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#29 Utah Utes

#3 in Pac 12

The Utes entered the Pac 12 Championship Game positioned to maybe get into the College Football Playoff with a win, sitting at #5 in the nation, 11-1 overall, on an eight game winning streak, where they were winning by an average of 29 ppg, with only one game (a 33-28 win at Washington) being closer than 18 points.  Utah went out and lost their final two games, being that conference title game followed by a lackluster Alamo Bowl against Texas, by a combined 50 points.  They had spent all year leaning too hard on their defense, which had only twice all year given up more than 17 points, and it finally broke, surrendering 75 points over those two games.  So while dropping a team that was one game away from the Playoff entirely out of the top 25 seems harsh, that defense needs a near total reboot, to replace 7 senior starters, and two underclassmen who left early.  The Utes lost 73% of their defensive production, most in the nation.  Fortunately they were one of the best defenses in the nation a year ago.  Few teams return only two starters on a side of a ball...yet still return two all-conference honorees; but few have 10 of 11 starters earn all-conference honors.  The run defense, which was tops in the nation a year ago, should continue to be strong, led by linebacker Devin Lloyd, who led the team in tackles, with 91, and tackles for loss, with 11, as a sophomore last year.  Mike Tafua is the best pass rusher on the line, but he’ll have to figure out how to operate without sack king Bradlee Anae drawing double and triple teams across from him, plus a pair of new interior linemen.  A new name to watch in the secondary is freshman cornerback Clark Phillips III from Lakewood, California.  Phillips is the #50 overall prospect, and #5 cornerback, who was committed to Ohio State, until his lead recruiter, Jeff Hafley, left to take the Boston College head coaching job.  The beneficiary is the Utes, who made Phillips, the highest rated recruit in school history, the crown jewel of their highest rated class in school history.  Considering the four highest rated players in the class all play on defense, I would bet on seeing them getting a chance to contribute immediately.  While the offense only lost four starters, its four starters who saw the ball a lot, including starting quarterback, starting running back, and best receiver.  Utah would probably looking for new wideouts to emerge either way, after tight end Brant Kuithe led the team in receptions and receiving yards, and tailback Zack Moss was second.  Tyler Huntley was insanely accurate, his 73.1% completion rate was second nationally to Joe Burrow; and his 10.3 ypa was third, behind Burrow and Jalen Hurts.  But Utah only threw the ball 22.7 times per game, ahead of only four triple option teams, Buffalo, Kentucky and Wyoming.  With an unknown running back situation, and a less mobile South Carolina’s Jake Bentley transferring in, that has to change.  Bentley, and whoever emerges at running back should get to benefit from at least what might be the best offensive line in the conference, even if it lacks the top end NFL star power of Oregon’s.  So while dropping Utah entirely out of the top 25 seems harsh, it’s actually a sign of respect that I’m not dropping them farther, considering they are a newly minted Power Five team, who lost more production than anyone in the FBS.

	KEY PLAYERS
TE	Brant Kuithe, Junior
T	Simi Moala, Sophomore
G	Nick Ford, Junior
	.
DE	Mike Taufa, Junior
DE	Maxs Tupai, Senior
LB	Devin Lloyd, Junior

