So... That sucked.
Why did Purdue lose to Nevada, and what does it mean for the rest of the year?
Well, first things first, five turnovers to zero is a difficult margin to overcome against any team. Those turnovers kept Nevada in the game as we approached the 4th quarter, when Purdue's youth and limited depth was gassed.
But it's more than that. A lot more.
- Purdue couldn't run the ball. They finished the game with 96 rushing yards and a 3.3 ypc average. That, against a MWC team? Not good. Not good at all. Zander Horvath looked good enough, but he's not a speed back, and the line wasn't opening big enough holes between the tackles. In the 2nd half, when Nevada realized Purdue couldn't run the ball, it allowed them to keep extra men in coverage and shut down the passing game. All our worries about the offensive line are completely confirmed.
- Elijah Sindelar isn't the guy. I was watching in the second half, wondering "where is Moore", and could see Moore getting frustrated. But I watched multiple times where Sindelar threw to a covered first option while Moore was running free, and the only passes in the second half to Moore looked like plays where he was designed to get the ball (and was sniffed out by the defense). Sindelar missed seeing Moore when wide open, and threw to him when covered when he might have had better options. He can make great throws, but if he can't read his progressions and make the right decisions, he's not the guy. And his two interceptions are no good.
- The defense was gassed. This is partly IMHO a matter of youth, and hopefully was a matter of the late kickoff time and the elevation, which won't happen again if Purdue plays in its own time zone. It was also hurt by Purdue's short offensive series in the 2nd half and their punt return miscues keeping them on the field. But by the 4th quarter, they had nothing left. If they're getting that gassed against Nevada, what's going to happen when they face a team with B1G-level athletes?
This team is in trouble. Our future opponents will be able to see that we don't have the OL to have a running game, and they can sit back and defend the passing game with enough attention to make it hard for all those talented receivers to be open. And if Sindelar can't get beyond his first progression anyway, they can just read his eyes and anticipate where he's going with the ball as soon as it's snapped.
The rest of the teams on Purdue's schedule won't need a +5 turnover margin to exploit what they'll see on film from last night. They won't have the talent disparity, and many (including TCU) will have better talent than Purdue.
After last night, I struggle to see bowl eligibility. This loss is worse than the Eastern Michigan loss last year. I think this team has a shot at beating Vandy at home, but not TCU, and then will need to go 5-4 or better in the B1G to make a bowl.
Unless this team grows up FAST on the OL and unless Sindelar either gets better or gets benched, it's going to be a long year.
