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#84 Syracuse Orange

#13 in ACC

I am wrong in these write ups more than I am right, but even among my years of documented incorrect opinions, my Syracuse 2019 take may have been my worst.  I had them as a borderline top 10 team, with a one game season, at home against Clemson.  I picked them to win that one game, go 13-0, and play in the College Football Playoff.  Instead the Orange didn’t even make it to that September 14 game undefeated, getting smoked the week before, 63-20 at Maryland, and then lost 41-6 to Clemson anyway.  At least after losing their first six Power 5 games, they closed with winning two of three to at least get a little momentum going into 2020.  The way the schedule breaks, the Orange have a chance to keep that momentum rolling early in the year, with the first half including home games against Colgate, Liberty and Louisville; plus road games at Boston College, Rutgers and Western Michigan.  Going 5-1 in that stretch, before a trip to Death Valley, is certainly possible, as is going 2-4.  That would be disastrous heading into a second half with road games at Clemson, Pitt and Wake Forest, and a home game against Florida State.  The defense was bad, but the defense was bad in 2019 as well.  The problem was I put way too much faith in the Dino Babers offense simply being plug and play.  Maybe it is, a little bit from a skill position standpoint.  But oh boy, that offensive line made the entire thing collapse.  They surrendered a sack rate of 12.0%, in an offense designed to get the ball out quickly.  In obvious passing downs, that’s one thing, but even on standard downs, they were 3.6% in 2018.  They also fell from a top 25 run blocking team (top 10 in stuff rate), to a bottom third run blocking team.  Moe Neal was able to at least make something out of it, but nobody else, including Oklahoma transfer Abdul Adams, or quarterback Tommy DeVito, did, combining for just 3.0 ypc.  With Neal graduated, the running back situation looks bleak.  The receiver situation is not a ton better, with Sean Riley graduating, and Michigan State transfer Trishton Jackson going pro a year early.  They do get Taj Harris back, and he seemed to really start to come on late, with 13 receptions coming in Syracuse’s final two games; after just 24 all season prior.  And that offensive line, which was useless last year, could bounce right back.  Left tackle Evan Adams graduated; but the other four starters last year were comprised of two freshmen and two sophomores, including one true freshman at right tackle, in Matthew Bergeron.  Those guys return, and they add Florida transfer Chris Bleich to the mix.  The issues surrounding campus shutdowns this spring hurts Syracuse more than most, after they hired three new coordinators.  Three?  Yeah, they hired a new defensive coordinator, who converted to a 3-3-5 system, and then left for Mississippi State.  They had a late in game flip to Tony White, more because he learned the 3-3-5 under Rocky Long at San Diego State than because he was necessarily their first choice.  At least on offense there is a little more familiarity, hiring away McNeese State head coach Sterlin Gilbert, who had been Babers’ offensive coordinator before, at Eastern Illinois and then Bowling Green from 2012-2014.  Defensive coordinator change or not, the defensive situation looks to go from bad to worse.  Aside from Andre Cisco, there is no certainty.  You take one of the 25 worst defenses in FBS based upon ypp allowed, and give them the 10th lowest returning production, that’s the result.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Tommy DeVito, Junior
WR	Taj Harris, Junior
K	Andre Szmyt, Junior
	.
DT	Josh Black, Senior
S	Andre Cisco, Junior
S	Eric Coley, Junior

Or North Carolina (in that case, it's a Sun Belt team).

...and just like that Arizona is down to just the Sun Devils. 

