Tier update:
Here is what I have right now:
- Maryland (-1, +1)
- Penn State+2 (+3, -1), Wisconsin+1 (+2, -1), Michigan State+1 (+2, -1), Illinois+1 (+3, -2)
- Iowa (+1, -1), Rutgers (no upsets), Minnesota (+1, -1), Indiana-1 , Ohio State-1 (+1, -2), Purdue-2 (+1, -3), Michigan-3
- blank
- Nebraska+2, Northwestern (no upsets)
The upsets so far have been:

Teams not within +/-1:
+2 Penn State:
The difference between tier-2 and tier-1 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams. For PSU those are:
- @M, won
- @PU, won
- @tOSU, lost
- @RU, lost
- @MN, lost
- @IU, 2/23
- @IA, 2/29
They are 2-3 with two more to play. They also have two other upsets that would be upsets either way:
- A home loss to Wisconsin
- A road win over Michigan State
I don't think we should move them up yet, but they should be considered close to moving up because they seem to be improving. Here is the timing of the seven games that could be considered upsets for PSU:
- 12/7 lost at Ohio State
- 1/7 lost at Rutgers
- 1/11 lost at home to Wisconsin
- 1/15 lost at Minnesota
- 1/22 won at Michigan
- 2/4 won at Michigan State
- 2/11 won at Purdue
+2 Nebraska:
The difference between tier-5 and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-3 teams. For UNL those are:
- vMN, not played
- vIA, won
- vPU, won
- vRU, lost
- vIU, lost
- vM, lost
- vtOSU, 2/27
They are 2-3 with one more to play. I think they need to stay where they are and we should chalk up their positive upsets simply to the fact that their underlying projection is so abysmal (1-19) that they have LOTS of chances for positive variance.
-3 Michigan:
The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-2 and road games against tier-5. For M those are:
- @NU, won
- @UNL, won
- vMSU, won
- vPSU, lost
- vIL, lost
- vUW, 2/27
They are 3-2 with one more to play.
-2 Purdue:
The difference between tier-3 and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-2 and road games against tier-5. For PU those are:
- @NU, won
- vMSU, won
- vUW, won
- vIL, lost
- vPSU, lost
- @UNL, lost
They are 3-3. They should stay where they are because their other upset was a road win at Indiana so if we moved them down they would be +4 rather than -2.