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Topic: 2019 Purdue Season Thread

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WhiskeyM

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #28 on: August 18, 2019, 05:05:01 PM »
Awful for Fuller.  Kid has looked really good when 100%.  Was really looking forward to seeing him play again.

I really like Horvath though.  He's a 6-3 230 pound bruiser with good speed.  More of a FB I suppose.  Alstott type back.  He was giving Fuller a run for the starting job all spring and summer.

RS Fresh Alfred Armour will certainly see the field now as well.  Another punisher, 6-1 235.  An off-season video shows him squat 600 pounds. Rondale had an impressive squat last year. Purdue does not skip leg day!

Honestbuckeye

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #29 on: August 18, 2019, 06:24:10 PM »
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

bwarbiany

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #30 on: August 19, 2019, 04:24:59 PM »
Posted at H&R
Posted at H&R, the 5-year average of Big Ten ranking for recruiting class, and average player ranking:

Class Rank

  • OSU 1.4
  • Mich 2.6
  • PSU 2.6
  • Neb 4.4
  • MSU 5
  • Wisc 6.8
  • Mary 6.8
  • Iowa 9.2
  • Minn 10
  • IN 10.2
  • IL. 11.2
  • NW 11.4
  • Purdue 11.6
  • Rutg. 11.8

Player Grade
  • OSU 92.52
  • Mich 89.68
  • PSU 89.63
  • Neb 87.42
  • MSU 87.17
  • Wisc 86.12
  • Mary 85.71
  • NW 85.01
  • Iowa 84.71
  • Minn 84.46
  • IN 84.33
  • IL 83.69
  • Rutg 83.61
  • Purdue 83.22


If you wonder why Purdue fans aren't thinking this is the true "breakout" year for Brohm, this is it.

Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #31 on: August 19, 2019, 05:16:49 PM »
That 2015 class should have been more of a weight for Harbaugh. Michigan only got 4 useful juniors or seniors out of it (Higdon, Kinnel, Gentry, Runyan). That's the class where the best guys decommitted while Hoke was lame ducking and Harbaugh couldn't begin recruiting until January. Michigan finished fifth in the Big Ten. Otherwise they've averaged 2.0 in this period (finishing 1st once, 2nd thrice and 3rd once).

As for Purdue, yeah, that's brutal. The true freshman class is shimmery, though.

bwarbiany

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #32 on: August 19, 2019, 06:13:22 PM »
That 2015 class should have been more of a weight for Harbaugh. Michigan only got 4 useful juniors or seniors out of it (Higdon, Kinnel, Gentry, Runyan). That's the class where the best guys decommitted while Hoke was lame ducking and Harbaugh couldn't begin recruiting until January. Michigan finished fifth in the Big Ten. Otherwise they've averaged 2.0 in this period (finishing 1st once, 2nd thrice and 3rd once).

As for Purdue, yeah, that's brutal. The true freshman class is shimmery, though.

I do think weighting should be done based on class. The problem with everyone loving Purdue's 2019 class is that they're freshmen. Football is a sport that you have to be EXCEPTIONAL to come in and produce as a true freshman. 

So I'd like to see the average recruit weighting done to reduce the impact of true freshmen, and appropriately value upperclassmen.

For example:

  • True frosh class: 10% of overall class weight
  • 2nd year class (RS frosh / true Soph): 20% of overall class weight
  • 3rd year class (RS Soph / true Jr): 25% of overall class weight
  • 4th year class (RS jr / true Sr): 30% of overall class weight
  • 5th year class: 15% of overall class weight

Reasoning:

  • True frosh or only rarely able to contribute at a high level. Even of our strong 2018 WR class, Rondale was the only player who saw time. Amad Anderson, Kory Taylor, and Jordan Bonner were all "more talented" than guys like Wright and Mahongou as rated by the recruiting services, but they didn’t see the field.
  • 5th year players should also be underweighted, for a couple reasons. First, anyone who didn’t redshirt is gone. Second, anyone who is left is not NFL material. Third, a number of the people left might be "journeymen" at best who are still around but non-contributors. You may have some stellar redshirt seniors here, but I think since you’re dealing with class rather than individual players, you need to discount the 5th year guys.
  • Beyond that, you increasingly rate experience higher than inexperience, so there is an increase in weighting between 2nd through 4th years. 2nd is still 20% (1/5th of 5 classes) so it’s not "underweight", but you give extra weight to 3rd and 4th year classes at the expense of true frosh and 5th year guys.




Anonymous Coward

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #33 on: August 19, 2019, 06:36:26 PM »
I think that's pretty good, though I might recommend a steeper peak. Something like 10-15-28-30-15. Sophomores often seem to disappoint for how surprised we are that they are still unready (enough to play, but not to star) and the players who are worldbeaters seem pretty evenly split to me between TrJr and TrSr.

bwarbiany

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #34 on: August 19, 2019, 06:55:58 PM »
I think that's pretty good, though I might recommend a steeper peak. Something like 10-15-28-30-15. Sophomores often seem to disappoint for how surprised we are that they are still unready (enough to play, but not to star) and the players who are worldbeaters seem pretty evenly split to me between TrJr and TrSr.
Sure. It was an off-the-cuff weighting.