Saturday, day late

#82 UAB Blazers

#5 in Conference USA

Everything in the UAB rebuild was set up for 2018, and the Blazers pulled it off, with a conference title.  But 2019 was supposed to be a reset year.  As wrong as I was about Syracuse, I did not drop UAB nearly as much as others, still picking them to win the conference, while the media picked them fourth place...in their own division.  The Blazers used a perfect home record to return to the conference championship game, and while Florida Atlantic laid them flat, the season was certainly a success, when most didn’t expect them to compete for a division title.  Their New Orleans Bowl performance, a 14 point loss to a top 20 Appalachian State team, where UAB held a second half lead, was also fairly impressive.  The defense looks to be absolutely stacked.  They return 8 starters, including 6 of their 8 All-Conference USA players from a year ago on that side of the ball, with that group including either a pair of linemen, or a pair of linebackers, and 3/4 of the secondary.  I say either linemen or linebacker because Jordan Smith’s flexibility allows defensive coordinator David Reeves to move him back at forth to match the defense, and the two-time Broyles Award nominee has been very adept at finding the perfect way to use him, leading the team in sacks and tackles for loss, 3rd and 5th in the conference respectively.  The defense last year was no chopped liver, leading the conference in total defense and passing defense (in ypp), second in scoring defense and rushing defense.  It’s the elite secondary that allows Reeves to play around so much up front.  The Blazers allowed just 6.1 ypa on 51% completions, easily best in the conference, and 13th and 3rd best in the nation respectively.  I could have taken any of them as the key player, and while statistically he might not be the obvious pick, but senior cornerback T.D. Marshall is the leader on that back end.  If there are any small nits to pick, its that they, as an entire defense, only generated 7 interceptions, with only one player, safety Will Boler (who had 2) nabbing more than one.  The offense is still a work in progress though.  The pieces are there for an elite passing game, with the conference’s best pair of tackles returning, but from a line that severely underperformed last year, ranking in the bottom half of the FBS across the board by Football Outsider metrics.  And they’ve got a pair of all-conference receivers, averaged 8.3 ypa, second best in the conference, yet threw the ball just 24.5 times per game, barely ahead of Charlotte for least in the conference.  Now maybe some of that had to do with the 20 interceptions they threw, being a staggering 6.29% of their attempts.  That was easily the worst in the nation, almost a full percent higher than Rutgers.  Tyler Johnson III likely remains the starter, but it he should be a bigger threat with his running than he was last year.  The Blazers cycled through three running backs a year ago, none of whom were particularly effective, but a lot of that had to do with how terrible the interior of the offensive line was.

	KEY PLAYERS
WR	Austin Watkins Jr., Senior
WR	Myron Mitchell, Senior
T	Colby Raglund, Senior
	.
DE	Jordan Smith, Junior
LB	Kristopher Moll, Senior
CB	T.D. Marshall, Senior

#81 Southern Miss Golden Eagles

#4 in Conference USA

While Southern Miss maybe pulled the trigger on Ellis Johnson too quickly, after one 0-12 season, I was a little surprised to see Jay Hopson get a fifth season, the way things are now, after four thoroughly mediocre seasons.  He’s been bowl eligible every season, but never lost fewer than 5 games, and never finished higher than third in the division.  While receiver Quez Watkins’ decision to forego his senior years certainly hurts, the Golden Eagles’ passing attack should continue to be lethal, particularly if Jaylond Adams, who might be the best returner in the nation, can step up as a receiver as well, because even without Watkins, Tim Jones is probably going to be a preseason all-conference player.  Jones was a 1st team All-American receiver in high school by some publications, but his small frame scared some bigger players away, including Alabama, who recruited him early, but never offered.  The talent has always been there though.  Plus they have senior Jack Abraham running the show, after leading the conference in passing, and finishing second in efficiency.  His only issue is interceptions, which he threw 15 of.  That was third most in the country, but most guys who throw interceptions at that rate, don’t keep their jobs.  The defense has a chance to take a major step forward, with plenty of returning individual talent.  But they had all of that individual talent, and it simply didn’t mesh, allowing 26.2 ppg, squarely in the middle of the conference.  The Golden Eagles, however, were much closer to being a very good defense, but simply couldn’t translate it into scoring defense.  They allowed 10 plays of 50 yards or more, and had a secondary that despite allowing a completion percentage below 60%, surrendered conference worst 8.4 ypa and 27 passing touchdowns.  That equates to a fourth worst in the FBS rate of 14.7 ypc.  Oddly that’s also only the second worst mark in the state (wait your turn Bulldogs).  You cut down on the big plays, and you flip the turnover numbers, after finishing worst in the conference, 8th worst nationally, in 2019, and you can easily see the makings of a division winner.  There are going to be multiple preseason all-conference players at every level, the defensive talent is that good.  That may seem like a low bar for a school that won a third of the conference titles in the first fifteen years of its existence (1996-2011), particularly is a far worse version of the conference, but Southern Miss hasn’t even won a division title in five years, going on nine since the last of those five conference titles.

