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#77 South Carolina Gamecocks

#12 in SEC

Saving Will Muschamp’s job may fall squarely in the lap of Mike Bobo, who is taking the offensive coordinator helm, after being fired by Colorado State, as head coach.  Prior to leaving for Fort Collins, Bobo had spent his entire football life at Georgia, since enrolling as a freshman in 1993, aside from one season as quarterbacks coach at Jacksonville State in 2000.  The later years of Bobo’s tenure as Georgia’s offensive coordinator was marked by developing a lot of high level NFL Draft talent, like Matthew Stafford, Aaron Murray, A.J. Green, and Knowshon Moreno, but a largely underwhelming product.  Specifically, Bobo is being brought in to groom true sophomore quarterback Ryan Hilinski.  Hilinski was thrown into the fire right away last year, when Jake Bentley suffered a season ending injury in the opening loss to North Carolina.  However, Bentley had another year of eligibility, and still chose to transfer to Utah, rather than return to compete with Hilinski.  Muschamp isn’t exactly in a position to play for the future, so that does bode positive for where Hilinski is at in his development already.  Bryan McClendon certainly did not adjust his scheme last year for Hilinski, throwing the ball 38.8 times per game, most in the SEC.  When that results in closing the season by averaging 8 ppg over your final three games, scoring one offensive touchdown, it’s not surprising that he was demoted back to position coach.  He then opted to take the same job with the Pittsburgh Steelers instead.  It seems unlikely Hilinski will be throwing the ball any less this year with the departure of the Gamecocks’ top three rushers, and the pass-happy offense Bobo ran at Colorado State, where he retained play calling duties.  Bobo did bring Colorado State quarterback Collin Hill with him, but there’s no reason to think he’ll be the starter.  The receiver position is nearly as depleted as the running backs, returning Shi Smith, and not much else.  Dakereon Joyner, who got the bulk of the second team snaps at quarterback a year ago, was officially listed as a receiver on the spring roster, after Muschamp hinted at such in his offseason press conferences.  He has the athleticism to be an immediate contributor to an unproven group.  The one positive is that the Gamecocks have an experienced offensive line, which played fairly well a year ago.  The defense will depend on how well the Gamecocks can replace three starters on the defensive line, including All-SEC players in Javon Kinlaw and D.J. Wonnum.  While Kinlaw got all the honors, it’s the returning Aaron Sterling who benefitted from all the attention he didn’t get, and was the more productive of the ends.  We’ll see how that changes in 2020 with him on the receiving end of all of those double teams that went to his teammate last year.  They’ll also get a boost from the return of Keir Thomas who was injured at the start of last season, and though he was cleared to return in late October, made the decision to take a redshirt instead, and return for his fifth season.  Even if HIlinski takes a step forward, the dearth of skill position talent around him, and a schedule that includes trips to both Death Valleys in November, a bowl bid seems unlikely.  In that event, it’s tough to see Muschamp getting a sixth year after back to back bowl-less seasons.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Ryan Hilinski, Sophomore
WR	Shi Smith, Senior
T	Sadarius Hutcherson, Senior
	.
DE	Aaron Sterling, Senior
LB	Ernest Jones, Junior
CB	Israel Mukuamu, Junior

Arkansas and Nevada have each lost both of their teams, joining New Mexico as two-team states that have already been flushed. 


"How many teams from each G5 Conference cracked the ELA Top 75?" you ask? 


7 American
4 Mountain West
3 CUSA
3 Sunbelt
2 Mac
1 G5 Independent 

So 20 total. 

