CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: betarhoalphadelta on January 03, 2019, 02:21:42 PM
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Purdue heads into 2019 with currently the 25th-ranked recruiting class in the nation, and 5th in the B1G.
Interestingly, according to Rivals, 4 of the top 10 ALL-TIME* recruits are either in this class or Rondale Moore. Currently highlighted by DE George Karlaftis, who comes in at 2nd on that list.
We're currently waiting on David Bell's announcement at the All-American Bowl on Saturday. Reportedly he has told people that he's already picked his school, and 247 has his crystal ball as 90% Purdue. If he signs, he would slot in as the 5th-best all-time. Granted, that would still leave only 4 of the top 10 Purdue recruits in this class, as safety Marvin Grant would then slip from 10th to 11th.
* "All-time", of course, appears to only go back to ~2001 or so, as I can't find anyone prior to that listed for several schools on the "all-time" list.
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I feel like I'm in the minority here, but I get a bad vibe that Bell added Ohio State to his list of finalists.
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That said, Brohm did blue shirt Wahlberg and grey shirt Triplett. I doubt he does that unless he knows Bell is coming.
In other news, we have an extra opening now that Mendez is leaving the program. Not good. Year 3 is already looking suspect because of the young and inexperienced OL.
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That said, Brohm did blue shirt Wahlberg and grey shirt Triplett. I doubt he does that unless he knows Bell is coming.
In other news, we have an extra opening now that Mendez is leaving the program. Not good. Year 3 is already looking suspect because of the young and inexperienced OL.
I'm just glad that announcement day, for well or ill, is upon us tomorrow. At least we'll know.
I saw [and commented] on the Mendez thing on H&R (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2018/12/31/18162853/purdue-football-michael-mendez-departs). I suspect that this was just him reaching the end of the road, realizing that he already had his degree in hand, wasn't realistically going to play on Sundays, and decided he might as well not subject himself to another year of getting the crap kicked out of him and start his "real" life.
But something about it stuck with me, and I'm not sure what to make of it. I thought it was odd that the announcement that he was leaving the program came from his mother. I sincerely hope that he's okay. We've seen a number of CFB players dealing with depression and other psychological issues, and the repeated head collisions certainly don't help any of that. I hope for his sake that none of that is a concern.
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I did find it odd that his mother was speaking for him.
I do hope all is well, he was a solid player and seems like a good person.
From a football perspective, it really sucks. He played a lot this year, and was pretty much a gauranteed starter next year. Losing an upperclassmen with that experience really hurts. Purdue is desperately thin on OL with lots of underclassmen. This could really be a hurt piece.
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It's official: David Bell is a Boilermaker!
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Double official. Apparently he signed during the early signing period, but he and Purdue kept it under wraps until today.
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Purdue is going to have a killer WR core next year. Good luck defending that. Only option is to beat the line and get to the QB.
Lol, Bell is the 2nd Purdue recruit to publicly punk Ohio State with his commitment.
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https://twitter.com/barstoolpu/status/1081619435209875456?s=12
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So to put this class in perspective...
Purdue, with Bell, moved up one spot to be ranked 24th for the 2019 class. That may possibly drop as some schools get late commitments and Purdue is full. They're 5th in the B1G, and likely to stay there as #6 [MSU] and #7 [UW] don't really have much if any open offers listed as "warm" on 247 with higher ratings than Purdue's average player rating of 86.66.
Where does this rank historically?
Purdue has 5 incoming 4-star recruits. George Karlaftis is right on the edge of 5* (247 rates him 5* and #11 nationally, but his composite is only 4*). Based on the 247 "all time" number, I think that's the most they've ever had in a single year. I see a few years where I count about 3 4* recruits, but never 5.
- Looking at the "all-time" [i.e. since 2001], 3 of the incoming 2019 recruits would be in Purdue's top 10.
- A 4th, Rondale Moore from the 2018 class, is top-10.
- 4 of the 2019 recruits are top-11.
- 6 of the 2019 recruits are top-25, including Mershawn Rice who slips in as a 3* at #25.
- Putting 2018 and 2019 classes together, 13 of Purdue's best 50 recruits since 2001 come from those two classes.
- 24 of Purdue's best 100 recruits have come from 2018/19 classes.
Jeff Brohm has excited fans, but after two years sits at a relatively pedestrian 13-13 record. One might ask why Purdue would pony up $6M per year, a top-10 salary nationally, to keep a 13-12 [at the time] around?