Obviously someone with a lot of time could compile recruiting rankings for higher-end FBS programs over a 15-year period, and correlate the weighting to the final AP polls, such that they could get a weighting that better approximates results.

I'm guessing neither of our weightings would be that far off the mark lol...

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #35 on: August 19, 2019, 07:30:28 PM »
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27355502/meet-rondale-moore-purdue-record-breaking-history-making-phenom

That guy still running through my living room in my dreams lol.
I feel the same way about Devin Smith from the 2014 CCG. In fact, I think he just ran across my patio.


U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

ELA

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Re: 2019 Purdue Offseason Thread
« Reply #36 on: August 19, 2019, 08:14:57 PM »
It might be too laborious, but I'd be interested in seeing the version only counting players still there.  

bwarbiany

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Re: 2019 Purdue Season Thread
« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2019, 12:39:27 PM »
So... That sucked.

Why did Purdue lose to Nevada, and what does it mean for the rest of the year?

Well, first things first, five turnovers to zero is a difficult margin to overcome against any team. Those turnovers kept Nevada in the game as we approached the 4th quarter, when Purdue's youth and limited depth was gassed.

But it's more than that. A lot more.


  • Purdue couldn't run the ball. They finished the game with 96 rushing yards and a 3.3 ypc average. That, against a MWC team? Not good. Not good at all. Zander Horvath looked good enough, but he's not a speed back, and the line wasn't opening big enough holes between the tackles. In the 2nd half, when Nevada realized Purdue couldn't run the ball, it allowed them to keep extra men in coverage and shut down the passing game. All our worries about the offensive line are completely confirmed.
  • Elijah Sindelar isn't the guy. I was watching in the second half, wondering "where is Moore", and could see Moore getting frustrated. But I watched multiple times where Sindelar threw to a covered first option while Moore was running free, and the only passes in the second half to Moore looked like plays where he was designed to get the ball (and was sniffed out by the defense). Sindelar missed seeing Moore when wide open, and threw to him when covered when he might have had better options. He can make great throws, but if he can't read his progressions and make the right decisions, he's not the guy. And his two interceptions are no good. 
  • The defense was gassed. This is partly IMHO a matter of youth, and hopefully was a matter of the late kickoff time and the elevation, which won't happen again if Purdue plays in its own time zone. It was also hurt by Purdue's short offensive series in the 2nd half and their punt return miscues keeping them on the field. But by the 4th quarter, they had nothing left. If they're getting that gassed against Nevada, what's going to happen when they face a team with B1G-level athletes?


This team is in trouble. Our future opponents will be able to see that we don't have the OL to have a running game, and they can sit back and defend the passing game with enough attention to make it hard for all those talented receivers to be open. And if Sindelar can't get beyond his first progression anyway, they can just read his eyes and anticipate where he's going with the ball as soon as it's snapped. 

The rest of the teams on Purdue's schedule won't need a +5 turnover margin to exploit what they'll see on film from last night. They won't have the talent disparity, and many (including TCU) will have better talent than Purdue. 

After last night, I struggle to see bowl eligibility. This loss is worse than the Eastern Michigan loss last year. I think this team has a shot at beating Vandy at home, but not TCU, and then will need to go 5-4 or better in the B1G to make a bowl. 

Unless this team grows up FAST on the OL and unless Sindelar either gets better or gets benched, it's going to be a long year.

WhiskeyM

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Re: 2019 Purdue Season Thread
« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2019, 04:06:10 PM »
1.  Agreed.  I have to add, I don't think Horvath was all that impressive.  He did good on the first half, then looked gassed.  He is definitely not an every down back.  His style seems perplexing, it's like he tries to be Le'Veon Bell and studderstep for a moment to wait for an opening.  Only problem is that he lacks that explosive step afterwards.  He also cannot get the edge, way too slow there.  He needs to just put his pads down and hit the hole as a hard charger.

We desperately need Armour or Dorue to step up though.  Someone with some speed needs to be taking snaps.
« Last Edit: August 31, 2019, 04:13:11 PM by WhiskeyM »

WhiskeyM

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Re: 2019 Purdue Season Thread
« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2019, 04:08:54 PM »
2.  Agreed again.  Both those picks were just terrible decisions.  Even with just a little pressure, he forces something he shouldn't.  The OL played surprisingly well in pass blocking too.  He also missed Anderson, Bell, Wright, and Hopkins wide open multiple times. 

WhiskeyM

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Re: 2019 Purdue Season Thread
« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2019, 04:11:50 PM »
3. It looked to me like the lower oxygen levels and time zone difference played a significant role in the second half.  Bryce Hopkins was throwing up on the sidelines and had to be taken to the tent.  Rondale Moore looked gassed in the first half.  That, combined with lack of depth, made this team zombie mode in the last half.

I don't think they will be a great 4th quarter team this year, but they will be better than this.

WhiskeyM

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Re: 2019 Purdue Season Thread
« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2019, 04:19:23 PM »
Overall, I'm not as worried.  I was expecting a 6-6 type season.  Fun fact, this is the 4th game that Purdue has lost in walk off fashion, with a controversial officiating call, after losing a lead.

 

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