Stick a fork in them... It's over.
While not mathematically eliminated from a bowl, the loss to Illinois was the end. Now we would need to go 4 of 4 against Nebraska, @Northwestern, @Wisconsin, and vs Indiana.
Here's ESPN's FPI calculation of the odds to win each:
- Nebraska - 53.1%
- @Northwestern - 48.1%
- @Wisconsin - 6.3%
- Indiana - 36.1%
Based on those odds, the chances of going 3-0 against everyone but Wisconsin is only 9.2%. The chances of going 4-0 through that schedule is 0.5%. Jeff Brohm has pulled rabbits out of his hat the past two years to back into bowl games. Not gonna happen this time.
A couple of thoughts, though, based on things in the Power Rankings thread:
@MichiFan87
11. Purdue - Not a good look to get dominated at home by Illinois.
Again, much like the Purdue / Maryland score looked a lot more lopsided than it was, this was not as thorough of a domination as it appears. I think Purdue was more dominated by the weather and Jeff Brohm's coaching than they were by Illinois. Offensively the team had trouble dealing with the elements, especially given the already-dismal running attack the team has this year. Then Brohm playing musical QB when Plummer was struggling rattled his confidence while putting Aiden O'Connell, who wasn't prepared to lead this team, in the fire.
That said, for most of the first half this was a close game. Purdue was struggling offense, but was shutting Illinois down offensively. Even when the score was 10-0, those ten points were the result of Illinois having one big run [couldn't move the ball afterwards and settled for a FG] and a pick six deep in Purdue territory. As the game wore on and Purdue's offense struggled, Illinois started wearing down the defensive front and getting more yardage, but in the end, Illinois only gained 268 yards on the day--less, in fact, than Purdue [271]. Purdue's defense held Illinois to 4-14 on third down, and generally would have kept Purdue in the game if Purdue's offense had done anything. That, and turnovers. Purdue obviously gifted Illinois 7 points on the pick six deep in their own territory, but Illinois' final TD also occurred on a short field after a fumble, giving Illinois the ball on the Purdue 22.
Much like the EMU game last year, also played in a monsoon, Purdue just hadn't figured out how to play in the wind and rain. A lot of terrible drops by the WR/TE on well-thrown balls ended drives. They shot themselves in the foot too many times; it's not all to Illinois' credit. A 24-6 final score looks bad, but Illinois didn't really look dominant.
@ELA
11. PURDUE - you do have to wonder how this impacts recruiting momentum
It may be too early to tell, but the 2020 class looks quite good for now. Ranked 26th nationally and 4th in the B1G, with four 4* already committed, although as some of the bigger programs (who may be waiting for high-prospect recruits) fill out their classes, the ranking might drop a little.
The question is whether Purdue can keep them committed, and get them to sign the LOI. But assuming Brohm retains the bulk of the current 2020 commits, I think we're fine on recruiting momentum. This year's results probably are hurting our recruiting for 2021, as is the two bumper classes which might reduce the sales tactic of "early playing time" to top guys. But with who we'll have on campus for the 2020 season, I'm confident the on-field results can improve to the point where 2021 might be a blip and 2022's class is good.
The threat is if we start to see high-profile 2020 recruits decommit. The 2019 class was great, but we need those 2020 guys to sustain what we're building. At that point we have a decent 2018 class and very good 2019/2020 classes to build around. At that point having one lesser class won't be a major hit, as long as the team starts winning.