Well, it's because they see what's coming in. After Hazell left the cupboard bare, 13-13 in his first two years was actually a pretty good record. And if he can do that with Hazell-era talent, we think what he can do with the talent coming in will be worth it.
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The nice part is that the recruiting is an unexpected bonus.
Brohm was known for being an X's and O's guy. His offense at WKU was around the top of the NCAA in many categories. Purdue hired him because of this, and the fact that he is a QB guru, which fit perfectly into the "Cradle of QB's" identity.
His recruiting, on the other hand, was always middle of the pack in CUSA. People were concerned we might get a good coach who couldn't find the talent to get over the hill in the B1G.
His magic with QB's has certainly been verified. Anyone can take a look at how much Blough improved.
His X's and O's have made bowl teams out of bottom feeders.
His recruiting is like finding that lost present under the X-Mas tree that just might be the best of the haul.
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What kind of record are you anticipating for Purdue in 2019?
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Purdue 2019 Schedule
- @ Nevada
- vs Vandy
- vs TCU
- BYE
- vs Minnesota
- @ PSU
- vs Maryland
- @ Iowa
- vs Illinois
- vs Nebraska
- @ Northwestern
- BYE
- @ Wisconsin
- vs Indiana
I see Purdue finishing OOC at least 2-1, with upside of 3-0. TCU doesn't exactly look world-beating, and we get them at home.
In conference, I see us going minimum 3-2 at home. Illinois and Indiana should be definite wins, and I think we get at least 1 of the remainder. Maryland breaking in a new coach helps. We'll have revenge in mind against Minnesota. Nebraska is still a work-in-progress, but I think year 2 of Frost should be a big step up from 2018. 4-1 is a realistic possibility.
Away, I'm not sure. I could see us going anywhere between 1-3 and 3-1 there. And "1-3" doesn't mean I've identified a lock win, just that I think we can steal a minimum of one road game there. But I see a high likelihood that PSU and Wisconsin will definitely be favored, Iowa is looking like they might have issues due to graduation/NFL early entrants but is always tough, and Northwestern is usually rounding into form come November.
I think Purdue should have expectations in that sort of 7-5, 8-4 range. Given the incoming talent, it being year 3 of Brohm, and a more favorable schedule than 2018, I think 6-6 would be a disappointment. And I think given the still-present talent disparity on the Purdue roster to the rest of the conference, 9-3 would be really surprising upside. Just based on talent, I think there are games in there that we *could* win that we won't due to talent.
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I see your points. 7-8 wins are probable. 9 is possible.
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Purdue 2019 Schedule
- @ Nevada - W
- vs Vandy - W
- vs TCU - ?
- BYE
- vs Minnesota - W
- @ PSU - L
- vs Maryland - ?
- @ Iowa - L
- vs Illinois - W
- vs Nebraska - ?
- @ Northwestern - L
- BYE
- @ Wisconsin - L
- vs Indiana - W
I see 5 wins, 4 losses, and 3 toss ups.
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I'd swap @NU from loss to toss-up to make it 5-3-4.
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I might add Iowa to the list of toss-ups. We won @Iowa 2 years ago and vsIowa in 2018, so I think somehow the Brohm/Ferentz matchup might be a little in our favor despite the talent differential. And with Iowa losing so much to graduation or the draft, I'm not sure what their team will look like next year.
The flipside is that I'd probably drop Minnesota from the list of wins to toss-ups. They seemed to turn a lot around late in the season, and they've got 9 returning starters on offense and 8 on defense, while Purdue will be replacing our QB and have a lot of questions at OL, particularly 4 games into the season. Their problem [defense] seemed to be fixed with the firing of their DC, and if they can carry that improvement into 2019, they might be disruptive to our offense like they were this year.
That would be 4-2-6. If we split the toss-ups evenly, it's 7-5. If the toss-ups mirror our home/away split and we go 4-2 in the toss-ups, that's an 8-4 result.
As I said, I think that's a fair expectation for where we'll be. I do think there's more "upside" potential in there than downside, so I'd consider 8-4 or 9-3 more likely than 6-6 or 5-7.
