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Topic: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #784 on: April 12, 2019, 06:47:44 PM »
Not sure Tesla is in good shape right now... I think their problem is not producing enough to meet demand, as I think demand is in trouble because most people who want [and can afford] a Tesla already have one, and their ability to produce the $35K model at a profit is highly questionable.
They're flailing like a fish on the pier right now, and I'm not sure they're going to find water again.
That isn't exactly true. Demand for their Model S and X were at all-time highs last year. Tesla had explosive growth in car sales last year- and that was even with all of their production problems. The company has been plagued with production problems since it's inception. Tesla also has by far the highest customer retention rate of any car brand in the world. It's not even remotely close. When people want to replace their Tesla or replace their 2nd car for the wife/significant other they do so with a new Tesla more than 80% of the time.
The 35k model was always just a fantasy. It was just a marketing ploy. The $35k was suppose to be the base model with 0 options and with the $7,500 tax credit. Those tax credits got halved in the blink of an eye and are slated to completely disappear, and they were selling $50,000+ Model 3's for the most part.
I would not bet against Tesla. People try to think of them as just another car company. They are not. They make products that people actually love and want to buy. Other car companies do not. People don't want to buy EV's. They want to buy a Tesla. There's a huge difference. At the end of the day it always comes down to the product and the customer service- they are top notch in both department. When Ford or GM or Chrysler announce a new car- almost no one gives a shit. They sure as hell aren't getting 500,000 pre-orders willing to shell out $1,000 every time they announce a new car model with all those 500,000 people knowing full well their car is never going to delivered on time- and they still shell out the money and for the most part the vast majority wait it out for their car and take the delivery delays.

MichiFan87

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #785 on: April 12, 2019, 07:53:28 PM »
Tesla has a supply problem, not a demand one. EVs will continue to get cheaper, too, with the batteries*, and then demand for EVs as a whole will continue to grow. In fact, this week it was reported that the federal government is considering extending the EV tax credit past 200k vehicles + 15 more months of sales per manufacturer, which Tesla has already exceeded, up to 400k.

*I've said this before, but their battery business is going to be more profitable long-term, especially for utility-scale systems compared to their residential scale powerwalls.

Putting aside Musk's twitter antics that could get the company in trouble, the big questions are what happens when other automakers increase their market share in EVs, and how will autonomous vehicles affect them (they seem to be more prepared for it with their own self-driving technology and supposedly developing a car-sharing platform, but it remains to be seen how that gets implemented).
“When your team is winning, be ready to be tough, because winning can make you soft. On the other hand, when your team is losing, stick by them. Keep believing”
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Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #786 on: April 12, 2019, 08:30:02 PM »
Tesla has a supply problem, not a demand one. EVs will continue to get cheaper, too, with the batteries*, and then demand for EVs as a whole will continue to grow. In fact, this week it was reported that the federal government is considering extending the EV tax credit past 200k vehicles + 15 more months of sales per manufacturer, which Tesla has already exceeded, up to 400k.

*I've said this before, but their battery business is going to be more profitable long-term, especially for utility-scale systems compared to their residential scale powerwalls.

Putting aside Musk's twitter antics that could get the company in trouble, the big questions are what happens when other automakers increase their market share in EVs, and how will autonomous vehicles affect them (they seem to be more prepared for it with their own self-driving technology and supposedly developing a car-sharing platform, but it remains to be seen how that gets implemented).
A lot of people assumed that the Model 3 would cannibalize their Model S and X sales, but the opposite thing actually happened. People went to Tesla showrooms to check out the 3 and wound up buying the S and X. They had huge spikes in demand for the Model S and X and couldn't produce enough to meet said demand. Tesla actually had back to back QTRs last year when they were profitable- first time ever in their 15 year history with back-to-back profitable QTRs.
I'd guess that the other car companies moving to EVs only could actually only help Tesla sell more cars. If all the other car companies are only selling EVs and the charging infrastructure has to get pushed forward and gas stations get converted to charge stations and the people who were holding out on EVs have to start buying them, well then that's just a bigger market place for Tesla to come in and snag those customers.
And fully autonomous driving is still a ways off, much further than people think, and I don't buy the ride-sharing hype train for a second. Lyft and Uber are money losing scams.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #787 on: April 12, 2019, 09:46:40 PM »
I had a 2005 Cadillac CTS and bought another in 2014, so I guess I liked them.  The Escalade with just a Chevrolet with fancier trim.
Mrs. 847 liked the bling on the Caddy. Then I told her that the Tahoe would maybe get her another diamond ring and an earing and it was all good. The Tahoe is gone but the bling still stands. And, I'm done. She has no more fingers and no more ears.
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MrNubbz

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #788 on: April 13, 2019, 01:46:41 AM »
Not sure Tesla is in good shape right now... 
According to Clark Howard consumer advocate they are not
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847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #789 on: April 13, 2019, 07:53:51 AM »
Just looked it up and found that the wife's GLK station wagon is based on the C Class. Interesting. It's got a similar (same?)  engine to the one in my E, so it moves pretty good. 



