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Topic: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness

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Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #798 on: April 13, 2019, 04:32:23 PM »
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-2170-energy-density-compared-bolt-p100d/

TeslaModel 3 / Panasonic 2170 cell
We have usable energy density numbers from 78.3 kWh’s at the high end, down to 72 kWh’s on the low end. We used 76 kWh’s in our calculation based on Ingineer and Jack Rickard. There are 4416 cells in the Model 3 LR pack, so that puts the usable energy density of one 2170 cell at 17.2 watt hours and the energy density equal to 76/4416/.070=
246 watt-hours/kg
The Volume of one 2170 cell is .0242 liters (21mmX 70mm cylinder), resulting in a usable energy density by volume of:
711 watt-hours/liter

BoltEV
How do these number stack up against the Chevrolet Bolt EV?
According to JeffN over at Electricrevs, the usable energy of the Bolt EV pack is 57 kWh’s (ref). This is the number that is stamped on the inside of the pack by GM. In practice, Bolt EV owners seem to be getting this number, some maybe 58-59 kWh’s (ref). We will use 57 kWh’s in our calculation. There are 288 cells in the Bolt EV pack, so that puts the usable kWh’s of one cell at 198 watt hours.
The weight of one Bolt EV cell is an estimate. The closest we have is from a couple of Chinese cell specs for a cell that is supposedly a Bolt EV cell= 820-850 grams (ref).
We will use the median number in our calcs= 835grams. Giving the usable energy density of one Bolt EV cell=198/.835=
237 watt hours/kg
So, the Bolt EV gravimetric (weight) energy density is less than Tesla’s 2170 by around 4%. Not a bad showing in our opinion. Especially since Bolt EV owners seem to be exceeding GM’s rated pack minimum energy and Tesla Model 3 owners are not. Considering that, we could almost call it a draw on the Bolt EV versus Tesla 2170 energy density by weight.
The volume of one Bolt EV cell is also an estimate. We will use dimensions of 270mmX100X 16.5=.446 liters (electricrevs ref). This may be an optimistic number. We can also calculate it from John Kelley’s video. He measured the width, height, and depth of module 1 and 10 in his Bolt EV battery reassembly video (ref@44:00:00) There are 60 cells in those two modules. So, dividing by 60 we get the dimensions of one Bolt EV cell as 16mmX 108X343= .592 liters (vs the .446 liters we used in our calcs). However, the 343mm length number includes a circuit board, so these volume numbers may be a bit high. We would have to subtract some for the circuit board. JeffN says he knows of someone with a disassembled Bolt pack and may provide us with an update on both weight and volume later.
That puts the volumetric energy density of one Bolt EV cell at 198 /.446=

MarqHusker

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #799 on: April 13, 2019, 05:27:15 PM »
Masters going with a  9am EST start Sunday to combat the afternoon Storms.    Lots of low scores today.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #800 on: April 13, 2019, 05:52:26 PM »
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-3-2170-energy-density-compared-bolt-p100d/

TeslaModel 3 / Panasonic 2170 cell
We have usable energy density numbers from 78.3 kWh’s at the high end, down to 72 kWh’s on the low end. We used 76 kWh’s in our calculation based on Ingineer and Jack Rickard. There are 4416 cells in the Model 3 LR pack, so that puts the usable energy density of one 2170 cell at 17.2 watt hours and the energy density equal to 76/4416/.070=
246 watt-hours/kg
The Volume of one 2170 cell is .0242 liters (21mmX 70mm cylinder), resulting in a usable energy density by volume of:
711 watt-hours/liter