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I had the same thoughts about Iowa and UMinn but kept them because of Kinnick and Fleck, respectively. Re: Fleck, I like his personality. I just don't know if I trust him to build a P5 winner yet. And even if I did, doing it in MSP is one of the hardest jobs of all. Maybe they turned a corner though versus UW. We'll see. If they can do it again in 2019, he'll be absolutely hailed. Big year for tone setting there and the potential for positive hyperbole (which is significant in recruiting).
Back to Purdue, 7-5 or 8-4 seems right, and if they catch TCU, it's the latter.
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bwarb, you thinking of going up to Reno for the Boilermakers home opener Vs Nevada? I did a game in Reno a few years ago, and with casinos somewhat within walking distance, Reno is an accommodating and inexpensive place for a college football game. Should be cheaper tickets than last year’s Bowl in the Bay Area. I recommend staying at the Silver Legacy.
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bwarb, you thinking of going up to Reno for the Boilermakers home opener Vs Nevada? I did a game in Reno a few years ago, and with casinos somewhat within walking distance, Reno is an accommodating and inexpensive place for a college football game. Should be cheaper tickets than last year’s Bowl in the Bay Area. I recommend staying at the Silver Legacy.
I was thinking about it. It's a holiday weekend, so I'll have that Monday off work. If it turns out to be a night game, I can leave early in the morning and drive it that Saturday.
But I'll be going to Chicago/Purdue/Indy two weeks later and plan to catch the TCU@Purdue game, so I may not make this one.
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Elijah Sindelar shut down for the rest of spring with a knee tweak...
https://www.hammerandrails.com/2019/3/30/18288596/purdue-football-elijah-sindelar-shut-down (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2019/3/30/18288596/purdue-football-elijah-sindelar-shut-down)
https://twitter.com/TomDienhart1/status/1112024553075683335
Sucks for him that he can't seem to catch a break. Should give some of the highly touted recruits/backups some run in spring ball, though.
Behind him we have:
- Nick Sipe (Rs So): 6'4" 215# 3* Pro-style out of SoCal. Been sitting patiently behind Blough and Sindelar for years now, but has the most time in the program/system. Somewhat of a holdover from Hazell, as he was originally being recruited by Hazell and stayed on for Brohm in the 2017 class.
- Jack Plummer (Rs Fr): 6'5" 220# 3* Pro-style out of AZ. Generally seen as one of the leaders for the job given that he is the first QB recruit Brohm truly went after, and recruited him hard. Was rated the 22nd QB nationally by 247 composite for 2018.
- Paul Piferi (Fr): 6'5" 210# 3* Pro-style (see a pattern here?) out of SoCal. 29th QB in the 2019 class. Probably too raw, but he's already enrolled and will be participating in spring ball, so he's not exactly out of the running.
Sindelar is a good QB, with a cannon arm, but he's had some issues with touch, accuracy, and decision-making through his career. I fully expect him (if healthy) to win the starting job in the fall, but I wouldn't call it an open and shut case that it's his, especially with sitting out the rest of spring.
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Elijah Sindelar granted 6th year by the NCAA. So he still has two years of eligibility remaining.
He has the size and arm strength that a good year could propel him into the NFL draft after 2019 regardless, and a bad year could allow one of the players behind him to catch up and overtake him for 2020.
But it's good to know that the option is open for a 2020 season if we need him and he's around.
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I'd swap @NU from loss to toss-up to make it 5-3-4.
I think I'd also swap @PSU from loss to toss-up. I know it's on the road, but I'm not favoring Purdue, just saying "maybe" while acknowledging Franklin appearing on a downswing ... and that was before the Nits flirted with 20-man** transfer portal offseason.
**(Does anyone have a real count? I think they are somewhere between 15 and 18 in the portal to date)
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Had a day sick in bed all last week. Spent it perusing the long Louisville board post venting over getting turned down by Brohm. Thread of over a hundred pages of the angriest posts I’ve seen in a while. Back to full health the next day.
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My analysis of B1G HFA relative to Purdue from @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) 's countdown thread:
Purdue: The Boilermakers have a schedule that is GREAT if they are struggling for bowl eligibility but TERRIBLE if they are good enough to be a CCG contender. Their four best opponents are on the road (PSU, IA, UW, NU) and their four worst opponents are at home (MN, UNL, IU, UMD, IL). That makes 5-4 feel like a safe projection and anything outside of 6-3 to 3-6 seem highly unlikely.