Which Red Dawn taught us is not an easy task

#28 Kentucky Wildcats

#7 in SEC

While on paper, 2019 might not have measured up to a 2018 season that was Kentucky’s best since 1977, is a lot of ways it was a testament to the program Mark Stoops has built that he lost arguably the best offensive and defensive players in the SEC a year before (at Ken-freaking-tucky), suffered a season needing injury to his quarterback, that forced him to move running back Lynn Bowden into a full time wildcat slot, and still went 8-5, with a bowl win over Virginia Tech.  The Wildcat offense will look less, well Wildcat, this year, but the task of replacing Lynn Bowden is no small one.  He was never in the Heisman discussion, but if college football had a true MVP award, it would be hard to make a stronger case for anyone else.  That is how, despite returning 9 starters, Kentucky manages to lose 32% of their offensive production.  The graduation of Logan Stenberg, one of the first guards off the board does also hurt the interior of the line, where he, along with center Drake Jackson formed one of the 20 best run blocking lines in the nation.  Assuming Terry Wilson is healthy, he should slide back into the starting quarterback role that he lost due to injury.  He was not cleared to participate in spring practice though, so how healthy he’ll be is still a legitimate question.  The only potential challenger is Auburn transfer Joey Gatewood, who would need an NCAA waiver to play.  It does not seem as though that is even being sought, so it may hinge on the NCAA rule change passing.  Sawyer Smith’s struggles are what led to the Bowden move, so I doubt Stoops wants to go back to him.  What either Wilson or Gatewood should help showcase is what is actually a deep stable of running backs.  Aside from Bowden, who ran for 1,485 yards on nearly 8 ypc; the Wildcats had Asim Rose with 826 yards on 5.5 ypc, Kavosiay Smoke (best name in college football) with 630 yards on 6.1 ypc; and Chris Rodriguez with 533 yards on 7.5 ypc.  All three return, after finishing 2nd in the FBS at 6.0 ypc, and that was without any passing threat to keep defenses honest, running the ball 66.7% of the time, third most in the FBS of non-triple option teams.  Kentucky’s defense fell from 4th to 9th in the SEC in ypp allowed, which is not surprising considering the NFL talent they lost the year prior.  I expect a bounceback this year, particularly in the back eight, led by a group of linebackers whose depth can challenge any in the SEC, including Alabama.  The potential future star is in the secondary though in safety Yusuf Corker, who went from being in a position battle entering the fall, to being a first time starter, to leading the team in tackles.  Corker was a high school cornerback, who has grown into the safety position, but still possesses elite cover skills.  The difference between being a good SEC team, and an SEC contender though is in the trenches, and Kentucky underwent a total overhaul on their defensive line.  Stoops knew it, and he solved the problem...although probably not for 2020.  Three of the Wildcats’ four highest rated recruits are on the line, led by defensive tackle Justin Rogers, the program’s highest rated recruit since 2006, but you don’t want to rely on three 18 year olds to hold up against Florida or Georgia.  And they’ll find out quickly, with a trip to Gainesville in Week 2, where they won in 2018, but previously hadn’t since 1979.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Terry Wilson, Senior
RB	Asim Rose, Senior
C	Drake Jackson, Senior
	.
LB	Jamar Watson, Senior
S	Yusuf Corker, Junior
P	Max Duffy, Senior

UK looks to be a testament to the benefits of great coaching.  I think you have them too high, they look like an 8-5 kind of team to me, again.

Their defense could make them a tough out.  They get Miss State at home and Auburn on the road from the West,  Louisville seems unlikely to challenge them.  Then there are the two East powers and Tennessee.  They could of course get upset by someone else, just as they might upset UF/UGA/Auburn.  They get UGA at home late when the weather could be bitterly cold.

Of course, if they win a minor bowl game, they could be 9-4 and get ranked.

8-5 last year got them to #35 in SP+, #36 in Massey composite.

But yeah, looking at their schedule, 7-5 looks right to me.  They have six home games that they have no excuse to lose (EMU, Kent State, SC, EIU, Vandy, Mississippi State).

But the other six are road games at Florida, Auburn, Missouri, Tennessee and Louisville, plus Georgia at home.

So they likely need to win a pair of those to get to just 8-4.

I think UNC can make some noise, per their station.

They play Auburn Week 2 (maybe) in Atlanta, and could snag an upset.  Their other OOC opponents are pastries.  They get VT at home, and nobody else on the schedule is scary.  This is a 10-2/11-1 kind of team with a break I think.

So a G5 school will be the top team in a state with four P5 teams.

Can anyone say with certainty what a tarheel is?

Is it related to a zip or an ichabod?

They officially are the Rams, like Alabama is the Red Elephants.  Supposedly, there was some Rev War battle on the Tar River and the NC contingent "dug their heels" into the river and wouldn't retreat, or something like that, Stonewall, but Tar River.