2021-2022 B1G Basketball thread

[medinabuckeye1]

Differences between @ELA 's and Lunardi's:

• ELA has MSU as a #4, Lunardi as a #3
• ELA has IL as a #6, Lundardi as a #5
• ELA has IU as a #8, Lunardi as a #7
• ELA has IA as a #9, Lunardi as a #7

The differences don't seem all that significant.  Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are the same in each (1, 3, 5 respectively) while MSU, IL, and IU are one seed lower in ELA's and Iowa is two seeds lower in ELA's.  

Also, ELA has Michigan as a #2 seed in the NIT which theoretically should be one of the "Next Four Out" in the big dance so that is better than Lunardi who does not mention them.  Michigan is the closest thing we have to a bubble team right now.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Iowa and Penn State played yesterday and there are 12 teams playing this week tonight, Wednesday night, or Thursday night:

• MSU @ UMD Tuesday at 7 on ESPN2
• RU @ NU Tuesday at 7 on BTN
• UNL @ M Tuesday at 9 on BTN
• PU @ MN Wednesday at 7 on BTN
• UW @ IL Wednesday at 9 on BTN (How is this on BTN?)
• IA @ tOSU Thursday at 8 on FS1

The most interesting game is the one in Champaign.  Wisconsin and Illinois only play once this season so this is it.  Illinois is projected to win and both are projected to finish 14-6 and tied for 4th/5th a half game behind #3 tOSU and one game behind #1/2 PU/MSU.  

If Wisconsin wins they'll move up into a projected tie for the league title with PU and MSU at 15-5 and Illinois looks vulnerable.  In their last four games they lost at home to Purdue, lost at Maryland, barely survived MSU at home (after holding a huge lead), and barely survived Northwestern on the road.  The Badgers really look to be hitting on all cylinders.  They are 9-1 in their last 10 although the lone setback was a home loss to Michigan State.  These two are the co-leaders in the league at the halfway point at 8-2 one half game ahead of MSU (7-2), one game ahead of Purdue (7-3), and a game-and-a-half ahead of tOSU and IU (6-3 and 7-4 respectively).  

[ELA]

Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 51 computers

• Gonzaga (2)
• Auburn (4)
• Baylor (3)
• Arizona (1)
• PURDUE (7)
• Houston (6)
• Kansas (5)
• Kentucky (12)
• UCLA (11)
• Villanova (8)
• Duke (9)
• Texas Tech (14)
• LSU (10)
• MICHIGAN STATE (13)
• Tennessee (15)
• WISCONSIN (18)
• Connecticut (19)
• ILLINOIS (17)
• Alabama (16)
• Xavier (20)
• Texas (23)
• OHIO STATE (22)
• USC (21)
• Saint Mary's (-)
• Providence (-)

• 27. Iowa (24)
• 28. Indiana (32)
• 48. Michigan (46)
• 78. Minnesota (70)
• 85. Maryland (81)
• 90. Northwestern (83)
• 95. Penn State (82)
• 100. Rutgers (92)
• 187. Nebraska (178)

[medinabuckeye1]

Composite Computer Rankings (last week in parenthesis) - 51 computers

For the most part this lines up with our tiers:

• #5 Purdue, #14 MSU, #16 UW, #18 IL, #22 tOSU
• #27 IA, #28 IU, #100 RU
• #48 M, #78 MN, #85 UMD, #90 NU, #95 PSU
• blank
• #187 UNL

If I were making tiers based on these rankings they would be:

• Purdue
• Michigan State, Wisconsin, Illinois
• Ohio State, Iowa, Indiana
• Michigan
• Minnesota, Maryland, Northwestern, Penn State, Rutgers
• blank
• blank
• blank
• Nebraska

The big outliers are #100 Rutgers being in tier-2 and #48 Michigan being in tier-3.  Within the conference at least so far though, those tiers make sense.  
Rutgers; the difference between tier-2 and tier-3 is expected result in home games against tier-1.  Those are:

• vs PU 12/9, W
• vs MSU 2/5
• vs tOSU 2/9
• vs IL 2/16
• vs UW 2/26

Rutgers is 1-0 with four left to play.  They also have offsetting upsets against Maryland (won away, lost home)

Michigan; the difference between tier-3 and tier-2 is expected result in home games against tier-1.  Those are:

• vs UW not scheduled
• vs PU 2/10
• vs tOSU 2/12
• vs IL 2/27
• vs MSU 3/1

Due to the postponements Michigan is 0-0 with four to play.  They also have an upset win at Indiana and an upset home loss to Minnesota.  

What does the group think about those two?  

