CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 18, 2019, 05:53:05 PM
-
Who should it be?
I know a lot of Buckeye fans like to complain that the HC in Columbus hasn't won this award in about 40 years. The award, as a practical matter, is a trophy given to the coach of the team that most exceeded expectations and expectations for the Buckeyes are usually sky high making it mathematically impossible to exceed them to any significant degree.
Each week in the Power Rankings thread I post a chart showing the difference between preseason Power Ranking and current Power Ranking. Based on that chart, I think we have a REALLY interesting race going on, here is the chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/lx0e0Bh.jpg)
In theory Illinois/Lovie Smith are in the lead. In practice, I think that Minnesota controls their own destiny. If the Gophers go to the B1GCG I think that P.J. Fleck is a shoe-in for this award. However, if Minnesota loses to Wisconsin then I think the coaches from Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and even Penn State have at least a chance. Thus, I see it as a five-way race with Minnesota in the drivers seat. Usually by this time of year it is a done deal or at least close to it.
What say you?
-
I'd vote for PJ today
-
Ryan Day would get my vote.
Harbaugh and Frost were picked to win their divisions this year, I believe.
-
Frost by the Writers
who, obviously, know nothing
media members and fake news
-
Fleck or Smith will probably get it.
-
the last couple games could have a huge swing
If Lovie beats Iowa, If Fleck does not win the West
-
Ryan Day would get my vote.
I'd rather him run the table - get snubbed and Ferentz get the honor
-
has that happened in the past?
-
Not once.
-
Ryan Day.
Even if Minnesota went undefeated, Ryan Day in his first year?
No-brainer IMO.
-
Fleck given Minnesota. Day was handed the keys to a formula one race car.
-
I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Coach Fitz will probably NOT win it this year. Other than that, I've got nuttin.
-
Fleck given Minnesota. Day was handed the keys to a formula one race car.
Youre right but Coach Day did quite a bit of off season work under the hood
-
Has there ever been a tie for coach of the year? Right now I think Fleck and Lovie are neck-and-neck.
-
Fleck given Minnesota. Day was handed the keys to a formula one race car.
There were many people who said he couldn't keep it going.
For the record, I was not one of those. He's impressed me from the start.
-
This feels like a year OSU is eligible, but alas, it’ll go to Lovie or Fleck.
-
This isn't an award I pay attention to for whatever reason. Generally, the Big Dogs won't get it for obvious reasons. Being recognized as a "good coach" should be sufficient without some award voted on by whoever.
-
the last couple games could have a huge swing
If Lovie beats Iowa, If Fleck does not win the West
This is exactly what I was thinking when I posted this. These last two (or possibly three in some cases) games could swing this in a big way. My thoughts on each of the plausible contenders:
P.J. Fleck, Minnesota: Games remaining, @NU, vsUW:
IMHO, if the Gophers beat Wisconsin to get to the B1GCG, this award will go to Fleck. Even if they lose the Wisconsin game, he'll have a case depending on how the others finish up.
Lovie Smith, Illinois: Games remaining, @IA, vsNU:
Smith's Illinois team already has one BIG scalp with the UW win and if they take down Iowa as well, that will make a very strong case for COTY.
Tom Allen, Indiana: Games remaining, vsM, @PU:
Tom Allen's Hoosiers achieved bowl eligibility in October which is a minor miracle in Bloomington. The major weakness in Allen's case as compared to Fleck and Smith is that the Hoosiers lack a signature win. Fleck/MN have PSU, Smith/IL have UW, Allen/IU have . . . a 4-6 Nebraska team? I think that for Allen to be a serious contender the Hoosiers are going to have to beat the Wolverines this weekend.
Paul Chryst, Wisconsin: Games remaining, vs PU, @MN:
Chryst is hurt by the fact that Wisconsin has generally higher expectations that MN/IL/IU so finishing even with them isn't enough. Chryst has to exceed their achievements significantly and I'm not honestly sure that is possible at this point but if IL loses to Iowa, IU loses to M, and the Badgers win out there would be at least a decent case for Chryst.
James Franklin, Penn State: Games remaining, @tOSU, vs RU:
Franklin has the same problem that Chryst has. Expectations in Happy Valley are pretty high and the Nittany Lions already lost a game. A win over Ohio State would help a lot but I don't know that it would be enough to surpass Smith, Allen, and the Chryst/Fleck winner.
-
Fleck, Smith, Day...
If OSU wins out, Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, and Illinois doesn't beat Iowa, I think it could be Day. Probably won't be. But if OSU wrecks PSU and Michigan, I think it could be. Did anyone really expect OSU to be this good?
-
Fleck, Smith, Day...
If OSU wins out, Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, and Illinois doesn't beat Iowa, I think it could be Day. Probably won't be. But if OSU wrecks PSU and Michigan, I think it could be. Did anyone really expect OSU to be this good?
Agreed, nobody else worth a mention.
Minnesota has to at least reach Indy I would think, while Ohio State absolutely has to win out. If those two things happen, I think Lovie is out. I think Lovie only sneaks in if Bucky wins the division AND OSU drops a game.