BoltEV
How do these number stack up against the Chevrolet Bolt EV?
According to JeffN over at Electricrevs, the usable energy of the Bolt EV pack is 57 kWh’s (ref). This is the number that is stamped on the inside of the pack by GM. In practice, Bolt EV owners seem to be getting this number, some maybe 58-59 kWh’s (ref). We will use 57 kWh’s in our calculation. There are 288 cells in the Bolt EV pack, so that puts the usable kWh’s of one cell at 198 watt hours.
The weight of one Bolt EV cell is an estimate. The closest we have is from a couple of Chinese cell specs for a cell that is supposedly a Bolt EV cell= 820-850 grams (ref).
We will use the median number in our calcs= 835grams. Giving the usable energy density of one Bolt EV cell=198/.835=
237 watt hours/kg
So, the Bolt EV gravimetric (weight) energy density is less than Tesla’s 2170 by around 4%. Not a bad showing in our opinion. Especially since Bolt EV owners seem to be exceeding GM’s rated pack minimum energy and Tesla Model 3 owners are not. Considering that, we could almost call it a draw on the Bolt EV versus Tesla 2170 energy density by weight.
The volume of one Bolt EV cell is also an estimate. We will use dimensions of 270mmX100X 16.5=.446 liters (electricrevs ref). This may be an optimistic number. We can also calculate it from John Kelley’s video. He measured the width, height, and depth of module 1 and 10 in his Bolt EV battery reassembly video (ref@44:00:00) There are 60 cells in those two modules. So, dividing by 60 we get the dimensions of one Bolt EV cell as 16mmX 108X343= .592 liters (vs the .446 liters we used in our calcs). However, the 343mm length number includes a circuit board, so these volume numbers may be a bit high. We would have to subtract some for the circuit board. JeffN says he knows of someone with a disassembled Bolt pack and may provide us with an update on both weight and volume later.
That puts the volumetric energy density of one Bolt EV cell at 198 /.446=
GM/Bolt isn't a Tesla competitor. Porsche, Audi, BMW, WV, MB will be their competition in the EV space. Nobody wanted to buy that ugly piece of shit Bolt. Tesla sold more Model 3's last month in Norway alone than GM sold Bolt's and Volt's combined in their entire 1st QTR of this year around the entire world.
GM fell flat on it's face- yet again. Not surprising. But I honestly didn't think they could out-shit the Volt. That was such an ugly piece of shit nobody wanted. Turns out they actually could out brainfart themselves with that raging piece of shit they called the Bolt.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #801 on: April 13, 2019, 06:04:10 PM »
You may not like the styling, fine, my point was that the battery pack evidently has about the same energy density.  You were claiming Audi et al. could not compete with Tesla because of battery energy density.  My personal belief is that Audi et al. will cause significant competitive challenges for Tesla.

Styling is subjective.


Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #802 on: April 13, 2019, 07:02:30 PM »
You may not like the styling, fine, my point was that the battery pack evidently has about the same energy density.  You were claiming Audi et al. could not compete with Tesla because of battery energy density.  My personal belief is that Audi et al. will cause significant competitive challenges for Tesla.

Styling is subjective.
That's a personal belief. But is that belief grounded in fact? Hmmm...let's see...the Audi e-tron was suppose to be delivered to customers a year ago and it's still nowhere near being ready for deliveries. Delayed. Again. E-tron pre-orders? 20,000. Model 3 pre-orders? nearly 500,000. 500,000 > 20,000. By a factor of 25. Ouch.
https://electrek.co/2019/02/09/tesla-model-3-cost-surprise-porsche-audi-reverse-engineering/
Later, a report came out about a German automaker being impressed by Model 3 after reverse-engineering it.
Now a new report from Germany’s Manager Magazin (German and paywall) includes a deep dive into the state of Audi with comments from executives and insider sources.
It claims that Porsche and Audi, who are working together on a next-generation electric platform, had to change their approach because the cost was too high compared to what Tesla is achieving.
They report:
Quote
“The Porsche and Audi engineers have to change [the PPE] because Tesla’s Model 3 has gotten better than they thought.”
The next-gen platform called Premium Platform Electric (PPE) was greenlighted almost two years ago
Premium Platform Electric (PPE) was greenlighted almost two years ago and it is expected to be ready around 2020 or 2021.

According to the new report, the first version was coming at about 3,000 euros too expensive, which Porsche is said to be able to absorb but Audi wasn’t on board. They believe that they need to lower the cost in order to be competitive with other upcoming EVs.
The battery cell cost is apparently the biggest factor that pushes the cost of the platform higher and Tesla claims to be leading the industry on that front.
According to the report, Audi and Porsche could delay the PPE in order to improve the cost and be competitive with Tesla.
The PPE is becoming increasingly important for Audi according to Manager-Magazin’s report, which describes a failing e-tron program:
Quote
The e-tron as the first electric Audi is not only late. It does not reach some target values and has become far too expensive with more than two billion euros in development costs. The approximately 600,000 cars sold for the break-even are now regarded as an illusion.
The e-tron electric SUV was supposed to be delivered to customers last year, but Audi says that software issues have resulted in delays.
The German automaker is still planning several other vehicles based on the same platform before the PPE becomes available.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So....Audi/Porsche reversed engineered the Model 3 in Feb and shit their pants. They found they are 3,000 euros- basically $3,500 - behind Tesla on a shared Audi/Porsche PPE platform that is still 2 years out. Yikes. Sounds like it's gonna be delayed. Again.
Styling is subjective. Ok.
Coolness factor, cultural impact, demand, brand value, customer loyalty/retention, innovation, sales #'s aren't. GM has nothing to show there with the Bolt. Tesla is destroying their face off and eating their lunch. Tesla is the iPhone to GM's Microsoft Windows Phone.
Really, the only thing GM has over Tesla is the production capacity and a bloated marketing budget to peddle their shit cars that deep down no one really truly wants. GM can produce millions of cars a ear with ease while Tesla struggles mightily to produce even 200,000 a year. GM's marketing budget? $3-4 billion a year. Tesla's marketing budget? $0. They don't have one. If Tesla had the manufacturing infrastructure in place to produce the cars at scale and a $3-4 billion a year marketing budget to peddle cars that people already want and love and think are cool- well they'd put GM out of business. GM is doing a dandy job putting themselves out of business as it is anyway.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #803 on: April 13, 2019, 07:17:29 PM »
I think you are enthralled with Tesla to the point of not being dispassionate in your analysis.

