  One of my co-workers is a Kentucky fan, and this was a 2018 conversations where he told me how hard it is to really get behind a team full of guys you are familiar with for 3 months.

This is something I kind of wonder about. There's a certain breed of fan that feels this way, to be sure.

But I think there's a large, large contingent of fans that always wants something new. We're always looking to bench QBs, fire offensive coordinators and try that young guy with some buzz out of camp, the hot freshman. 

Maybe it's just being around certain circles, but you sometimes feel like a lot of folks would rather start the freshman again than live with the solid junior who got thrown in as a sophomore. That group at least seems to want change until it's good, and in college sports, you could always be better, so the thirst for change remains. And the modern game feeds that, for better or worse. 

(On another note, I need some big still in the portal to just swallow his pride and become a goddamn Badger)

[NickSmith4Three]

I can be excited for what should be a good team and still not like the current environment.  It is what it is.  I don't like that kids basically need to be re-recruited every year or they will just transfer somewhere else. NIL is the wild west right now.  I can't control these things but I am not going to support it less because I have to learn some new names each year.

[ELA]

Christie, Diabate, Houstan all staying the the Draft.

Not sure the Big Ten has ever lost this much as once.  Am enjoy Edey and Dickinson pretending like their decisions are due to "unfinished business"

[bayareabadger]

Christie, Diabate, Houstan all staying the the Draft.

Not sure the Big Ten has ever lost this much as once.  Am enjoy Edey and Dickinson pretending like their decisions are due to "unfinished business"

It's true.

The Big Ten has never lost Brad Davison before. Just a massive departure. 

[847badgerfan]

Brad Davison was a high school quarterback, back in the 1990's.

[medinabuckeye1]

The B1G dropped the 2022-23 basketball schedule, link.  

Here is my spreadsheet version:


I use this for calculating projected finish with our tier system so if you notice any mistakes in data-entry please let me know.  

There are a number of missed games that I believe should be played every year including:

• UNL at UW
• IA at IL
• PU at IL
• M at tOSU
• RU at UMD
• MN at IA

I don't feel that I know enough about what to expect yet to get a feel for who has the lucky and unlucky draws here.  

[ELA]

I don't feel that I know enough about what to expect yet to get a feel for who has the lucky and unlucky draws here. 

I saw a schedule analysis on Twitter state that Illinois and Michigan got the most favorable draws based on preseason expectations, but with as much year to year turnover as there is now, I'm not sure how accurate that is.

[Abba]

This is the most wide open I can remember the conference being.  I guess we'll call Indiana the early favorite, based on returning experience.  They were pretty shaky last year though, so I would think it's more likely that one of the unknowns rises up to win the conference.  We just don't know which team that might be.

[ELA]

This is the most wide open I can remember the conference being.  I guess we'll call Indiana the early favorite, based on returning experience.  They were pretty shaky last year though, so I would think it's more likely that one of the unknowns rises up to win the conference.  We just don't know which team that might be.

MSU fans are scared about how bad our front court is, and CBS just put them #2 behind Indiana.  It might be a cluster of like 8 teams that will get somewhere between a 5 and 10 seed behind them.  Who finishes #2 and #9 in conference may come down to schedule.  If that's true, but Illinois and Michigan have the easiest draws, I might put in a futures bet on one of them to win the conference, because I don't fully trust Indiana, and it may just come down to who has the easiest schedule

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't vouch for this list but I just wanted a starting point to look at schedules so I used it because it was the first hit on a google search for a 2022-23 B1G BB Power Ranking, here is the list:

• Indiana
• Illinois
• Rutgers
• Michigan
• Iowa
• Michigan State
• Ohio State 
• Purdue
• Wisconsin
• Maryland
• Penn State
• Minnesota
• Northwestern
• Nebraska

So looking at schedules:
#1 Indiana:  The Hoosiers do not host #10 UMD, #11 PSU, or #12 MN and they do not visit #7 in Columbus, #9 in Madison, or #14 in Lincoln.  If this list is anywhere close to right the Hoosiers have a ROUGH league schedule.  Not having to visit Columbus and/or Madison might help but the other four missed games are all easily probable wins.  

#2 Illinois:  The Illini do not host #5 IA, #8 PU, or #10 UMD and they do not visit #3 in Piscataway, #4 in Ann Arbor, or #6 in East Lansing.  If this list is anywhere close to right the Illini do appear to have a pretty favorable schedule as all six games that they miss appear to be at least "losable" and the Illini would be lucky to go better than .500 in these games if they played all six.  

#3 Rutgers:  The Scarlet Knights (#3?) do not host #2 IL, #8 PU, or #9 UW and they do not visit #4 in Ann Arbor, #10 in State College, or #14 in Lincoln.  This seems like a mixed bag to me.  They miss one probable road loss (M) and two probable road wins (UMD, UNL) while missing a difficult but winnable home game (IL) and two probable home wins (PU, UW).  

#4 Michigan:  The Wolverines do not host #2 IL, #3 RU, and #5 IA and they do not visit #7 in Columbus, #8 in West Lafayette, or #14 in Lincoln.  This feels more like a mixed bag than a seriously favorable schedule.  The three home games missed would all likely be challenging if played but probably projected wins at home.  Missing trips to Columbus and West Lafayette is probably helpful but a road game in Lincoln would be a likely win.  

#5 Iowa:  The Hawkeyes do not host #8 PU, #11 PSU, or #12 MN and they do not visit #2 in Champaign, #4 in Ann Arbor, or #10 in State College.  This looks favorable to me.  

#6 Michigan State:  The Spartans do not host #2 IL, #9 UW, or #11 PSU and they do not visit #10 in State College, #12 in Minneapolis, or #13 in Evanston.  If this list is anywhere close to right, the Spartans have a ROUGH league schedule.  All six games would likely be considered at least "winnable" if played with several looking like near-certain wins.  