	KEY PLAYERS
QB	Jack Abraham, Senior
WR	Tim Jones, Junior
G	Arvin Fletcher, Senior
	.
DE	Jacques Turner, Senior
LB	Swayze Bozeman, Senior
S	Ky

So Bama, Michigan, S Carolina and Mississippi are each down to just their 2 P5 teams, while Utah is down to just the Utes and BYU.

I'd predict that the order of those four states losing their top two teams will be: Mississippi, Utah, Michigan, Bama and S Carolina.

The Utes should probably be ranked ahead of the Wolverines after winning the last three games in that series against three different HCs, but the Wolverines will most likely get a helmet bump that noses them ahead of the Utes.

One or both of the MS teams might also benefit from an SEC bump that could maybe elevate them up above one or both of the Utes/Wolverines. Or not.

Bama isn't getting beat out by anyone in that particular clown car. At least not in the ELA preseason rankings. But they are the only one with a prayer of getting ranked ahead of Clemson.

#79 Tulane Green Wave

#8 in American

The trajectory of Tulane football under Willie Fritz was obvious, and after a share of a division title in 2018, 2019 was supposed to be the big payoff, with an outside shot at their first conference title since that Tommy Bowden-Shaun King 1998 team.  Instead, they stumbled to a 3-5 conference record, losing five of their final six regular season games, four games out of first in the division, and just a game out of last.  This is the school’s first consecutive bowl births since 1979 and 1980, their first consecutive winning seasons in over two decades, and Willie Fritz is now the first coach in school history to coach in two bowl games.  But considering what the trajectory appeared to be, and what was on the horizon for 2020, 2019 certainly feels like a big miss at a place where opportunities to win conference titles truly are once a generation things.  And what exactly is on the horizon?  A senior laden offense, that was the fourth most efficient in the American, and the second most effective running attack, behind only Navy, is now fitting in new pieces nearly across the board at the skill positions.  Graduated are starting quarterback Justin McMillan (who was also the team’s leading rusher), starting running back Darius Bradwell, and both starting receivers.  The running back situation is probably in fine shape, as Corey Dauphine and Amare Jones are both back, combining for 133 carries a year ago, with over 7.1 ypc; far better than Bradwell’s averages on 111 carries.  They also have the benefit of running behind a line that returns three starters from a consensus top 15 run blocking line by any metric.  Jones is also a real threat in the passing game, finishing third on the team with 34 receptions and 367 yards.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fritz split Jones out a little bit more this year, just to get both of them on the field together as much as possible, and because aside from tight end Tyrick James, the pass catching options are unknowns.  They are hoping Oklahoma grad transfer Mykel Jones can add a boost.  Jones showed a lot of promise in his freshman and sophomore seasons in Norman, but saw his role reduced to basically nothing over the past two seasons.  To sum it up, Jones had 6 receptions in his first game as a freshman, and 4 in his junior and senior seasons combined.  The race to replace Justin McMillan under center appears to be wide open.  Fifth year senior Keon Howard is the one player with experience, but it was just four games of backup duty a year ago.  The challenge may come from incoming true freshman Michael Pratt from Deerfield Beach, Florida, part of Tulane’s highest rated class under Fritz.  Speaking of incoming true freshmen, New Orleans home town defensive end Angelo Anderson, a consensus top 500 recruit, spurned Tennessee, Colorado, Arkansas and Kansas State to become the Green Waves’ second highest rated signee of the 247 era.  He should immediately bolster a pass rush that generated just 1.6 sacks per game, third worst in the conference.  If he can step right in and contribute, opposite rush end Patrick Johnson, there’s a good chance the Wave go from one of the worst pass rushes in the conference to one of the best.  The secondary looks to be solid, so a big step forward from the front seven could really help bouey the regression from the offense.

	KEY PLAYERS
RB	Corey Dauphine, Senior
TE	Tyrick James, Junior
G	Corey Dublin, Senior
	.
DE	Patrick Johnson, Senior
S	Chase Kuerschen, Senior
S	Larry Brooks, Junior

Ohio State has a decent shot at starting out Numero Uno in some polls. 

I'd really like to believe that,not sure they'll take the East.
PS - ELA thanx with all this time these will be read twice.Just curious why do you want Houston to tank