Anyway, it's now called the GLC, which lines it up with the C Class. The GLE lines up with the E Class. GLS.. I get it now.



I'm NOT going to tell her she has a C Class, especially if I go out and get an S. Heh. But station wagon? Yep, I'm telling her that.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #790 on: April 13, 2019, 08:06:01 AM »
I got to be quasi-buddies with a salesman at the Caddy dealer in Cincy where we bought our 2014.  I'd stop by when I was in for an oil change and we'd chat.  He told me they sold every Escalade at list about as soon as they hit the floor.  He had one in stock, on the showroom floor, listing at $95 K.  He said it would be gone that day, mostly sold to women living in Indian Hill.  I took a look at it, it certainly has "features" galore, but the thing is a Chevy Tahoe.  Supposedly Caddy is working on a new one that will be unique, or more unique.

Cadillac makes almost all their profit on them, and the smaller SUVs (which are also Chevy clones).  I had one of them as a loaner and did not like it at all.  The wife liked sitting up higher, that is a big deal for the ladies apparently.  You sit pretty high in a minivan also.  So, longer term, Caddy is bringing out more SUVs and electric vehicles and  cutting way down on sedans, which makes sense financially, other than the EVs which still don't make a profit.

Tesla is about to face some high end competition from folks like Volvo and Audi and others who can deliver on promises and turn out enough vehicles to fill the pipelines.  I have thought of pricier EVs as being mostly choices for "early adopters" with money (and that $7500 tax credit).  There are only so many of them around.  We MIGHT end up with a surfeit of EVs at varying price points and few customers.  The industry is pushing this hard right now.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #791 on: April 13, 2019, 08:24:03 AM »
I'm finding myself looking at GLE's this morning for the wife, even though we just upgraded her GLK to a newer one last year. Need a trailer hitch, which is hard to find (and what we have) so we can use the bike rack, and tow the WaveRunner twice a year.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #792 on: April 13, 2019, 08:37:09 AM »
I can't keep all the terms straight on cars.  BMW has been fairly consistent with their numerical series, though a 3 series today is the size of a 5 series 20 years ago.

I used to read most of the car mags each month.  I can get most of them on line for free now and no clutter.  I have zero magazine or newspaper subscriptions today.  I imagine many of us are the same.  I can recall in the distant past taking SI and NG and enough magazines to fill boxes with clutter.  Sometimes I walk up to the local Schwab office and chat with Dan and read their WSJ, or at least look through it a bit.

The times are achangin'.

The Dogwood Festival started yesterday, so we went early to avoid the crowds and the wife found a $500 clock she really really had to have.  Now I have to hang it somewhere.  I asked her where she would put it before we bought it and she said  "I'll find room".

I like seeing what some of the artists do at the show and I can view for free of course, but one inevitably ends up buying an overpriced something at a booth.  The mixed drinks are all $10 each and beer is $7 each.  I got neither.  This is a rather large festival thing.  I guess it's all good, but I'm out $500, for a clock.



The Atlanta Dogwood Festival includes one of the largest and most diverse juried arts festivals in the country. More than 260 artists from around the country exhibit in 12 categories, including painting, glass, clay, wood and mixed media. Some of the country’s top painters, photographers, sculptors, leather and metal craftsmen, glass blowers and more participate in the Atlanta Dogwood Festival Artist Market. In 2018, the Artist Market was ranked #23, out of the Top 200 Best Art Shows in the Country by Sunshine Artist Magazine and #42 of Best Fine Arts Shows from Art Fair Source Book.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #793 on: April 13, 2019, 08:43:22 AM »
Looks like fun. Still winter here.
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #794 on: April 13, 2019, 08:51:10 AM »
It is kinda fun, at least on Friday.  Today and tomorrow will be a mass of people.  Yesterday was partly sunny with clouds enough not to be that hot.  I got sweaty toting that clock back to the condo.  It's bulky, not heavy.  I'm delighted to be in better weather than Cincy.  

I think our lowest T in winter was 23°F and the highest last summer was 93°F, for one day.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #795 on: April 13, 2019, 11:40:14 AM »
Jeep day today. Rolling down to an outlet mall as I need new athletic shoes, then homebrew store and a brewery (or two). 

Lamb burgers on the menu tonight. 