My thoughts:
Rutgers:  I think we should wait because it will work itself out soon.  They are in tier-2 basically because of their win over Purdue but they have vs MSU and vs tOSU coming up within a little over a week so lets see what happens.  If they lose both they obviously drop to tier-3.  If they win both they obviously stay in tier-2.  If they go 1-1 we can argue about it then.  

Michigan:  I'm inclined to wait just because they've been so wildly up and down.  Looking at their two upsets perhaps the oddest thing is that neither was particularly close.  They trailed the Gophers almost the entire second half and lost by 10 at home.  That doesn't look anything like a tier-2 team.  However, in Bloomington they led the Hoosiers almost the entire game and won by 18.  That doesn't just look like a tier-2 team, it looks like a tier-1 team, probably the best in the league.  

[medinabuckeye1]

FWIW:
If we did upgrade Michigan to tier-2 from tier-3 the impact would be to improve Michigan's projected finish by four games from 7-13 to 11-9 by flipping projected losses to PU, tOSU, MSU, and IL to wins and dropping each of those team's projected final record by a game to:

• 14-6 for Purdue
• 14-6 for MSU
• 13-6 for tOSU
• 13-7 for IL

The league title would then project to be a three-way tie between PU, MSU, and UW at 14-6 with tOSU 1/2 game behind and IL one game back.  Meanwhile Michigan would move into a projected three-way tie for 6th/7th/8th with RU and IU at 11-9.  

If we did downgrade Rutgers to tier-3 from tier-2 the impact would be to drop Rutgers' projected finish by four games to 7-13 from 11-9 by flipping projected home wins over tOSU, MSU, IL, and UW to losses and improving each of those teams' projected final record by a game to:

• 16-4 for MSU
• 15-4 for tOSU
• 15-5 for IL
• 15-5 for UW

The league title would then project to be won outright by MSU at 16-4 with tOSU 1/2 game back at 15-4 and PU/IL/UW one game back.  

Doing both would obviously improve M's projection to 11-9 and drop Rutgers' projection to 7-13.  It would net out for MSU, tOSU, and IL while dropping PU a game and improving UW a game.  Then the top of the standings would project to be:

• 15-5 Michigan State, Wisconsin (Wisconsin wins the tie)
• 14-5 Ohio State
• 14-6 Purdue, Illinois (Purdue wins the tie so Illinois has to play the #5 vs 12/13 game on Thursday)

[847badgerfan]

I think it's wise to hold on M and R for another week.

[ELA]

Well, that became a very stressful night very quickly.  PGs sucked, and all the bigs were in foul trouble.  Fortunately Maryland waited a little over a half to play any offense.  But you think a 15 point lead, even on the road, against a team that scored 27 points in 34 minutes, is safe

[ELA]

Michigan down 7 at the half, at home, to Nebraska.  Opens the half with a 20-3 run to go up 10.  Nebraska counters with a 19-3 run to go back up 6

[ELA]

https://twitter.com/DarkoStateNews/status/1487565651485114374?t=R1RAVk5xFfDF7I6-BdIAIg&s=19

[bayareabadger]

Well, that became a very stressful night very quickly.  PGs sucked, and all the bigs were in foul trouble.  Fortunately Maryland waited a little over a half to play any offense.  But you think a 15 point lead, even on the road, against a team that scored 27 points in 34 minutes, is safe

Still sore about their play in Madison

[ELA]

Still sore about their play in Madison

Hoggard has had his moments.  Was great against Michigan. The offense runs better with him.  He's just too careless, and is a liability on defense. Walker hasn't looked right yet in Big Ten play.  Tonight was a real problem for him.  It's almost like the more teams sag off him, the more scared he is to shoot, and he was definitely his worst defensive game of the year.  Way overcommitted on doubling the post, and have up at least 3 wide open threes off it.

I've felt all along that way more needs to run through Hall.  Hopefully she convinced the coaches of that tonight.  The fact that the winning play was drawn up for him is a positive sign.

[847badgerfan]

Terrible shooting for UW last night, and a poor defensive effort.

[SFBadger96]

If they had shot even 30% from 3, it would have been a much different game. But 3 for 24 (or whatever it was) is going to make for a tough night against a good team with a big man that the Badgers don't really have an answer for. The answer is to hit your open 3s, which they didn't do.

Winning on the road in conference and against good teams is hard. Not a great effort, but not all that surprising. As surprising as this team has been, it's no Kentucky 2015. 

[bayareabadger]

Terrible shooting for UW last night, and a poor defensive effort.

Yeah. Illinois is a damn bear when Kofi is going, but they felt a bit light on scramble/grit. 

Then again, hit a few shots, you’re in OK position. Tough Johnny Davis game.