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Topic: Misfits Thread

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8050 on: September 02, 2020, 12:20:20 PM »
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Biden's margins in these states is often less than Hillary had at this time.  The figures are slight obviously and state polling can be rather dubious at times.

Anyone who claims no one thinks Trump COULD win the PV is frankly out of it.

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8051 on: September 02, 2020, 12:24:08 PM »
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/2020_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Biden's margins in these states is often less than Hillary had at this time.  The figures are slight obviously and state polling can be rather dubious at times.

Anyone who claims no one thinks Trump COULD win the PV is frankly out of it.
If you have to bet your house on whether Trump wins or loses the popular vote, which way you going?

Cincydawg

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8052 on: September 02, 2020, 12:26:40 PM »
Look, you clearly don't understand the simple term "one chance in five".  So, I'm not going to try and explain it to you any more.

Your are entitled to your idiotic opinions, and I'm entitled to ignore them as what they are, idiotic.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8053 on: September 02, 2020, 12:29:37 PM »
If you have to bet your house on whether Trump wins or loses the popular vote, which way you going?
I'm making my financial and business plans with the idea that Joe wins in November.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8054 on: September 02, 2020, 12:33:18 PM »
Trying to figure out who predicts something will happen when the odds are 1 in 5 that it actually happens. Die hards and idiots, mostly.
this aint vegas

when someone quotes any odds concerning this election they are full of bird poop cause they either dont know or are trying to fool the voter
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8055 on: September 02, 2020, 12:34:09 PM »
I'm making my financial and business plans with the idea that Joe wins in November.
then you are going to be surprised
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8056 on: September 02, 2020, 12:34:28 PM »
Look, you clearly don't understand the simple term "one chance in five".  So, I'm not going to try and explain it to you any more.

Your are entitled to your idiotic opinions, and I'm entitled to ignore them as what they are, idiotic.
The problem is that you don't understand that 1 in 5 for Trump means 4 in 5 for Biden, so you conflate them into a meaningless idea that of course Trump CAN win the popular vote.  Trump CAN win the popular vote even if the probability is 99.9 against him.  We are talking about what people expect to happen - and you clearly don't expect Trump to win the popular vote.  Instead of just saying so, you give idiotic talks about how no one understands probability so you can insult people.  Waste of time.

SFBadger96

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8057 on: September 02, 2020, 12:34:49 PM »
Frankly, it warms my heart that you two aren't Trump supporters. Badge, I agree that Trump is no conservative. The reason I had that misimpression of you is yesterday you said that Trump saved Kenosha (as opposed to the National Guard the governor ordered after the vigilante shooting). While you may not be a Trump supporter, that sentiment shocks me. In my view (back to the Oatmeal), Trump caused Kenosha (not the police shooting, but the violence that followed it), first by his complete lack of empathy, and second by his tacit--and now explicit--support for vigilante "justice." And comparing a single, outspoken member of Congress (from a very safe seat, mind you) to the President as far as impact on the nation's mood seems like a big stretch. That's how my backfire effect brain processes your comments on this subject.

I am--unabashedly--liberal. That impacts my worldview, undoubtedly. I'm also a realist who understands something about how our constitutional republic is supposed to work, which means I tend to back centrists...left-leaning centrists. To be fair, more than centrists, I back people who I think are effective at governing within our constitutional system (with a left-leaning perspective). One of the saving graces of the Trump presidency (in my opinion) is how incompetent he and his adherents are. Thank goodness. But my big fear is how effectively he's turned us even more on each other, and how no matter how crazy the things he and his lieutenants say, they become part of his followers beliefs shortly thereafter--even when they are clearly projections.

A recent example, it is a matter of public record that Kellyanne Conway said, on Fox News, "The more chaos and anarchy and vandalism and violence reigns, the better it is for the very clear choice on who's best on public safety and law and order." No debate, no opinion, one of the President's closest advisors said this on TV. Clearly she feels that more chaos, etc., benefits Trump's reelection campaign. Within days (less, I think), the Trump echo machine was saying the opposite: that the Democrats want more chaos because they think it benefits them. That is quite a turn--and a classic projection.

The point isn't whom the chaos benefits, the reason either side wants to say the other side benefits from the chaos is because all the politicos know that blaming the other side for supporting violence is a way to cut into the other side's support. So the Trump supporters (I don't want to call them Republicans, though he has rallied Republican support better than other actual Republicans) say Biden wants this because they think that the undecided voter in Wisconsin that Badge knows will hear that and think: violence bad + Biden likes violence = Biden bad. So they say it, and Trump supporters believe it, despite it being a trusted Trump advisor who said chaos benefits Trump, not the other way around.

Recapping: Trump top lieutenant says chaos is good for Trump. Almost instantly, Trump supporters say that it is Biden that wants chaos. Trump supporters believe that: Biden wants violence. This kind of thing is bizarre, and consistent.

Back to the polls for a moment. One of the most incredible things in the Trump presidency is the lack of movement in polling regarding Trump's approval rating. His range is about 38-43% approval NO MATTER WHAT. For all the good and bad, he stays in that range (within margins of error). It's made me believe what Trump said--again a matter of public record, not opinion:

"I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK? It's, like, incredible."

It is incredible. And very, very sad.

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8058 on: September 02, 2020, 12:35:47 PM »
this aint vegas

when someone quotes any odds concerning this election they are full of bird poop cause they either dont know or are trying to fool the voter
Predicting the future is an exercise into the haphazard, but I think 538 does a pretty good job of making educated guesses.

longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8059 on: September 02, 2020, 12:39:02 PM »
Predicting the future is an exercise into the haphazard, but I think 538 does a pretty good job of making educated guesses.
except the 2016 election they were way off just like most other pollsters


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

longhorn320

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8061 on: September 02, 2020, 12:43:40 PM »
sometimes folks just dont want to believe history but its happening again

Trump will win by an even bigger margin then in 2016
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

SFBadger96

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8062 on: September 02, 2020, 12:45:21 PM »
Right--but you see the difference between, "I got it wrong so the whole exercise is pointless," and "I got it wrong, so I'm looking at the reasons why and trying to fix my model to address it." Polling that points to an outcome within a margin of error, isn't incorrect polling because the result fell within the margin of error. To the contrary, the polling was accurate--it was the extrapolation from the polling that was wrong.

And there FiveThirtyEight has been very clear this time around: the numbers are better for Biden, but don't rule out Trump. That's much different from saying the polling is all a false narrative.

MaximumSam

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Re: 2020 Offseason Stream of Unconciousness
« Reply #8063 on: September 02, 2020, 12:47:24 PM »
except the 2016 election they were way off just like most other pollsters


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
I mean yes, they were wrong, though Nate Silver said at the time he was having a difficult time making a prediction, and eventually landed on roughly a 1/3 chance for a Trump win.  Clearly the polling in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania was off - of course, the pollsters know that and theoretically have been trying to improve it. 

 

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