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #796 on: April 13, 2019, 03:47:02 PM »
I got to be quasi-buddies with a salesman at the Caddy dealer in Cincy where we bought our 2014.  I'd stop by when I was in for an oil change and we'd chat.  He told me they sold every Escalade at list about as soon as they hit the floor.  He had one in stock, on the showroom floor, listing at $95 K.  He said it would be gone that day, mostly sold to women living in Indian Hill.  I took a look at it, it certainly has "features" galore, but the thing is a Chevy Tahoe.  Supposedly Caddy is working on a new one that will be unique, or more unique.

Cadillac makes almost all their profit on them, and the smaller SUVs (which are also Chevy clones).  I had one of them as a loaner and did not like it at all.  The wife liked sitting up higher, that is a big deal for the ladies apparently.  You sit pretty high in a minivan also.  So, longer term, Caddy is bringing out more SUVs and electric vehicles and  cutting way down on sedans, which makes sense financially, other than the EVs which still don't make a profit.

Tesla is about to face some high end competition from folks like Volvo and Audi and others who can deliver on promises and turn out enough vehicles to fill the pipelines.  I have thought of pricier EVs as being mostly choices for "early adopters" with money (and that $7500 tax credit).  There are only so many of them around.  We MIGHT end up with a surfeit of EVs at varying price points and few customers.  The industry is pushing this hard right now.
The Escalade is the only Caddillac I like. That thing is gorgeous. I do see what you're saying in terms of it being a clone of the Tahoe though. Easy to see why they make huge profit of them- they sell that truck for $100k. I remember when it first came out in 2000 and a fully loaded one was 55k at most. Essentially doubled in price. And it's a choice ride for rappers, athletes, mobsters, drug dealers, and rich soccer moms.
As for Tesla, I just don't buy that Tesla is going to face any real competition from Volvo or Audi or Porsche or anyone really. Not any time soon. This is a myth that the Musk haters and Tesla bears have been perpetuating for 10 years straight now, and it wasn't true then and it isn't true now. It's like the boy who cried wolf. They keep saying it, but nothing happens. Why? Because: batteries.
Tesla is light years ahead of everyone there. Tesla pays far less for it's batteries than any of their competitors and their battery powered electric motors far out-perform every single one of their competitors. Tesla's batteries right now are getting 4.1 miles per KW/h. It's competitors are getting 2.3 miles per KW/h on a good day. Almost 2 to 1 in range. Tesla batteries are far superior. They are more powerful, have more range, are 50% lighter, use less cobalt and therefore are at least 25-30% cheaper than their competitors. Tesla's battery costs will only continue to drop year over year as they scale production at their Gigafacory battery plants. 10 years ago the batteries were costing Tesla $300 per kw/h, now it's down to $111 and will soon be below $100. Tesla is the largest producer of batteries in the fricken world. None of their competitors can come close to the performance and the cost. Not for years, not yet.
There were articles in the German press from not even a month or so ago, where Audi/Porsche engineers did tear downs of the Model 3 and they basically shit their pants in fear because they realized their EV platform sucked compared to Tesla and they were at least 3-5 years behind and they had to go back to the drawing board and re-design a whole bunch of shit to get their PPE platform even remotely close to what Tesla did with the model 3.
Tesla by the way- is breaking ground on their China factory in Shanghai this year. China is the largest auto market in the entire world. China is also the largest EV market in the world with about half of all EVs in the world. And China is also mandating that all new autos be EV by 2030. Tesla is opening up a battery and vehicle production factory in China which will just bring the costs of their batteries down even more and help them sell more cars in the largest auto and largest EV market in the entire world. Tesla's business in China by the way will be the first wholly foreign owned auto business in the history of China. GM/VW/Ford- they all had to give China a 50% or more taste in their businesses in China. China is pushing so hard for EV's, they relaxed the rules forcing a state owned joint venture- and are letting Tesla own the entire business 100% and helped Telsa secure $550 million in Chinese loans to build the factory.
Tesla's costs on the batteries keep going down and the performance keeps improving. They have a massive head start on their competitors and that China deal is HUGE for them. They can own China and keep all that money and tech for themselves. The biggest mistake so many American companies did was whore themselves out to China and let China not only take half the profits, but get all their tech. These short sighted morons were so hard on for a quick buck and to boost stock prices they signed their own death warrants by handing all of their tech over to the Chinese.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #797 on: April 13, 2019, 03:50:47 PM »
Give me an MB GLS over an Escalade any day of the week. For $100K I could get a 2 year old, low-mile GLS AMG with unlimited mile warrantee for 7 years, on a CPO deal. Not that I would, but still.
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