-
I believe if Wisconsin beats Minny then Paul Chryst should be be the front-runner for the COTY.
Wisconsin was so dominating so early in the season that people forget that pre-season expectations were actually low for Wisconsin this season.
Similarly, if Minny beats Wiscy, then Fleck should get the trophy.
Now if Lovie upsets Iowa, then that might be enough for Lovie to take it over Fleck or Chryst, but I have a hunch that Lovie's bubble is going burst in Iowa City this week.
Tom Allen deserves honorable mention but he really needs to beat one of the top teams to be considered a front-runner for the COTY.
Ryan Day is probably not getting enough credit for OSU's dominating performance, but if he wanted to compete for the COTY, he should have took the head coaching job at a different school than OSU.
Franklin deserves some credit too, but the only way he will even be considered is to beat OSU and win the Big Ten CCG. Even that might not be enough.
-
This appears to reflect how teams did relative to expectations, no?
Minnesota +++
Indiana ++
Penn State +
Illinois +++
Ohio State +
Michigan -
Wisconsin +
Iowa +
Rutger --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most B1G teams have done better than expected.
-
Most B1G teams have done better than expected.
:'(
-
This appears to reflect how teams did relative to expectations, no?
Minnesota +++
Indiana ++
Penn State +
Illinois +++
Ohio State +
Michigan -
Wisconsin +
Iowa +
Rutger --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most B1G teams have done better than expected.
Only 9 teams? Channeling the Big 12?
-
This appears to reflect how teams did relative to expectations, no?
Minnesota +++
Indiana ++
Penn State +
Illinois +++
Ohio State +
Michigan -
Wisconsin +
Iowa +
Rutger --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Most B1G teams have done better than expected.
Not to criticize your list, but Rutgers has done exactly as expected, so can't be so many minuses.
-
Not to criticize your list, but _______ has done exactly as expected, so can't be so many minuses.
Not according to my expectations.
They won't LEAVE!!!
-
Nebraska is worse than most expected. Maryland is, well, maybe slightly worse. MSU is worse, so is NW and Purdue, who folks thought might be 7-5 kinds of teams.
-
I believe Iowa overall has equaled expectations but in Big Ten Play they so far they are slightly below expectations.
In pre-season Iowa fans expected Iowa to finish 9-3. They were supposed to lose @ISU, @Mich, @Wiscy. They weren't supposed to lose to PSU in Iowa City.
So at this point Iowa was supposed to be 7-3 overall but 5-2 in the Big Ten.
So far I would give Iowa a very small minus.
-
I believe Iowa overall has equaled expectations but in Big Ten Play they so far they are slightly below expectations.
In pre-season Iowa fans expected Iowa to finish 9-3. They were supposed to lose @ISU, @Mich, @Wiscy. They weren't supposed to lose to PSU in Iowa City.
So at this point Iowa was supposed to be 7-3 overall but 5-2 in the Big Ten.
So far I would give Iowa a very small minus.
I guess that's based on original expectations, but I think PSU and Minnesota have been a lot better than expected, while Iowa might be about what they were expected to be, and perhaps slightly better.
SP+ rankings:
Home field should only be worth 3 points, and PSU is 8.5 SP+ points better than ISU, and perhaps 10 points better than you expected them to be preseason. So it really doesn't make sense to count PSU as the win and ISU as the loss with where things stand now.
If we just look at SP+, Iowa should be 6-4 with a loss to ISU as mentioned, so is doing one game better than predicted by that metric. You could even say that the Minnesota game was a tossup that they won, so 1.5 games above expectation. Minnesota I'm sure is another case where they have done much better than expected in the preseason. If you can't adjust your expectations based on PSU and Minny being much better than expected, then I guess for Iowa to achieve those results, they would've needed to be about 6 SP+ points better than they currently are, probably by being quite a bit better on offense and slightly better on defense. In which case, a loss to ISU would've probably made you sick with how good of a team Iowa would need to have.
I would argue that Iowa is playing above expectation then, because they are winning their tossup games and have been very competitive in games they were supposed to lose.
-
If your argument is that Iowa really is only #23, that does not help the argument that Iowa is exceeding expectations. In fact it helps the argument that Iowa is performing lower than expected.
-
Kirk will get it for earning another contract extension.
-
I'd say Fleck or Day. Fleck probably given the fact it's Minnesota. Still, what Day has done in year 1 while replacing a legend- ain't easy to do. Even if the roster is loaded with 5*'s and the QB that transferred in was the #1 recruit in the nation two classes ago. Flip a coin.
-
If your argument is that Iowa really is only #23, that does not help the argument that Iowa is exceeding expectations. In fact it helps the argument that Iowa is performing lower than expected.
SP+ doesn't take record into account, so even if Iowa was 5-5 (lost close ones to ISU and Minny), they'd be at roughly the same spot. I think based on the actual quality of their opponents, Iowa's expectation is 6-4, so 7-3 is slightly exceeding. Look at Washington as an example of grossly underachieving as they are 6-4, but ranked #12 by SP+. It makes sense, because they pass the eye test, but are piling up losses, including 2 bad ones to Cal and Stanford. They really should be no worse than 8-2, and likely should be 9-1.