Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

https://www.google.com/amp/s/rubbingtherock.com/2019/07/10/clemson-football-espn-fpi-predicts-tigers-game-game-results/amp/

Before the season FPI had Clemson with a win probability of 85 percent, a few ticks better than 538 has Biden's chances of winning the popular vote.

Roughly similar to the chance South Carolina would beat Clemson last year. Don't recall too many picks for the Cocks last year

You didn't say before the season, when the oddsmakers had USC with a larger chance.  Before the game, they had a much smaller chance as befitting the results of the previous games.

At any rate, Trump clearly has a nonzero chance of winning the popular vote.  Whoever says he doesn't is engaging in wishful and bizarre thinking.

People fundamentally misunderstand statistics if they think that a 70% chance means something will happen. It means it is expected to happen seven of ten times, but every time it doesn't happen (approximately three of ten times) is also an expected outcome.

FiveThirtyEight understands statistics. They also do a good job of trying to understand the variables. While they didn't expect a Trump win in 2016, they did identify variables that would lead to it: late-breaking swing voters going for the outsider, and dissatisfaction generally hurting the "insider." Those same things are less likely to help Trump this time.

This whole thread--and the Trump supporters on it--make me shake my head, even those friends of mine whom I know personally. I'm stunned that you don't see him as I do, and I'm terrified by what that means--already--for our country. I hope CD is right that it may not make much difference, but I already see a huge difference.

The confidence I see here from Trump supporters fits my narrative of Trump supporters almost too well. You have confidence despite the massive 2018 beating the Trump-led Republicans took, and the polls, because they are similar to the numbers between Clinton and Trump in 2016. But they encapsulate much different dynamics, including the lack of apathy that we saw in 2016, and an opponent who isn't nearly as unpopular as Clinton was (/is). Voters are motivated this year, and yes, that includes Trump voters. We won't see 200,000 fewer votes in Wisconsin than we saw in 2012--even with COVID-19. 

Yet you are convinced. To borrow from our dear leader, it is what it is. Nothing this partisan can say will change it--nor your views about Trump's role in Kenosha and Portland, nor anything else. To Bwar's point:
 
https://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe

Trying to figure out who predicts something will happen when the odds are 1 in 5 that it actually happens. Die hards and idiots, mostly.

So you've been to the Bookie Joint?

People fundamentally misunderstand statistics if they think that a 70% chance means something will happen. It means it is expected to happen seven of ten times, but every time it doesn't happen (approximately three of ten times) is also an expected outcome.

FiveThirtyEight understands statistics. They also do a good job of trying to understand the variables. While they didn't expect a Trump win in 2016, they did identify variables that would lead to it: late-breaking swing voters going for the outsider, and dissatisfaction generally hurting the "insider." Those same things are less likely to help Trump this time.

This whole thread--and the Trump supporters on it--make me shake my head, even those friends of mine whom I know personally. I'm stunned that you don't see him as I do, and I'm terrified by what that means--already--for our country. I hope CD is right that it may not make much difference, but I already see a huge difference.

The confidence I see here from Trump supporters fits my narrative of Trump supporters almost too well. You have confidence despite the massive 2018 beating the Trump-led Republicans took, and the polls, because they are similar to the numbers between Clinton and Trump in 2016. But they encapsulate much different dynamics, including the lack of apathy that we saw in 2016, and an opponent who isn't nearly as unpopular as Clinton was (/is). Voters are motivated this year, and yes, that includes Trump voters. We won't see 200,000 fewer votes in Wisconsin than we saw in 2012--even with COVID-19.

Yet you are convinced. To borrow from our dear leader, it is what it is. Nothing this partisan can say will change it--nor your views about Trump's role in Kenosha and Portland, nor anything else. To Bwar's point:
 
https://theoatmeal.com/comics/believe

I don't think that includes as many as you think. Yes, I'm a conservative, but I do not support Donald Trump. He's insufferable, and he's not a conservative.

My friend, you are painting with a brush too broad.

One chance in five is exactly that, and a long long way from zero chances.  It's obviously an estimate and a projection, but the 538 site does this for a living, so to claim Trump has NO chance of winning the PV is idiotic twaddle.

If you flip a coin twice and it is heads both times, you have satisfied one chance in four.

I remember being in Phoenix the day before the 2003 Fiesta Bowl and talking to a gambler at a bar who talked about taking Miami's fans money because they were giving him like 30 points. I imagine he had a pretty good payday, and he was a Cane fan.

Ya when Texas beat USC in'06 I made 300 but was itching to put more of it on the money line.Sometimes ya gotta play those hunches,still not a bad little payday.I've mentioned I found the old CFN forum after searching websites for any gambling insight when they had their staff pix..One saturday on College ball I put 300 one one game and hedged 3 $50.00 picks.Won the 3 $50 wagers and lost the 300 - go 3 of 4 and still take it on the chin