Audi and Volvo and Mercedes and Porsche are all coming to the EV game, and they will have battery technology comparable to that of Tesla, just as Chevy does.

There is nothing magical or unique about Tesla cars.  My read is that the EV market is going to become over saturated as first movers have all bought and the rest of the folks are leary about EVs.  That looks bad to me for anyone who can't fall back on SUV/truck profits.

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #804 on: April 13, 2019, 07:50:01 PM »
I think you are enthralled with Tesla to the point of not being dispassionate in your analysis.

Audi and Volvo and Mercedes and Porsche are all coming to the EV game, and they will have battery technology comparable to that of Tesla, just as Chevy does.

There is nothing magical or unique about Tesla cars.  My read is that the EV market is going to become over saturated as first movers have all bought and the rest of the folks are leary about EVs.  That looks bad to me for anyone who can't fall back on SUV/truck profits.
Lol.
Audi, Volvo, Mercedes, and Porsche are all way behind Tesla in the EV game. Been hearing nothing but boogie man stories for 10 years about those companies coming to the EV game and wiping out Tesla. And then nothing happens. All those companies battery tech performance is behind Tesla, but far more importantly THEIR COSTS on the battery is way behind Tesla.
There is nothing magical or unique about Tesla cars? Yeah. No. Spoken like a person who has never actually driven one. How about you go drive one with Ludicrous mode and try the auto-pilot mode before you say that. Their cars are out of this world. Probably the best car on the market, period. They are flat out amazing cars. Amazing. You're conflating EVs with Tesla's. People don't want to buy EVs. They want to buy Tesla's. There's a difference. If people just wanted EVs they'd have bought the Bolt in droves. But, nobody wanted to buy that piece of shit. People want to buy Tesla's. Period.
Forget the US market. China is a much bigger auto market than the US. And in 10 1/2 years every new car in China will have to be EV by law. Europe is essentially as big an auto market as the US give or take 1 million cars, and many EU countries are pushing for something similar to China as well. Norway for example already banned all diesel and gas powered cars by 2025. Tesla's sales will be guaranteed in those markets by those governments banning the internal combustion engine.
« Last Edit: April 13, 2019, 07:56:57 PM by Mdot21 »

Mdot21

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #805 on: April 13, 2019, 08:48:15 PM »
https://insideevs.com/electric-vehicle-holy-grail-tesla-tops/

https://insideevs.com/tesla-maxwell-merger-smartest-move-years/

https://insideevs.com/why-tesla-bought-maxwell-technologies/

Again, Tesla aren't just ahead of their "competitors" in battery tech, they are way ahead of them. And not only in range and performance but also in cost.

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #806 on: April 13, 2019, 11:27:37 PM »
Nonsense.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #807 on: April 14, 2019, 01:38:47 AM »
Does Tesla have the capital necessary to acquire maxwell? 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #808 on: April 14, 2019, 09:00:02 AM »
I need to figure out what I'm going to do with my tax refund, and also figure out how to not get such a big amount next year. Income is so unpredictable for me, so that makes it hard. But, it's better to get than have to give, I guess. So, I'm happy about that this morning.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #809 on: April 14, 2019, 09:58:35 AM »
You can make those quarterly payments, and you likely do, and perhaps you can adjust them accordingly.  With interest rates so low, getting a refund now is not heinous really.

Say you get $5000 back, you might have earned $50, maybe, in a money market fund.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #810 on: April 14, 2019, 10:14:00 AM »
Nah. I throw money in the investment account every two weeks. Much better interest rate there.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: 2019 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #811 on: April 14, 2019, 10:33:50 AM »
I have an ETF that pays 2.2% and is 7 day money.  If you overpay $5000 of course, that in effect would net 1.1% in interest over that time period because you don't have it all from the start.  CDs these days are paying 2-3% depending on maturity, and I don't want to go out 5 years.  I keep thinking this inflation thing is lurking somewhere, but I've thought that for a solid decade now.  I think some of that is due to the upsurge in hydrocarbon production in the US.  The price of that gets into the production of a lot of stuff including fertilizer, ag, transport, steel, aluminum, paper, etc.

We had a paper plant that used cogen NG turbines to generate power and the exhaust gas was used to dry the paper (after a heat exchanger).  Drying paper is a big deal for paper makers, you start with a slurry that is about 0.1% pulp and end up with paper that is about 5% water.  There is some pretty neat technology in papermaking these days.




 

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