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Purdue closed scrimmage notes from Brohm: https://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/football/2019/08/10/purdue-football-scrimmage-recap-a-lot-room-improvement/1970417001/ (https://www.jconline.com/story/sports/college/purdue/football/2019/08/10/purdue-football-scrimmage-recap-a-lot-room-improvement/1970417001/)
Big concerns for the OL right now. This is one of the concerns I've had for years, because Hazell couldn't recruit nor develop OL. He was basically a QB-killer, because the line couldn't protect and the QB was constantly running for his life.
This hasn't been great since Brohm arrived, either. A lot of that has to do with the fact that OL is not an easy "instant impact" position, so he hasn't had a lot to work with. It's been unheralded upperclassmen and some JuCo. His own recruits are in their RS FR year. But one of Blough's best attributes at QB was his elusiveness and ability to throw on the run, and I'm not sure Elijah Sindelar is adept at that.
Bright spot has been Milton Wright at WR, who seems like he might be an instant impact guy. David Bell, who is another big talent at WR, has been hampered by injury so he hasn't been 100%. So I think Wright is getting more snaps in practice.
On defense, George Karlaftis looks like the real deal. However, right now Lorenzo Neal is still questionable for the opener at Nevada. We need Neal in there to swallow up blockers and take some attention away from GK.
Overall, defense looks to be ahead of the offense right now.
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When people ask "Why would you pay Brohm so much after he only went 13-13 over two years?"
Because look what he climbed out of...
https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1161458305807671302 (https://twitter.com/ESPN_BillC/status/1161458305807671302)
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RB Tario Fuller suffered a "significant injury" in the team's final scrimmage. Unconfirmed, but reportedly a broken jaw.
RB is one of the thinnest positions for the Boilers this year. Walk ons, injury plagued, and true freshmen. Not a good place to lose the presumed starter.
Horrible for Tario, of course. Kid looked legit as a frosh in Brohm's first season for about three weeks until injury. Spent most of 2018 on the bench behind Knox and Jones while reportedly not being fully 100%, but it looked like he was ready for prime time this year. Sad to see him lose the opportunity to own the role.
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Awful for Fuller. Kid has looked really good when 100%. Was really looking forward to seeing him play again.
I really like Horvath though. He's a 6-3 230 pound bruiser with good speed. More of a FB I suppose. Alstott type back. He was giving Fuller a run for the starting job all spring and summer.
RS Fresh Alfred Armour will certainly see the field now as well. Another punisher, 6-1 235. An off-season video shows him squat 600 pounds. Rondale had an impressive squat last year. Purdue does not skip leg day!
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27355502/meet-rondale-moore-purdue-record-breaking-history-making-phenom
That guy still running through my living room in my dreams lol.
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Posted at H&R (https://www.hammerandrails.com/2019/8/19/20812548/evaluating-purdues-talent-level), the 5-year average of Big Ten ranking for recruiting class, and average player ranking:
Class Rank
- OSU 1.4
- Mich 2.6
- PSU 2.6
- Neb 4.4
- MSU 5
- Wisc 6.8
- Mary 6.8
- Iowa 9.2
- Minn 10
- IN 10.2
- IL. 11.2
- NW 11.4
- Purdue 11.6
- Rutg. 11.8
Player Grade
- OSU 92.52
- Mich 89.68
- PSU 89.63
- Neb 87.42
- MSU 87.17
- Wisc 86.12
- Mary 85.71
- NW 85.01
- Iowa 84.71
- Minn 84.46
- IN 84.33
- IL 83.69
- Rutg 83.61
- Purdue 83.22
If you wonder why Purdue fans aren't thinking this is the true "breakout" year for Brohm, this is it.
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That 2015 class should have been more of a weight for Harbaugh. Michigan only got 4 useful juniors or seniors out of it (Higdon, Kinnel, Gentry, Runyan). That's the class where the best guys decommitted while Hoke was lame ducking and Harbaugh couldn't begin recruiting until January. Michigan finished fifth in the Big Ten. Otherwise they've averaged 2.0 in this period (finishing 1st once, 2nd thrice and 3rd once).
As for Purdue, yeah, that's brutal. The true freshman class is shimmery, though.
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That 2015 class should have been more of a weight for Harbaugh. Michigan only got 4 useful juniors or seniors out of it (Higdon, Kinnel, Gentry, Runyan). That's the class where the best guys decommitted while Hoke was lame ducking and Harbaugh couldn't begin recruiting until January. Michigan finished fifth in the Big Ten. Otherwise they've averaged 2.0 in this period (finishing 1st once, 2nd thrice and 3rd once).
