2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

So UW is in an interesting spot re: schedule.

It is interesting for all except NU and UNL.

Usually at this point in the season I can do a pretty quick and easy best-case, worst-case on BTT seeding.

For NU: They get the 13 seed unless UNL wins at least one more of the remaining two games than they do, in that case, 14.

For UNL: They get the 14 seed unless they win at least one more of the remaining two games than NU, in that case, 13.


For UMD: If they win out, they get an outright regular season title and the #1 seed. If not, it gets really complicated.

If they go 1-1 they are guaranteed a double bye but IL and/or MSU and/or UW could tie them by winning out.

If they lose out then IL/MSU/UW could finish ahead of them by winning out or tie them by going 1-1 while PSU/IA could tie them by winning out.

For the other 11 teams it is REALLY complicated. Using your Badgers as an example:

Best-case: If they win out they finish 14-6 and are guaranteed a double bye and could win or share the league title.

Worst-case: If they lose out they finish 12-8 and potentially tied for as bad as seventh in the league.

My Buckeyes are right in the middle at 10-8.
Best-case: 12-8 and tied with IL/MSU/UW/IA/PSU for 2/3/4/5/6/7.

Worst-case: 10-10 and tied with IU/PU for 9/10/11. The Buckeyes would finish between the two Indiana schools in that tie so they are guaranteed not to play on Wednesday.

[fezzador]

I'd really like to see them get off that 8-9 line and get to the 7, or even 6. Not sure 6 is possible without a run to Saturday in the B1G tourney.

I dunno, for UW maybe getting an 8 seed would be better than getting a 7.  I think they'd fare better against Kansas, San Diego State, or Baylor than they would against Duke, Kentucky, or FSU (I know Duke and UK aren't currently projected as 2-seeds, but I can easily see the selection committee bump them up to the 2-line for brand name alone)

[847badgerfan]

Honestly it may not matter anyway. 

Last year UW got a 5, and was given the pleasure of playing a white-hot Oregon team. 

In San Jose. 

[NickSmith4Three]

Underwood extended to 2026.  4.0 million by the 2025-2026 season.

[MaximumSam]

Underwood extended to 2026.  4.0 million by the 2025-2026 season.

Well deserved

[847badgerfan]

From last Spring, prior to Juwan Howard coming to Michigan to make $2,000,000 per year.

• Chris Holtmann, Ohio State – $7,149,849* (3rd nationally)
• Tom Izzo, Michigan State – $4,359,979 (4th)
• John Beilein, Michigan – $3,370,000 (9th)
• Archie Miller, Indiana – $3,200,000 (10th)
• Brad Underwood, Illinois – $2,755,450 (18th)
• Mark Turgeon, Maryland – $2,700,915 (20th)
• Matt Painter, Purdue – $2,478,795 (29th)
• Tim Miles, Nebraska – $2,250,080 (33rd)
• Greg Gard, Wisconsin – $2,250,000 (34th)
• Fran McCaffery, Iowa – $2,225,000 (37th)
• Richard Pitino, Minnesota – $1,957,753 (49th)
• Steve Pikiell, Rutgers  -$1,600,000 (56th)
• Chris Collins, Northwestern – $1,434,725 (60th)

* Received $3,920,000 for buyout from Butler.

[847badgerfan]

Just saw Lunardi has his new seeding up.

Maryland is a 2 (#7 overall) in the South. MSU is a 3 (#12) in the West. Wisconsin is a 4 (#16) in the Midwest. 

OSU is a 5, but doesn't say where. Just that they are #17.

[ELA]

Just saw Lunardi has his new seeding up.

Maryland is a 2 (#7 overall) in the South. MSU is a 3 (#12) in the West. Wisconsin is a 4 (#16) in the Midwest.

OSU is a 5, but doesn't say where. Just that they are #17.

MSU was a 4 seed in his morning update and Wisconsin was a 5.  Must've had a good practice.