#74 Colorado Buffaloes

#10 in Pac 12

Coaches have come and gone since the glory days of Colorado football in the late 80s through the 90s, but the one consistent is that the team goes as the defense goes.  The offense has not ranked in the top 40 of the SP+ in 17 years, which is nearly impossible to do for a power conference team.  The Buffaloes lone winning season since 2005, came in 2016, on the backs of a top 25 defense.  Last year, they were outside the top 100 in SP+.  If the defensive youth movement from 2019 pays off, that could improve dramatically.  Colorado returns 9 defensive starters, over 60% of their production, and yet still are projected to be just #97 in the defensive SP+.  Linebacker Nate Landman (who is perfectly named for a state rich in mineral production) is a stud, but there are issues all around him.  The secondary allowed over 8.5 ypa, roughly 1.5 ypa more than the prior season, and 15th most nationally.  The defensive line was decent at getting after the quarterback, particularly Mustafa Johnson, but was weak up the middle, and did nearly nothing against the run.  Antonio Alfano has a lot of obstacles to clear, and can’t seem to get out of his own way, but could be a game changer.  The sophomore, who was the highest rated member of Alabama’s 2019 recruiting class, he apparently just stopped showing up, transferred to Colorado, had his waiver denied, and then got suspended indefinitely for a violation of team rules.  The chances that (1) he appeal is granted; (2) his suspension is lifted; and (3) he stays out of his own way long enough to not make another mistake, seems slim.  But Colorado desperately needs him.  I think it’s fairly telling that none of the assistants that Mel Tucker took with him to Michigan State were on that side of the ball.  Massive improvement is needed because the offense could be really ugly, particularly the passing game.  Fortunately the one thing Colorado does have is a deep stable of running backs.  While none of them really stand out, they do have a strong rotation.  Alex Fontenot is the workhorse, who averaged 4.72 ypc, tallying 874 yards.  Jaren Mangham is a guy behind him, who I really like to break out.  I was surprised he wasn’t more productive last year, running for 441 yards, but on just 4.12 ypc.  They also add true freshman Ashaad Clayon from New Orleans, the #17 RB in the nation, #171 overall, and easily the Buffaloes highest rated recruit.  He’s got a 6’0”, 200 pound frame that looks ready to contribute from day one.  It’s tough to say just how new offensive coordinator Darrin Chiaverini (promoted from receivers coach) will call plays, something he hasn’t done outside of the JUCO level.  But considering the options he has at tailback, compared to a passing game starting from scratch, may force his hand.  Steven Montez took every meaningful snap for the Buffaloes, going back to 2016, leaving Bolder second in school history in completions, attempts, and yards.  For all of the other inconsistencies in the program, have basically had just two quarterbacks over the past seven years.  With presumed incumbent Blake Stenstrom entering the transfer portal, and third stringer Sam Noyer graduating, the spot looks even dicier.  There is junior Tyler Lytle, who has attempted 5 career passes, and true freshman Brendon Lewis, who was Colorado’s highest rated early enrolee.  He is an elite athlete, but as far as a passer goes, doesn’t look like a Power Five guy starter yet.  Losing spring ball hurts him, but maybe adding a running threat under center helps, considering who they have to throw to.  Both starting receivers graduated, including Laviska Shenault, who had 673 yards, despite missing two games.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Alex Fontenot, Senior
WR	K.D. Nixon, Senior
TE	Brady Russell, Senior
	.
DE	Mustafa Johnson, Senior
LB	Nate Landman, Senior
S	Derrion Rakestraw, Senior

#73 NC State Wolfpack

#12 in ACC

I certainly didn’t expect Mack Brown to pass Dave Doeren in the in-state ACC pecking order, and certainly not in his first season, but here we are following a disastrous 2019, that saw the Wolfpack close the season with six consecutive losses, their longest losing streak since 2013, and going 1-8 on the season against Power Five teams.  The problems started with the offense, and specifically the passing game, or lack thereof.  NC State rotated through three different starting quarterbacks, each playing in at least half of the team’s games, none of which played effectively.  Matt McKay, who started the first five games of the season, and was actually the most effective of the three, although he never got the job back fully, transferred to FCS Montana State.  That leaves sophomore Devin Leary, who got the most reps, and is the presumed starter, and Florida State transfer Bailey Hockman, who was miserable in the 6 games he played in last year.  I would expect either Ty Evans, who redshirted last year, and/or incoming freshman Ben Finley, younger brother of former starter Ryan Finley, to pass Hockman, if not both.  The three starters last year combined to complete just 52% of their passes for 5.9 ypa, and the lowest passing efficiency in the ACC.  Yes, lower than a Georgia Tech team trying to run a pro style offense with triple option personnel.  Granted they weren’t aided by a truly awful group of receivers, such that I wouldn’t only not be surprised to see true freshman Porter Rooks come right in and immediately be the best of the group, I would expect it.  Not to leave the running backs out, Ricky Person Jr., who looked great in 2018 as a freshman, seemed primed for a breakout sophomore campaign, and instead averaged 3.8 ypc, and wound up finishing the season third on the depth chart.  He had a lingering ankle injury, so the optimist could say that if he’s fully healthy, and regains his 2018 form, and is your third best running back, that’s a really strong group.  But overall, offensively, things were so bad, that after promoting Desmond Kitchings and George McDonald to replace Eliah Drinkwitz as offensive coordinator for 2019, Doeren already replaced them after one year with Tim Beck, whose star had fallen since his time in Columbus.  Beck had been demoted from offensive coordinator to quarterbacks coach in Austin at the end of last season.  The defense has plenty of talent, it just has to stay healthy.  They have three likely future NFL draftees on the line, and yet averaged a fairly middling 2.9 sacks per game.  The hope is that the new hire of Charley Wiles, after spending the past 24 seasons as Virginia Tech’s defensive line coach, is supposed to change that.  The “additions” in the secondary comes not in the form of new blood, but renewed blood, after having three starters suffer season ending injuries last year.  None of the three were expected back for spring ball, so while the chance to develop more depth behind them is lost, they didn’t miss an opportunity to work back into game shape.  The injury depleted group last year collapsed, allowing opponents to complete over 64% of their passes, second worst in the ACC, and tallying just 4 interceptions, tied for the least in the country.  The upside is that both the starting kicker and punter return after All-ACC sophomore campaigns.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Devin Leary, Sophomore
TE	Cary Angeline, Senior
K	Christopher Dunn, Junior
	.
LB	Louis Acceus, Senior
CB	Chris Ingram, Senior
P	Treton Gill, Junior

IMO, Tulsa coach Phillip Montgomery is a piece of crap.  He rode into town on Art Briles' coattails, telling everyone that Briles was like a second father to him.  Then, after the stench in Waco got too powerful to ignore, and Briles ended up being canned, Montgomery went mum on the subject.  He will not answer questions, and the Tulsa media rarely dares to ask anything tough.