As for Purdue, yeah, that's brutal. The true freshman class is shimmery, though.
I do think weighting should be done based on class. The problem with everyone loving Purdue's 2019 class is that they're freshmen. Football is a sport that you have to be EXCEPTIONAL to come in and produce as a true freshman.
So I'd like to see the average recruit weighting done to reduce the impact of true freshmen, and appropriately value upperclassmen.
For example:
- True frosh class: 10% of overall class weight
- 2nd year class (RS frosh / true Soph): 20% of overall class weight
- 3rd year class (RS Soph / true Jr): 25% of overall class weight
- 4th year class (RS jr / true Sr): 30% of overall class weight
- 5th year class: 15% of overall class weight
Reasoning:
- True frosh or only rarely able to contribute at a high level. Even of our strong 2018 WR class, Rondale was the only player who saw time. Amad Anderson, Kory Taylor, and Jordan Bonner were all "more talented" than guys like Wright and Mahongou as rated by the recruiting services, but they didn’t see the field.
- 5th year players should also be underweighted, for a couple reasons. First, anyone who didn’t redshirt is gone. Second, anyone who is left is not NFL material. Third, a number of the people left might be "journeymen" at best who are still around but non-contributors. You may have some stellar redshirt seniors here, but I think since you’re dealing with class rather than individual players, you need to discount the 5th year guys.
- Beyond that, you increasingly rate experience higher than inexperience, so there is an increase in weighting between 2nd through 4th years. 2nd is still 20% (1/5th of 5 classes) so it’s not "underweight", but you give extra weight to 3rd and 4th year classes at the expense of true frosh and 5th year guys.
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I think that's pretty good, though I might recommend a steeper peak. Something like 10-15-28-30-15. Sophomores often seem to disappoint for how surprised we are that they are still unready (enough to play, but not to star) and the players who are worldbeaters seem pretty evenly split to me between TrJr and TrSr.
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I think that's pretty good, though I might recommend a steeper peak. Something like 10-15-28-30-15. Sophomores often seem to disappoint for how surprised we are that they are still unready (enough to play, but not to star) and the players who are worldbeaters seem pretty evenly split to me between TrJr and TrSr.
Sure. It was an off-the-cuff weighting.
Obviously someone with a lot of time could compile recruiting rankings for higher-end FBS programs over a 15-year period, and correlate the weighting to the final AP polls, such that they could get a weighting that better approximates results.
I'm guessing neither of our weightings would be that far off the mark lol...
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https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27355502/meet-rondale-moore-purdue-record-breaking-history-making-phenom
That guy still running through my living room in my dreams lol.
I feel the same way about Devin Smith from the 2014 CCG. In fact, I think he just ran across my patio.
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It might be too laborious, but I'd be interested in seeing the version only counting players still there.
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So... That sucked.
Why did Purdue lose to Nevada, and what does it mean for the rest of the year?
Well, first things first, five turnovers to zero is a difficult margin to overcome against any team. Those turnovers kept Nevada in the game as we approached the 4th quarter, when Purdue's youth and limited depth was gassed.
But it's more than that. A lot more.
- Purdue couldn't run the ball. They finished the game with 96 rushing yards and a 3.3 ypc average. That, against a MWC team? Not good. Not good at all. Zander Horvath looked good enough, but he's not a speed back, and the line wasn't opening big enough holes between the tackles. In the 2nd half, when Nevada realized Purdue couldn't run the ball, it allowed them to keep extra men in coverage and shut down the passing game. All our worries about the offensive line are completely confirmed.
- Elijah Sindelar isn't the guy. I was watching in the second half, wondering "where is Moore", and could see Moore getting frustrated. But I watched multiple times where Sindelar threw to a covered first option while Moore was running free, and the only passes in the second half to Moore looked like plays where he was designed to get the ball (and was sniffed out by the defense). Sindelar missed seeing Moore when wide open, and threw to him when covered when he might have had better options. He can make great throws, but if he can't read his progressions and make the right decisions, he's not the guy. And his two interceptions are no good.
- The defense was gassed. This is partly IMHO a matter of youth, and hopefully was a matter of the late kickoff time and the elevation, which won't happen again if Purdue plays in its own time zone. It was also hurt by Purdue's short offensive series in the 2nd half and their punt return miscues keeping them on the field. But by the 4th quarter, they had nothing left. If they're getting that gassed against Nevada, what's going to happen when they face a team with B1G-level athletes?
