2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[ELA]

Eh, I don't follow basketball very closely, but that seems like a lazy narrative.

Prior to last night, when is the last time the lost a game they were projected to win? At Nebraska in early January? Paging @medinabuckeye1

The problem is that he does it every year Iowa looks good in mid-February, so I won't stop believing it, til it happens.

Last year they were #20 in mid-February and lost 5 of 6 down the stretch
2016 they were #4 in mid-February, lost 4 of their final 5, then got upset in the 5-12 game in the BTT
2014 they were #15 on February 22, lost 5 of 6, and then got upset in the 6-11 game in the BTT

It just seems like every time Fran has appeared to have a good team with 2-3 weeks left, they have totally collapsed down the stretch

[ELA]

Saw this posted, just coincidental hot halves, or something with the rims?

MSU and PSU combined for 94 points on 14-27 three point shooting on one hoop last night; and 56 points on 1-22 three point shooting on the other.

[betarhoalphadelta]

The annoying thing about the NET rankings is that by beating Iowa at home last night , Purdue knocked Iowa's NET from 29 to 35.

So they picked up a great quadrant 1 road win, but in the same instant lost a previous quadrant 1 home win that is now only quadrant 2. 

[ELA]

The annoying thing about the NET rankings is that by beating Iowa at home last night , Purdue knocked Iowa's NET from 29 to 35.

So they picked up a great quadrant 1 road win, but in the same instant lost a previous quadrant 1 home win that is now only quadrant 2.

That's the downside to giving real time updates.

[847badgerfan]

Until December I don't think he had done much to warrant anyone questioning the direction of the program to be considered an assclown, I would call them fans concerned about long-term success.

I want to believe in Gard, but until the second half of this season if I knew a guy like John Beilein were available, I'd want to know if he was interested.

Certainly you won't move on from him now, but I don't want to overreact with recency bias either.

He took a team that was a mess when Bo walk out and took it to the Sweet 16. Bo did not help at all with his exit recruiting class(s). The staff has turned two kids (Trice and Ford) that nobody wanted into Big Ten players. The recruiting has been solid, and is moving even higher.

Yes, this season started off rough at 5-5. Losing Howard Moore and the NCAA stupidity with Potter had a lot to do with that. Injuries caused the tournament miss a couple of years ago. Blips on the long-term radar. How he, the staff and the players handled the King nonsense and losing their beloved trainer is beyond amazing. Through all of this, this is a team that can actually finish in 1st place. Who had that in January?

<<crickets>>

The program is on very solid ground. Another 20-year NCAA streak is upon us. Then Krabby or Tuck can take over.

[iahawk15]

The problem is that he does it every year Iowa looks good in mid-February, so I won't stop believing it, til it happens.

Last year they were #20 in mid-February and lost 5 of 6 down the stretch
2016 they were #4 in mid-February, lost 4 of their final 5, then got upset in the 5-12 game in the BTT
2014 they were #15 on February 22, lost 5 of 6, and then got upset in the 6-11 game in the BTT

It just seems like every time Fran has appeared to have a good team with 2-3 weeks left, they have totally collapsed down the stretch

Which is fine, but it brings me back to my original question. How does this year fit in to that?

They picked up one unexpected win and gave away one unexpected loss. Performing to expectation being classified as a collapse is something I'd expect to see on CycloneFanatic.com, but not elsewhere.

ETA: When Cook left early and JBo announced season-ending surgery, I had this team pegged around 12th in the B1G. An NIT bid seemed like a pipe dream. They've certainly surprised me, but at no point during the year did I think they were better than middle-of-the-pack.

[ELA]

It was more of an in game hot take, based on previous trends, than a well thought out dissertation.  I just thought, while watching, "this seems right"

[iahawk15]

It was more of an in game hot take, based on previous trends, than a well thought out dissertation.  I just thought, while watching, "this seems right"

Ha, well with that, I wholehartedly agree.

[JWilly86]

Blips on the long-term radar.

I agree with most of your takes, but I think as recently as 3 months ago it was fair to question which were blips and which were emerging trends. The last few months have yielded improved player development and it looks like the recruiting will be better, which is why I'm cautiously optimistic that things are going in the right direction. 

[847badgerfan]

I agree with most of your takes, but I think as recently as 3 months ago it was fair to question which were blips and which were emerging trends. The last few months have yielded improved player development and it looks like the recruiting will be better, which is why I'm cautiously optimistic that things are going in the right direction.

