| #58 Marshall Thundering Herd |
| #2 in Conference USA |
After back to back division titles, including a Conference USA championship in 2014, Marshall had a down year in 2016, but has bounced back, only to be the bridesmaid. With Lane Kiffin out of the way, is the division title back for the taking? The Thundering Herd was the preseason favorite last year, and seemed well positioned, in control of their own destiny with just two weeks left, thanks to a road win at Florida Atlantic, and also with a near upset road win over Boise State to their name. But they surrendered back to back fourth quarter touchdowns to Charlotte, including a 25 yard touchdown pass on 4th and 10 with 48 seconds left, to cost themselves the division title. They return plenty of talent again, as part of a three horse race in the Conference USA East Division title race, the winner of which will be the prohibitive favorite in the Conference USA Championship Game. The running game should be strong, led by Brenden Knox, the conference’s leading rusher, and the only player to average over 100 rushing ypg, running behind five returning starting offensive linemen. The problem is that it took Knox 20.8 carries per game to get there, most in Conference USA, and fifth most nationally. They have to spread those carries out a little bit more. Backup Sheldon Evans also returns, averaging more yards per carry than Knox, but for some reason getting about a quarter of the carries. Tim Cramsey wanted a run focused offense, and Marshall ran the ball over 58% of the time last year, after being almost exactly 50/50 in 2018, in part because of the up and down play of quarterback Isaiah Green. Green threw for 218 yards per game, and was third in the conference in yards per completion. But he also only completed 56% of his passes, had the fourth highest interception rate, and was 11th among 13 qualified starting quarterbacks in passer rating, and 10th in QBR. However, if Marshall wins their first conference title in six years, it will be because the added pieces to a solid core made this the best defense in the conference. The Thundering Herd were looking top heavy on the defensive side of the ball, with All-Conference players returning at all three levels, but hurting a little bit in terms of depth, and pieces to insert around them. Doc Holliday, not wanting to waste all of those returning offensive starters, and his big defensive stars, turned to quick fixes. He brought in four JUCO transfers, all of whom might start immediately, and FCS transfer Brian Cavicante, from Delaware State, who sat out last year after registering 17 tackles for loss in 2018, twice as many as any Thundering Herd defender tallied last year. They also could get a boost if Derrek Pitts, a West Virginia transfer safety, who only played in parts of 3 games last year, is finally healthy. Pitts is an elite athlete, who was at one time committed to Penn State, and had offers from the likes of Clemson and Oklahoma, before landing in Morgantown, but simply hasn’t been able to put it together in college. If the JUCO and FCS transfers pan out, and Pitts is healthy, to compliment a strong but shallow core, this could be a top 40 SP+ defense.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| QB | Isaiah Green, Junior |
| RB | Brenden Knox, Junior |
| G | Cain Madden, Senior |
| . |
| DE | Darius Hodge, Junior |
| LB | Tavante Beckett, Senior |
| S | Nazeeh Johnson, Senior |
| #57 Western Kentucky Hilltoppers |
| #1 in Conference USA |
So did Tyson Helton do one of the great under the radar coaching jobs last year, or was Mike Sanford just that unprepared for a head coaching job? Once Willie Taggert built up the FBS transition portion of his alma mater, the Hilltoppers went through three coaches in four years, seemingly without missing a beat. That was until Mike Sanford came in and drove it off a cliff in just two years. It takes a lot for a mid major like Western Kentucky to fire a head coach after just two seasons, but that’s what the administration decided they had to do with Sanford, who was hired at just 34...and fired at 36. Helton turned things right back around. They opened with a home loss to Central Arkansas, and two weeks later lost to Louisville. From there out, he won 8 of 10, with the two losses being to Marshall and Florida Atlantic, the two best teams in Conference USA. All in all a 6 win turnaround in his first year. If he can build on that and win a conference title in his second year, he will certainly be in line for a Power Five job. The offense appears to be just a quarterback away from being really good. Granted, that’s a pretty big piece to try to fill. Arkansas transfer Ty Storey was fantastic last year, completing 69.9% of his passes, highest in the Group of 5, sixth highest in the FBS. Offensive coordinator Bryan Ellis built the offense around Storey’s accuracy, with a lot of elements of the West Coast offense, a lot of dink and dunk. Storey averaged just 7.4 ypa, lowest of any quarterback in the top 25 in completion percentage, and his 141.7 passer rating was the lowest within the top 20. Steven Duncan is first in line to replace him, and the offense looked much, much different when he was in last year. He started three games, and played in nine in 2018, prior to Storey arriving, so it’s not an insignificant sample size for a backup quarterback. But he had roughly 11% lower a completion rate, but threw for more yards per game, but at a yard more per completion. Losing leading receiver Lucky Jackson hurts, because while Jahcour Pearson led the team in receiving touchdowns, and had 804 receiving yards himself, he’s a pure slot guy, and they need someone to stretch the field. While Joshua Simon was fantastic as a freshman, you typically don’t want a tight end to lead your team in yards per reception. Gaej Walker ran for 1,208 yards last year, second most in the conference, but by god, get the man some help. No other non-quarterback on the roster had more than 9 carries. When you go from Taggert to Petrino to Brohm, your bread and butter is offense, but I have the Hilltoppers top in Conference USA due to their defense, which should be outstanding. Bill Connelly projects them as the #22 SP+ defense in 2020, second highest in the Group of Five, behind only San Diego State. That’s not surprising considering their had the third best scoring defense a year ago, and have the 6th highest returning defensive production in the FBS. The Hilltoppers won first down, and were an elite third down defense. They were 15th nationally in standard down success rate, and were second nationally in third and long success rate. That group returns eight starters, adds a former 4* recruit from Tennessee in Will Ignont, and gets Eli Brown back from injury.
| KEY PLAYERS |
| RB | Gaej Walker, Senior |
| WR | Jahcour Pearson, Senior |
| TE | Joshua Simon, Sophomore |
| . |
| DE | DeAngelo Malone, Senior |
| LB | Kyle Bailey, Senior |
| S | Antwon Kincaide, Senior |