This team is in trouble. Our future opponents will be able to see that we don't have the OL to have a running game, and they can sit back and defend the passing game with enough attention to make it hard for all those talented receivers to be open. And if Sindelar can't get beyond his first progression anyway, they can just read his eyes and anticipate where he's going with the ball as soon as it's snapped.
The rest of the teams on Purdue's schedule won't need a +5 turnover margin to exploit what they'll see on film from last night. They won't have the talent disparity, and many (including TCU) will have better talent than Purdue.
After last night, I struggle to see bowl eligibility. This loss is worse than the Eastern Michigan loss last year. I think this team has a shot at beating Vandy at home, but not TCU, and then will need to go 5-4 or better in the B1G to make a bowl.
Unless this team grows up FAST on the OL and unless Sindelar either gets better or gets benched, it's going to be a long year.
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1. Agreed. I have to add, I don't think Horvath was all that impressive. He did good on the first half, then looked gassed. He is definitely not an every down back. His style seems perplexing, it's like he tries to be Le'Veon Bell and studderstep for a moment to wait for an opening. Only problem is that he lacks that explosive step afterwards. He also cannot get the edge, way too slow there. He needs to just put his pads down and hit the hole as a hard charger.
We desperately need Armour or Dorue to step up though. Someone with some speed needs to be taking snaps.
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2. Agreed again. Both those picks were just terrible decisions. Even with just a little pressure, he forces something he shouldn't. The OL played surprisingly well in pass blocking too. He also missed Anderson, Bell, Wright, and Hopkins wide open multiple times.
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3. It looked to me like the lower oxygen levels and time zone difference played a significant role in the second half. Bryce Hopkins was throwing up on the sidelines and had to be taken to the tent. Rondale Moore looked gassed in the first half. That, combined with lack of depth, made this team zombie mode in the last half.
I don't think they will be a great 4th quarter team this year, but they will be better than this.
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Overall, I'm not as worried. I was expecting a 6-6 type season. Fun fact, this is the 4th game that Purdue has lost in walk off fashion, with a controversial officiating call, after losing a lead.
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Purdue was the better team, unfortunately they were also the dumber team.
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Purdue was the better team, unfortunately they were also the dumber team.
Dumb teams are a reflection of the coaching staff. Dumb teams usually have dumb coaching. Maybe Brohm just isn't as good as we all thought he was?
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Dumb teams are a reflection of the coaching staff. Dumb teams usually have dumb coaching. Maybe Brohm just isn't as good as we all thought he was?
Eh, I still think he's a good coach, but you do have to wonder about the discipline. Remember they lost two games last year on late personal foul penalties.
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This one reminds me a lot of last year's Purdue-NU game to open the season. (ELA might be alluding to the same.) I felt decent at the time that Purdue was (not by a lot but by enough) better. Who was that DT with the bad decision that cost Purdue the game? Back then, I was expecting Brohm would put the kabosh on it fast. Maybe he still will, but it has been a slower treatment than I thought.
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This one reminds me a lot of last year's Purdue-NU game to open the season. (ELA might be alluding to the same.) I felt decent at the time that Purdue was (not by a lot but by enough) better. Who was that DT with the bad decision that cost Purdue the game? Back then, I was expecting Brohm would put the kabosh on it fast. Maybe he still will, but it has been a slower treatment than I thought.
Yup, they had dumb personal foul penalties that cost them Northwestern and EMU
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Some PFs are accidental, he didn't mean to at all, just misjudged, or the hand grabbed the FM etc.
Late hits and OB are usually not of this ilk, but some are.
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Elijah Sindelar with a broken collarbone suffered against Minnesota. Likely gone for season.
Backup RG DJ Washington, who saw action when starter Matt McCann was injured, gone for season with a broken tibia.
Rondale Moore merely has a hamstring injury, so at least it's not a knee. But hamstrings can be pretty nasty lingering injuries for a WR, so the timetable is unknown. He's definitely expected to be out vs PSU, but how long it lingers beyond that is unknown.
And of course Lorenzo Neal is still out, already ruled out vs PSU.