[NickSmith4Three]

Underwood extended to 2026.  4.0 million by the 2025-2026 season.

According to Illinois, this deal...

- extends every time Underwood makes an NCAA Tournament, potentially all the way to 2030
- increases staff pool by 25 percent
- All assistants extended through 2022, along with Adam Fletcher
- moves Underwood current buyout to $8 million

[medinabuckeye1]

There were two upsets this weekend, Michigan State's win at Maryland and Northwestern's win at Nebraska.  

Both of those kept things more interesting than they otherwise would have been.  Maryland would have clinched at least a share of the regular season title and a double-bye with a win.  With their loss, IL, MSU, UW, PSU, and IA are still at least mathematically in the race.  

Nebraska would have nearly cliched the #13 seed with a win.  With their loss, Northwestern is now more likely than not to get that.  

Updated projected final standings/BTT seeds and match-ups:

• 15-5/25-6 Maryland
• 13-7/20-11 Wisconsin
• 13-7/23-8 Penn State
• 13-7/21-10 Michigan State
• 13-7/21-10 Illinois
• 12-8/21-10 Iowa
• 11-9/21-10 Ohio State
• 10-10/19-12 Michigan
• 10-10/20-11 Indiana
• 9-11/18-13 Rutgers
• 9-11/16-15 Purdue
• 8-12/14-16 Minnesota
• 2-18/7-23 Northwestern
• 2-18/7-24 Nebraska

The tiebreakers are:
For the four-way tie for 2nd-5th at 13-7 the first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H:

• They are all .500.  MSU is 3-3 while the other three are 2-2.  There were numerous games not played and upsets but they all balanced out so we move to the next tiebreaker:

The second tiebreaker is record against the best team(s) in the conference, 15-5 Maryland:

• 1-0 Wisconsin (no game in College Park)
• 1-0 Penn State (no game in College Park)
• 2-2 Michigan State (won in College Park, lost in East Lansing)
• 0-2 Illinois 

Thus, MSU get the #4 seed, Illinois gets the #5 seed, while UW and PSU move on to record against Iowa:

• 1-0 Wisconsin (no game in Iowa City)
• 1-1 Penn State

Thus UW gets the #2 seed and PSU gets the #3 seed.  


For the two-way tie for 8th/9th at 10-10 (only determines jersey color in the 8/9 game) the first tiebreaker is H2H.  They only played once, in Ann Arbor, and Michigan won.  Thus Michigan gets the #8 seed and home jerseys in the 8/9 game.  

For the two-way tie for 10th/11th at 9-11 the first tiebreaker is H2H.  Rutgers already won in Picastaway, Purdue is projected to win in West Lafayette.  Thus we move to record against the best team in the conference, 15-5 Maryland.  Both are projected to go 0-season against Maryland so we move to record against the four 13-7 teams:

• 3-4 Rutgers
• 2-4 Purdue

Thus Rutgers gets the #10 seed and does not have to play until Thursday.  Purdue gets the #11 seed and a game on Wednesday.  


Thus, the BTT match-ups would be:
Wednesday, March 11:

• #11 Purdue vs #14 Nebraska, 930 on BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 Northwestern, 6 on BTN

Thursday, March 12:

• #5 Illinois vs MN/NU, 230 on BTN
• #6 Iowa vs PU/UNL, 9 on BTN
• #7 Ohio State vs #10 Rutgers, 630 on BTN
• #8 Michigan vs #9 Indiana, noon on BTN

Friday, March 13:

• #1 Maryland vs M/IU, noon on BTN
• #2 Wisconsin vs tOSU/RU, 630 on BTN
• #3 Penn State vs IA/PU/UNL, 9 on BTN
• #4 Michigan State vs IL/MN/NU, 230 on BTN

Saturday, March 14:

• UMD/M/IU vs MSU/IL/MN/NU, 1 on CBS
• UW/tOSU/RU vs PSU/IA/PU/UNL, 330 on CBS

Sunday, March 15:

• UMD/M/IU/MSU/IL/MN/NU vs UW/tOSU/RU/PSU/IA/PU/UNL, 330 on CBS

Even this late in the season, this is STILL very fluid because the teams remain very bunched up.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Of all the seeds, I think the one I am most confident of (other than Nebraska/Northwestern) is Ohio State's.  

