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why not?

no SEC games that weekend?

They already had GameDay in Ames last year.  They won't have it twice in a row. 

It's more likely that GameDay goes to Minneapolis for the Floyd of Rosedale game.

I thoroughly expect a big fat L in Columbus, but Iowa owes Penn State a beating.  Too many near-misses lately.

#21 Iowa State Cyclones

#5 in Big XII

If you asked most Iowa State fans what they’d like to be ranked this year, they’d probably say “one spot above Iowa.”  I guess wish granted, although it’s purely a coincidence.  Any talk of Matt Campbell using Iowa State as a purely stepping stone position seems to have diminished after both Florida State and Michigan State gauged his interest this offseason, and were rebuked.  At one point late in the season, Iowa State looked like easily the best 7-4 team in the country, with the four losses coming by a combined 11 points, with 3 of those losses coming against ranked teams, and 5 of their 6 most recent victories being by double digits.  But the Cyclones finished with a 10 point loss at Kansas State, and a blowout loss to Notre Dame in the Camping World Bowl.  Was that just one off Saturday on the road on Senior Day, followed by a “whatever” result, giving a “whatever” effort in a “whatever” bowl; or a sign of getting exposed?  I’ll bet on their track record, of it being the former.  The offense is absolutely loaded at the skill positions, led by quarterback Brock Purdy, who should be 1-2 in some order with Texas’ Sam Ehlinger for preseason All-Big XII quarterback, and may be positioning himself to leave early next year and be a first round pick in the NFL Draft.  But the even bigger talent is running back Breece Hall, the true freshman from Kansas, who turned down helmet offers from the likes of Michigan, Nebraska and Tennessee to join the Cyclones.  He played only sparingly until being handed the #1 role in mid-October against West Virginia  And once given it, he took it over, running for 700 yards over his first six games and 9 touchdowns.  He seemed to wear down from the heavy workload over the final two games, which just so happened to coincide with their worst two games of the year.  The issue is he’ll have to maneuver his way behind a nearly completely rebuilt offensive line, with only one returning starter.  That front did an excellent job a year ago, surrendering the fewest sacks in the conference.  At least they have not one, but two all-Big XII tight ends returning.  I’m guessing they will both be on the field a good deal of the time, particularly due to the depth questions at receiver.  Iowa State loses their top two receivers from last year, but does bring back their big play man in Tarique Milton, who had 722 on an obscene 20.6 yards per reception.  Only CeeDee Lamb and JaMarr Chase, who were the consensus top two receivers in the nation, also averaged that many yards with 35 or more receptions.  The difference is that Milton had just 35, while Lamb had 62 and Chase had 84.  Milton needs to contribute more than 2.9 receptions per game if this passing game is going to work.  The defensive strength could be the back, where North Carolina transfer Greg Ross, who got rave reviews from camp, joins Greg Eisworth to form one of the better safety pairs in the country.  Like I addressed with TCU (who has a much better pair) I’m not sure you can necessarily build a defense around even an elite pair of safeties.  The strength of the front seven looks to be the pass rush, assuming JaQuan Bailey returns to pre-injury form to play opposite Eyioma Uwaurike.  The linebackers do a great job joining in that pass rush, contributing to the Big XII’s third best sack rate, but struggle in coverage, and were lacking in sound tackles.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Brock Purdy, Junior
RB	Breece Hall, Sophomore
TE	Charlie Kolar, Junior
	.
DE	Eyioma Uwazurike, Senior
LB	Mike Rose, Junior
S	Greg Eisworth, Senior

With the West Coast on lockdown, the PAC (and MWC) may never play football this year, and could even start to collapse.

Then we will have the Power 4, with the AZ schools, Utah and Colorado headed to the Big 12 (14). The PAC-8 ceases to exist.

With the West Coast on lockdown, the PAC (and MWC) may never play football this year, and could even start to collapse.

Then we will have the Power 4, with the AZ schools, Utah and Colorado headed to the Big 12 (14). The PAC-8 ceases to exist.

Even if the conference collapses, enough of those schools care enough, they'll rebuild. USC, Washington, Oregon, probably WSU and OSU won't give that up. Cal/Stanford/UCLA I could see going either way. 

#20 Central Florida Knights

#2 in American

In terms of top end talent UCF is probably still the cream of the AAC crop.  But all does not seem entirely right in Orlando, the farther Scott Frost is in the rear view mirror.  The Knights’ four year run of recruiting classes in the top 2 in the conference ended with a thud, with the fifth ranked class in 2020.  Fourteen players entered the transfer portal, including a number of highly rated recruits that Frost brought in.  In a lot of ways this sort of reminds me of Larry Coker riding out Butch Davis’ talent at Miami.  Josh Heupel, like Coker, isn’t so over his head to drive the program into the ground, but he’s just going to let the car roll until its momentum finally stops.  That means I think they still have enough talent to compete for a league title this year, but I am WAY less confident in their prospects in 2021 and beyond.  Remember, this program went from 12-1 with a Fiesta Bowl win in 2013, to 0-12 in 2015 in the very recent history, so their status is far from assured.  They also need to stay healthy, because their depth isn’t where Memphis or Cincinnati’s is.  That top end talent is better than its given credit for, simply because the Knights are “only” 10-4 in their last 14, going back to the Fiesta Bowl loss to LSU, after winning 25 consecutive prior.  But UCF lost three games, on the road, by a combined 7 points, and actually had their highest SP+ rating of the past three seasons.  Yes, higher than their national championship* season.  The biggest question with the offense is what to do at quarterback.  Freshman Dillon Gabriel wrestled the starting job away from Notre Dame transfer Brandon Wimbush, and was very effective, fourth in the AAC in QBR.  But he isn’t the transcendent player that McKenzie Milton is...or was…?  Milton is going to give it a go after a terrible leg injury in 2018 that caused him to miss all of 2019, and for all we know may still be career ending.  But how Heupel plays this might be tricky.  100% of Milton is better than Gabriel, probably even 90% is.  But is 80%  75%?  And at what point do you tell a kid who means as much to this program as Milton that, while you seem healthy, you simply aren’t our best option anymore.  The offensive line was lousy in run blocking last year, so the threat of a Milton/Otis Anderson backfield would help ease that concern some.  The defense was outstanding last year, led by a secondary that should be every bit as good, if not better, this year, with all four starters likely to receive all-conference honors.  They allowed just 5.9 ypa last year, on 52.4% opponents completion percentage, both numbers being top ten nationally.  If they can get any sort of pass rush, they should be an absolute lockdown unit.  The problem is they were a middling team at getting after the quarterback last year, with a 6.9% sack rate, and lost Brendon Hayes, easily their best pass rusher, who had more than twice as many sacks as anyone else on the team.  Their leading returner in sacks is an interior lineman.  Somebody from that linebacking group has to step up and fill that void, most likely Eric Mitchell.  He’s a fifth year program guy who is very solid, but not the type of player I would trust to be a premier pass rusher.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Otis Anderson, Senior
WR	Tre Nixon, Senior
G	Cole Schneider, Junior
	.
DT	Kenny Turner, Senior
CB	Aaron Robinson, Senior
S	Richie Grant, Senior