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Sheesh,Brohm has to keep the troops from getting despondent same as MD in EL
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Starters or players who get significant snaps that are injured for Purdue right now:
- Elijah Sindelar - QB
- Rondale Moore - WR
- Jordan Rucker - CB
- TJ Sheffield - WR
- Anthony Watts - DT
- Lorenzo Neal - DT
- Mershawn Rice - WR
- Jared Sparks - WR
- Milton Wright - WR
- Markus Bailey - LB
- Tario Fuller - RB
- Marvin Grant - S
- Richie Worship - RB
- DJ Washington - OL
Team needs to get healthy.
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Only 5 scholarship WRs healthy right now. Purdue's base offense has 3 WRs, so 1 position doesn't even have a back up right now.
That would be Anthrop's slot position. I imagine if something happens to him they move Anderson into the slot, and bring Taylor to the edge.
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Purdue looks to be kinda screwed right now. I was thinking they'd take a step up this year but it's not looking good.
Time to develop depth. That's about the best Brohm and Co. can do with this group.
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Yep.
Next year should be a step up, maybe just a small one. A 7-5 type season. Brohm will have to hit the transfer market for some OL methinks.
2021 will be Purdue's year.
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At least in theory next year's schedule sets up a lot better for Purdue anyway.
Looking at the current power rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-ranings-week-6/), Purdue plays their best three opponents (#2 UW, #3 PSU, #6 IA) on the road. As road games, those would be likely losses unless Purdue was one of the absolute best teams in the league.
Next year they get both Wisconsin and Iowa at home which should help immensely in the B1G-W race if Purdue is able to be a challenger. Their B1G road games next year are in Lincoln, Ann Arbor, Champaign, Minneapolis, and Bloomington.
If Purdue is the type of team that struggles for bowl eligibility then next year's schedule will suck but if they are the type of team that challenges for the B1G-W then next year's schedule should be great!
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So, six weeks in, here's what we know:
- Purdue is 2-4, but legitimately should probably be 3-3. The loss to Nevada is not a loss that I think would have happened if they'd played week 2 or later. That's one we'd like back.
- Purdue's offense is loaded with weapons, and even without Sindelar, we're starting to see Plummer get comfortable... Against any team without a dominant pass rush. We can put up points as long as the QB can stay upright long enough to throw. Against teams like PSU, not a chance. Against teams like Minnesota or Maryland, we can at least turn games into shootouts.
- Even the loss of Sindelar for the season and Moore for a while didn't look as bad. These young receivers are REALLY starting to come into their own. David Bell is living up to his hype, with big-play ability and the sort of 50/50 ball acumen that is great for a young QB with a struggling OL. Brycen Hopkins remains a stud. Amad Anderson and Milton Wright have been great. And Jackson Anthrop, while no Moore, is a reliably slot option. We finally ended the Zander Horvath @ RB experiment. King Doerue is looking good, and we finally got Tario Fuller back on the field returning from his broken jaw. The offense is really rounding into form--if they can protect Plummer.
- Purdue's defense sucks donkey balls, no matter who we play. We haven't held a single team to less than 5 yards per play or less than 400 yards overall. Only Nevada and TCU were held under 6 yards per play, and frankly for TCU that was because their own QB couldn't hit wide-open receivers and/or the wide-open receivers couldn't catch well-thrown balls.
- Nationally, Purdue's defense is 104th in yards/game, 101st in yards/play, and merely 87th in points/game. We've climbed up to 89th in TO forced and 116th in TO margin though!
- Hence the shootouts. Even Maryland, although the final score was 40-14, could have been a LOT closer. Purdue got bailed out on the early TD pass because of a holding call, and then Maryland found themselves going for it on 4th down (4 attempts, 1 conversion) to try to extend drives and Purdue somehow managed to stop those drives. We still gave up 6.2 ypp and 403 total yards to the Terps. If Purdue hadn't secured the early lead and forced Maryland into catch-up mode, I think the game would have been closer.
- Purdue has played the conference teams who are 2nd (PSU), 6th (MD), and T-9th (MN) for sacks per game in the B1G. They have an upcoming schedule of 13th (Iowa), T-9th (Illini), T-7th (UNL), 12th (NU), 3rd (UW), and T-7th (IU). This gives them a puncher's chance in basically every game except Wisconsin, since the toughest remaining team after the Badgers is the Hawkeyes, and they have a questionable offense (11th in pts/game) and not a great pass rush.
It's still a LONG uphill road to 6-6. But I think the blueprint for getting there is starting to take better shape than we might have thought a few weeks ago. It will take some luck, but it's not out of the question.