The Buckeyes are alone in 7th place but they are within mathematical range of:

• three teams tied for 2nd/3rd/4th at 12-6
• two teams tied for 5th/6th at 11-7
• two teams tied for 8th/9th at 9-9
• two teams tied for 10th/11th at 8-10

In theory Ohio State could finish anywhere from a tie for 2nd to a tie for 11th.  In practice I think this is fairly unlikely.  The reason I am so confident that Ohio State will be the #7 seed is that they lose most ties against teams ahead of them and win most ties against teams behind them.  Thus:

• If the Buckeyes finish well, they'll probably just get into a tie that they will lose and still get the 7th seed.  
• If the Buckeyes stumble they'll probably just get into a tie that they will win and still get the 7th seed.  

It is NOT a mathematical lock so don't take it to the bank, but I feel fairly confident that Ohio State will be the #7 seed.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Can Minnesota make the NCAA Tournament without winning the BTT?

I actually still think that they can.  They are currently below .500 at 13-15 but their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be:

• Win at Indiana this week to improve to 8-11/14-15
• Beat Nebraska at home this weekend to improve to 9-11/15-15

If they do that they *MIGHT* not have to play on Wednesday in the BTT.  It would depend on whether IU wins their other game and how M, RU, and PU finish.  For the sake of this exercise I will assume that they still have to play on Wednesday in the BTT:

• Pick up a low-quality win on Wednesday in the BTT to move to 16-15 overall and 10-11 in B1G games
• Pick up a quality win on Thursday in the BTT to move to 17-15 overall and 11-11 in B1G games
• Pick up another quality win on Friday in the BTT to move to 18-15 overall and 12-11 in B1G games
• Pick up yet another quality win in the semi-final on Saturday to move to 19-15 overall and 13-11 in B1G games
• Lose the B1GCG on Sunday to finish 19-16 overall and 13-12 in B1G games.  

I *THINK* that would get them in.  

[847badgerfan]

According to Illinois, this deal...

- extends every time Underwood makes an NCAA Tournament, potentially all the way to 2030
- increases staff pool by 25 percent
- All assistants extended through 2022, along with Adam Fletcher
- moves Underwood current buyout to $8 million

I sincerely hope nothing comes of the FBI shoe stuff that went on at oSu. Probably nothing there, at oSu, or the NCAA would have already slammed them. Kansas, on the other hand...

[847badgerfan]

Can Minnesota make the NCAA Tournament without winning the BTT?

I actually still think that they can.  They are currently below .500 at 13-15 but their best-case-scenario without winning the BTT would be:

• Win at Indiana this week to improve to 8-11/14-15
• Beat Nebraska at home this weekend to improve to 9-11/15-15

If they do that they *MIGHT* not have to play on Wednesday in the BTT.  It would depend on whether IU wins their other game and how M, RU, and PU finish.  For the sake of this exercise I will assume that they still have to play on Wednesday in the BTT:

• Pick up a low-quality win on Wednesday in the BTT to move to 16-15 overall and 10-11 in B1G games
• Pick up a quality win on Thursday in the BTT to move to 17-15 overall and 11-11 in B1G games
• Pick up another quality win on Friday in the BTT to move to 18-15 overall and 12-11 in B1G games
• Pick up yet another quality win in the semi-final on Saturday to move to 19-15 overall and 13-11 in B1G games
• Lose the B1GCG on Sunday to finish 19-16 overall and 13-12 in B1G games. 

I *THINK* that would get them in. 

piTINo spelled backwards is oNITip.