Montgomery inherited some young talent that hadn't bloomed in time to save Bill Blankenship's job, but after going 16-10 his first two years has faded to 9-27 over the next three.  He's been there 5 years, but he had a worse record after 4 years than Blankenship did in his 4 years, and last year's 4-8 campaign just made his record even worse.  How he still has a job is a mystery to me.  Maybe he's got some pictures of the TU president on vacation in Tijuana.

MSU having them as the opener last year felt dangerous, and I couldn't believe how bad they were.  Opposite of the year prior where I thought Utah State was trash, and in retrospect they were one of the best mid majors in 2018

IMO, Tulsa coach Phillip Montgomery is a piece of crap.  He rode into town on Art Briles' coattails, telling everyone that Briles was like a second father to him.  Then, after the stench in Waco got too powerful to ignore, and Briles ended up being canned, Montgomery went mum on the subject.  He will not answer questions, and the Tulsa media rarely dares to ask anything tough.

Montgomery inherited some young talent that hadn't bloomed in time to save Bill Blankenship's job, 

Well he may not have known and Briles was prolly very pretentious.Unless he was around Briles long enough to know better.Ya know it's hard to wrap your head around some of the lecherous behavior of these sanctimonious jerks.Seems guys named Montgomery are a-holes,I know the British General if you want call him that was

#72 Illinois Fighting Illini

#12 in Big Ten

While the bar was pretty low, Illinois flew past it in Lovie Smith’s fourth season.  Is that setting the Illini up for a big 2020?  Maybe.  After initially toying with giving the pros a shot, or hanging it up due to injury, Brandon Peters decided to return for his fifth year, for better or worse.  While the team seemed to play better with him in, he struggled with his accuracy, completing just 55.3% of his passes, worst among any full time starter in the Big Ten.  It really felt like the Smiths, Lovie and Rod, wanted to give redshirt freshman Matt Robinson or true freshman Isaiah Williams every opportunity to pass him.  On one hand I get it, if you aren’t competing this year, go with the 18 year old over the 22 year old; and Peters was always kind of a weird fit for Smith’s offense.  But it was just so obvious that any run game was neutralized by defenses’ lack of respect for Robinson or Williams’ passing ability.  And they needed that passing ability, because the Illini running attack, which absolutely killed teams in 2018, and returned all three players from that monster three headed backfield, faltered in a big way.  Illinois ranked 6th nationally, averaging 6.1 ypc in 2018, and plummeted to 3.8 ypc last year, #91 nationally, and now lost their top two backs, returning just Ra’Von Bonner, and his 3.5 ypc.  You would expect that with an offensive line returning 4 starters, including three All-Big Ten players, that the holes should be there.  But it feels (as is often the case), that the voting was based more on reputation than performance.  The line got good push on short yardage situations, ranking 5th in power success rate, but in general was awful.  They were #104 in standard down line yards, and #117 in standard down sack rate.  The fact that in spite of how good they were in short yardage situations, they ranked 12th in the Big Ten in third down conversions, tells you how rarely they did the work needed on first and second downs to even be in those positions.  And the defense, particularly the front seven looks to still be rough, graduating four seniors, including probably the best player nobody knew about, linebacker Dele Harding, who led the Big Ten (second nationally), with 153 tackles (11.8 per game).  Then, in addition, Oluwole Betiku Jr., who finished third in the conference in sacks, left early for the NFL.  So a front that gave up nearly 200 yards per game on the ground a year ago, and had the third lowest sack rate, loses three players, including a sure fire NFL Draft pick, and behind him, the quarterback of the defense, who also happened to be the most productive defender in the conference.  Any success will be based on the secondary, which itself was pretty bad, aside from creating interceptions, getting better.  They allowed a Big Ten worst yards per catch, and if the front seven is as bad as I expect it to be, teams may just not even bother passing against them.  The offense has the potential to be very good, if that line performs like the Big Ten media thought it did last year, but it might just wind up looking like a slightly better version of 2018, which, looking at that schedule, may actually get them to 6-6.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Josh Imatorbhebhe, Senior
T	AleX Palczewski, Senior
C	Doug Kramer, Senior
	.
LB	Jake Hansen, Senior
CB	Nate Hobbs, Senior
S	Sydney Brown, Junior