I'm buying S&P stocks, and I'm buying the Badgers.

[medinabuckeye1]

Prior to last night, when is the last time the lost a game they were projected to win? At Nebraska in early January? Paging @medinabuckeye1

You are correct.  Iowa now has two negative upsets:

• A road loss to Nebraska on January 7, and
• A home loss to Purdue last night.  

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't generally do mid-week updates to the projections but I am making an exception here for two reasons:

• It is close to the end of the season so it matters more, and
• All three of last night's results were "upsets" so there have been a lot of changes.  

The new projected final standings/BTT seeds are:

• 14-6/22-9 Michigan State
• 14-6/24-7 Maryland
• 13-7/21-10 Illinois
• 13-7/20-11 Wisconsin
• 12-8/22-9 Penn State
• 11-9/20-11 Iowa
• 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
• 10-10/19-12 Michigan
• 10-10/17-14 Purdue
• 10-10/19-12 Rutgers
• 10-10/20-11 Indiana
• 8-12/14-16 Minnesota
• 2-18/7-23 Northwestern
• 2-18/7-24 Nebraska

The tiebreakers:
For the two-way tie for 1st/2nd at 14-6 the first tiebreaker is H2H but they split the series with each team winning on the other team's court.  Thus, we move to the second tiebreaker, record against the two 13-7 teams:

• 3-1 Michigan State (played both twice, won both home games and won at IL)
• 2-1 Maryland (did not host Wisconsin, lost at Wisconsin and beat Illinois twice)

For the two-way tie for 3rd/4th at 13-7 the first tiebreaker is H2H.  They only played once, in Madison, and the Illini won.  

For the two-way tie for 6th/7th at 11-9 the first tiebreaker is H2H.  They only played once, in Iowa City, and the Hawkeyes won.  

For the four-way tie for 8th/9th/10th/11th the first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

• 5-0 Michigan:  Did not play in Bloomington, won in West Lafayette and Picastaway
• 3-3 Purdue:  Won in Bloomington, lost at home to Michigan
• 2-3 Rutgers:  Did not play in Bloomington, lost at home to Michigan
• 0-4 Indiana:  Did not host Michigan or Rutgers, lost at home to Purdue

For the two-way tie for 13th/14th at 2-18 the first tiebreaker is H2H.  They played twice and Northwestern won both games.  

Thus, the updated projected BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 11:

• #11 Indiana vs #14 Nebraska, 930 on BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Northwestern, 6 on BTN

Thursday, March 12:

• #5 Penn State vs MN/NU, 230 on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs IU/UNL, 9 on BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 630 on BTN
• #8 Michigan vs #9 Purdue, noon on BTN

Friday, March 13:

• #1 Michigan State vs M/PU, noon on BTN
• #2 Maryland vs tOSU/RU, 630 on BTN
• #3 Illinois vs IA/IU/UNL, 9 on BTN
• #4 Wisconsin vs PSU/MN/NU, 230 on BTN

Saturday, March 14:

• MSU/M/PU vs UW/PSU/MN/NU, 1 on CBS
• UMD/tOSU/RU vs IL/IA/IU/UNL, 330 on CBS

Sunday, March 15:

• MSU/M/PU/UW/PSU/MN/NU vs UMD/tOSU/RU/IL/IA/IU/UNL, 330 on CBS

[mcwterps1]

It's interesting how his teams are simultaneously bad in your view but still win a solid number of games, how they get worse as the season goes on in your read, but almost always win two thirds or better of their conference games. I'd assume the logic would be this team is too good to be this just good. (For reference, they're ranked because they have the 8th-best record among Power 5 teams, and that gets you ranked)

I think 847 answered that earlier. 

His scheduling is weak outside the conference, and his conference schedule isn't that great either. 

[SFBadger96]

I'm buying S&P stocks, and I'm buying the Badgers.

Next season the Badgers return almost everyone (Pritzl is the only loss), so they should be pretty solid. That said, who on this roster scares an opponent? That's the limitation for this team.

While I'm on board that Gard has done a great job turning things around--and did several years ago, too, I'm not yet sold on his ability to maintain and improve. That's what Bo did: sustained success and incremental improvement that led to two of the best Badger teams in the history of the program. That's a high bar, but I want to see Gard do this, too.

I'm right in the middle on him right now. Good job with the turnaround, for sure. But the King thing is on him, too--not just King. So I'm waiting and seeing--and happy to see what happens down the stretch. And if the team isn't good out of the gate next season, that's a bad sign for Gard.