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This feels like a year OSU is eligible, but alas, it’ll go to Lovie or Fleck. 

the last couple games could have a huge swing

If Lovie beats Iowa, If Fleck does not win the West

This is exactly what I was thinking when I posted this.  These last two (or possibly three in some cases) games could swing this in a big way.  My thoughts on each of the plausible contenders:

P.J. Fleck, Minnesota:  Games remaining, @NU, vsUW:
IMHO, if the Gophers beat Wisconsin to get to the B1GCG, this award will go to Fleck.  Even if they lose the Wisconsin game, he'll have a case depending on how the others finish up.  

Lovie Smith, Illinois:  Games remaining, @IA, vsNU:
Smith's Illinois team already has one BIG scalp with the UW win and if they take down Iowa as well, that will make a very strong case for COTY.  

Tom Allen, Indiana:  Games remaining, vsM, @PU:
Tom Allen's Hoosiers achieved bowl eligibility in October which is a minor miracle in Bloomington.  The major weakness in Allen's case as compared to Fleck and Smith is that the Hoosiers lack a signature win.  Fleck/MN have PSU, Smith/IL have UW, Allen/IU have . . . a 4-6 Nebraska team?  I think that for Allen to be a serious contender the Hoosiers are going to have to beat the Wolverines this weekend.  

Paul Chryst, Wisconsin:  Games remaining, vs PU, @MN:
Chryst is hurt by the fact that Wisconsin has generally higher expectations that MN/IL/IU so finishing even with them isn't enough.  Chryst has to exceed their achievements significantly and I'm not honestly sure that is possible at this point but if IL loses to Iowa, IU loses to M, and the Badgers win out there would be at least a decent case for Chryst.  

James Franklin, Penn State:  Games remaining, @tOSU, vs RU:
Franklin has the same problem that Chryst has.  Expectations in Happy Valley are pretty high and the Nittany Lions already lost a game.  A win over Ohio State would help a lot but I don't know that it would be enough to surpass Smith, Allen, and the Chryst/Fleck winner.  

Fleck, Smith, Day...

If OSU wins out, Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, and Illinois doesn't beat Iowa, I think it could be Day. Probably won't be. But if OSU wrecks PSU and Michigan, I think it could be. Did anyone really expect OSU to be this good?

Agreed, nobody else worth a mention.

Minnesota has to at least reach Indy I would think, while Ohio State absolutely has to win out.  If those two things happen, I think Lovie is out.  I think Lovie only sneaks in if Bucky wins the division AND OSU drops a game.

This appears to reflect how teams did relative to expectations, no?

Minnesota +++
Indiana ++
Penn State +
Illinois +++
Ohio State +

Michigan -
Wisconsin +
Iowa +
Rutger --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most B1G teams have done better than expected.

This appears to reflect how teams did relative to expectations, no?

Minnesota +++
Indiana ++
Penn State +
Illinois +++
Ohio State +

Michigan -
Wisconsin +
Iowa +
Rutger --------------------------------------------------------------------------

Most B1G teams have done better than expected.

Only 9 teams?  Channeling the Big 12?

Not to criticize your list, but _______ has done exactly as expected, so can't be so many minuses.

Not according to my expectations.


They won't LEAVE!!!

I believe Iowa overall has equaled expectations but in Big Ten Play they so far they are slightly below expectations.

In pre-season Iowa fans expected Iowa to finish 9-3.  They were supposed to lose @ISU, @Mich, @Wiscy.  They weren't supposed to lose to PSU in Iowa City.
So at this point Iowa was supposed to be 7-3 overall but 5-2 in the Big Ten.

So far I would give Iowa a very small minus.