#7 Ohio State:  The Buckeyes do not host #1 IU, #4 M, or #14 UNL and they do not visit #9 in Madison, #11 in Happy Valley, or #12 in Minneapolis.  This looks like not great news for the Buckeyes.  UNL at home, along with PSU and MN on the road would all probably be projected wins if played while the home games against IU and M and the road game in Madison would be challenging but potentially "winnable" if played.  

#8 Purdue:  The Boilermakers do not host #4 M, #9 UW, or #13 NU and they do not visit #2 in Champaign, #3 in Picastaway, or #5 in Iowa City.  This looks like mostly good news for the Boilermakers because they miss three likely very challenging road games and only one game (vsNU) that would be a near-certain win if played.  

#9 Wisconsin:  The Badgers (#9?) do not host #1 IU, #7 tOSU, or #14 UNL and they do not visit #3 in Picastaway, #6 in East Lansing, or #8 in West Lafayette.  This looks fairly favorable to me as all three road games would be challenging if played along with at least the IU home game.  

#10 Maryland:  The Terps do not host #3 RU, #5 IA, or #6 MSU and they do not visit #1 in Bloomington, #2 in Champaign, or #13 in Evanston.  This looks HIGHLY favorable to me as it looks like five of these would be projected losses if played.  

#11 Penn State:  The Nittany Lions do not host #7 tOSU, #12 MN, or #13 NU and they do not visit #1 in Bloomington, #5 in Iowa City, or #6 in East Lansing.  I think this schedule SUCKS for the Nittany Lions because they miss two of the VERY few probable wins available (vs MN, vs NU).  For a team that is probably going to struggle to find wins, missing two of them hurts a lot.  

#12 Minnesota:  The Gophers do not host #6 MSU, #7 tOSU or #13 NU and they do not visit #1 in Bloomington, #5 in Iowa City, or #11 in Happy Valley.  Seems like a mixed bag.  

#13 Northwestern:  The Wildcats do not host #6 MSU, #10 UMD, or #14 UNL and they do not visit #8 in West Lafayette, #11 in Happy Valley, or #12 in Minneapolis.  I think this schedule SUCKS for the Wildcats because they miss too many of the bottom tier teams that they might actually be able to beat.  

#14 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers do not host #1 IU, #3 RU, or #4 M and they do not visit #7 in Columbus, #8 in Madison, or #13 in Evanston.  This appears favorable for Nebraska as the three home games not played are games that they would almost certainly lose anyway.  

[847badgerfan]

So UW is #9. 

OK.

Last year they were #10.

[medinabuckeye1]

This is the most wide open I can remember the conference being.  I guess we'll call Indiana the early favorite, based on returning experience.  They were pretty shaky last year though, so I would think it's more likely that one of the unknowns rises up to win the conference.  We just don't know which team that might be.

MSU fans are scared about how bad our front court is, and CBS just put them #2 behind Indiana.  It might be a cluster of like 8 teams that will get somewhere between a 5 and 10 seed behind them.  Who finishes #2 and #9 in conference may come down to schedule.  If that's true, but Illinois and Michigan have the easiest draws, I might put in a futures bet on one of them to win the conference, because I don't fully trust Indiana, and it may just come down to who has the easiest schedule

Things will probably sort out by the time conference play begins but for now it seems you two and the power ranking list I linked above are all on the same page.  Basically tiers of:

• Indiana (but this assumes that they actually do it)
• Illinois, Rutgers, Michigan, Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
• Maryland, Penn State, Minnesota, Northwestern
• Nebraska

Upthread I put "?" after their rankings of Rutgers at #3 and Wisconsin at #9 but that makes sense if you basically think that roughly #2 through #9 are basically interchangeable.  Ie, Rutgers isn't "really" six spots ahead of Wisconsin, instead those two plus Illinois and the five teams between them are basically a giant eight-way tie for second.  


If we set those as tiers then:

• Indiana would go 18-8 on a full double-round-robin (win all home games, win road games against tier-3 and tier-4, lose road games against tier-2).  
• The eight tier-2 teams would go 14-12 on a full double-round robin (win all home games, win road games in Lincoln, lose all road games except in Lincoln).  
• The four tier-3 teams would go 12-14 on a full double-round-robin (win all home games except against IU, lose all road games).  
• Nebraska would go 4-22 on a full double-round robin (win home games against tier-3, lose all other games).  

Plugging in the schedule:

• 14-6 Indiana:  The Hoosiers miss four wins and two losses so they end up 14-6.  
• 11-9 Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan State, Iowa:  The Badgers, Illini, Boilermakers, Buckeyes, Spartans, and Hawkeyes miss three wins and three losses each so they end up 11-9.  
• 10-10 Rutgers, Michigan:  The Scarlet Knights and Wolverines don't play in Lincoln so they miss four wins and two losses each and end up 10-10.  
• 9-11 Penn State, Northwestern, Maryland, Minnesota:  The Nittany Lions, Wildcats, Terps, and Gophers miss three wins and three losses each and end up 9-11.  
• 4-16 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers miss six losses and end up 4-16.  

I'm not putting this out as a projection and I don't think that it will come to pass.  I am just putting it here as a starting point.  My guess is that tier-2 roughly needs to be split in half.  About four of those teams should probably stay in tier-2 while the other roughly half drop to a new tier-3 with the existing tier-3 and tier-4 each sliding down one slot to tier-4 and tier-5.  The problem is that I have absolutely no clue which current tier-2 teams should stay in tier-2 and which should drop and I don't think we'll really know until at least late December.