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Maryland won't win another game because their OL is shotty and decimated by injury.
But, great win.
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Quarterback room is clearing out a little bit, with Nick Sipe announcing that he is retiring from football for medical reasons.
Right now Purdue has:
- Elijah Sindelar [out for season w/ broken collarbone, but has already been granted his 6th year so he can return next year]
- Jack Plummer [current starter, RS Frosh, 3 years eligibility remaining]
- Aiden O'Connell [walk-on currently listed as Plummer's backup]
- Paul Piferi [true freshman currently in a redshirt year]
- Danny Carollo [another walk-on, but not ever expected to see playing time]
- 2020 4* recruit Michael Alaimo
I'm not sure Sindelar will be back, particularly if Plummer [as it may look today] is a presumptive starter next year. Although he may remain with the team [and under scholarship], as he's already graduated with a BS in Electrical Engineering, and is working on his masters.
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Stick a fork in them... It's over.
While not mathematically eliminated from a bowl, the loss to Illinois was the end. Now we would need to go 4 of 4 against Nebraska, @Northwestern, @Wisconsin, and vs Indiana.
Here's ESPN's FPI calculation of the odds to win each:
- Nebraska - 53.1%
- @Northwestern - 48.1%
- @Wisconsin - 6.3%
- Indiana - 36.1%
Based on those odds, the chances of going 3-0 against everyone but Wisconsin is only 9.2%. The chances of going 4-0 through that schedule is 0.5%. Jeff Brohm has pulled rabbits out of his hat the past two years to back into bowl games. Not gonna happen this time.
A couple of thoughts, though, based on things in the Power Rankings thread:
@MichiFan87
11. Purdue - Not a good look to get dominated at home by Illinois.
Again, much like the Purdue / Maryland score looked a lot more lopsided than it was, this was not as thorough of a domination as it appears. I think Purdue was more dominated by the weather and Jeff Brohm's coaching than they were by Illinois. Offensively the team had trouble dealing with the elements, especially given the already-dismal running attack the team has this year. Then Brohm playing musical QB when Plummer was struggling rattled his confidence while putting Aiden O'Connell, who wasn't prepared to lead this team, in the fire.
That said, for most of the first half this was a close game. Purdue was struggling offense, but was shutting Illinois down offensively. Even when the score was 10-0, those ten points were the result of Illinois having one big run [couldn't move the ball afterwards and settled for a FG] and a pick six deep in Purdue territory. As the game wore on and Purdue's offense struggled, Illinois started wearing down the defensive front and getting more yardage, but in the end, Illinois only gained 268 yards on the day--less, in fact, than Purdue [271]. Purdue's defense held Illinois to 4-14 on third down, and generally would have kept Purdue in the game if Purdue's offense had done anything. That, and turnovers. Purdue obviously gifted Illinois 7 points on the pick six deep in their own territory, but Illinois' final TD also occurred on a short field after a fumble, giving Illinois the ball on the Purdue 22.
Much like the EMU game last year, also played in a monsoon, Purdue just hadn't figured out how to play in the wind and rain. A lot of terrible drops by the WR/TE on well-thrown balls ended drives. They shot themselves in the foot too many times; it's not all to Illinois' credit. A 24-6 final score looks bad, but Illinois didn't really look dominant.
@ELA
11. PURDUE - you do have to wonder how this impacts recruiting momentum
It may be too early to tell, but the 2020 class looks quite good for now. Ranked 26th nationally and 4th in the B1G, with four 4* already committed, although as some of the bigger programs (who may be waiting for high-prospect recruits) fill out their classes, the ranking might drop a little.
The question is whether Purdue can keep them committed, and get them to sign the LOI.
But assuming Brohm retains the bulk of the current 2020 commits, I think we're fine on recruiting momentum. This year's results probably are hurting our recruiting for 2021, as is the two bumper classes which might reduce the sales tactic of "early playing time" to top guys. But with who we'll have on campus for the 2020 season, I'm confident the on-field results can improve to the point where 2021 might be a blip and 2022's class is good.
The threat is if we start to see high-profile 2020 recruits decommit. The 2019 class was great, but we need those 2020 guys to sustain what we're building. At that point we have a decent 2018 class and very good 2019/2020 classes to build around. At that point having one lesser class won't be a major hit, as long as the team starts winning.