2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[Brutus Buckeye]

[ELA]

Just in case losing twice because of Tillman's inability to make layups wasn't bad enough, now it's because Winston gags a game tying FT.  This is as mentally weak a team as we've had since maybe 2011

[Big Beef Tacosupreme]

So here's some quick thoughts on Penn State basketball.

1.  For the first time since I have been watching this team, they have real depth across the board.  It's crazy what a difference it makes.
2.  Having a senior laden team has really helped in close game situations.
3.  This team is legit good.  Not "if they play well they can win" good, they are a legit top 25 team.
4.  The B1G is so good this year.  It might be the strongest from top to bottom that I have ever seen it.
5.  I know it is B1G basketball, but I have to wonder if this physical style of play is going to fly come tourney time.
6.  It is pretty fun to have a basketball team.  

[ELA]

So here's some quick thoughts on Penn State basketball.

5.  I know it is B1G basketball, but I have to wonder if this physical style of play is going to fly come tourney time.

FWIW, in the tourney, the refs typically allow MORE contact

[medinabuckeye1]

With two upsets last night there are some significant changes to the projections and I'll cover that next.  The other issue is what to do with the teams that are straying too far from the projection.  Each team is within +/-1 except:

+3 Illinois:  The Illini are in tier-2 and the difference between that and tier-1 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams.  For Illinois those are:

• @ IU, not played this year
• @ MN, not played this year
• @ M, won
• @ RU, 2/15
• @ tOSU, 3/5

So they are 1-0 with two more games to be played.  

+2 Nebraska:  The Cornhuskers are in tier-5 and the difference between that and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-3.  For Nebraska those are:

• vs MN, not played this year
• vs IU, lost
• vs RU, lost
• vs M, lost
• vs tOSU, 2/27

So they are 0-3 with one more game to be played.  

-2 Michigan State:  The Spartans are in tier-1 and the difference between that and tier-2 is the projected result in road games against tier-3 teams.  For Michigan State those are:

• @ tOSU, not played this year
• @ RU, not played this year
• @ MN, won
• @ IU, lost
• @ M, 2/8

So they are 1-1 with one more game to be played and that game will be this weekend.  

-2 Purdue:  The Boilermakers are in tier-2 and the difference between that and tier-3 is the projected result in home games against tier-1 and road games against tier-4.  For Purdue those are:

• vs UMD, not played this year
• vs MSU, won

So they are 1-0 with no more games to be played.  

-3 Michigan:  The Wolverines are in tier-3 and the difference between that and tier-4 is the projected result in home games against tier-2 and road games against tier-5.  For Michigan those are:

• vs IA, won
• vs PU, won
• @ UNL, won 
• vs IL, lost
• vs PSU, lost
• @ NU, 2/12
• vs UW, 2/27

So they are 3-2 with two more games to be played including next week at Northwestern.  

My thoughts:  I don't think we should make any changes yet.  

[847badgerfan]

FWIW, in the tourney, the refs typically allow MORE contact

Typically, yes. But not if your team is playing Dook, et al. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Mini-update to the projections (I will do the full update after tonight's games):
 
Projected final standings/BTT seeds:

• 15-5/25-6 Maryland
• 14-6/22-9 Illinois
• 13-7/23-8 Penn State
• 13-7/21-10 Michigan State
• 12-8/19-12 Wisconsin
• 11-9/20-11 Iowa
• 10-10/19-12 Rutgers
• 10-10/20-11 Ohio State
• 10-10/17-14 Purdue
• 10-10/16-14 Minnesota
• 10-10/20-11 Indiana
• 8-12/17-14 Michigan
• 3-17/8-23 Nebraska
• 1-19/6-24 Northwestern

The tiebreakers:
For the two way tie between PSU and MSU at 13-7 for 3rd/4th:

• The first tiebreaker is H2H and PSU just won in East Lansing so they are projected to go 2-0.  

For the five-way tie between RU, tOSU, PU, MN, and IU at 10-10 for 7th/8th/9th/10th/11th:
The first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H2H:

• Rutgers is projected to go 3-2:  This is because they do not host tOSU or visit IU or MN.  
• Purdue is projected to go 3-3:  This is because they do not host tOSU nor visit MN.  
• Minnesota is projected to go 3-3:  This is because they do not host PU nor RU and they upset tOSU in Columbus.  
• Ohio State is projected to go 3-3:  This is because they do not visit PU or RU but they got upset at home by MN.  
• Indiana is projected to go 3-4:  This is because they do not host Rutgers.  

My understanding of the B1G's tiebreaker procedure is that this means that Rutgers wins the tie and gets the #7 seed while Indiana loses the tie and gets the #11 seed.  The other three (tOSU, PU, MN) move on to record against the best team(s) in the league sequentially until the tie is broken.  Thus:

• The next tiebreaker is record against Maryland.  All three are projected to go 0-season against the Terps.  
• The next tiebreaker is record against Illinois.  Ohio State is projected to go 1-0 (they do not visit Champaign).  Minnesota and Purdue are projected to go 0-season against the Illini (PU because they lost at home to IL and MN because they do not host the Illini).  Thus, tOSU gets the #8 seed while PU and MN move on to record against MSU:
• The next tiebreaker is record against MSU.  The Boilermakers only play MSU once and they won.  The Gophers are projected to go 0-season against the Spartans.  

As always, I want to note that this is EXTREMELY fluid due to the presence of the log-jam of 11 teams all projected to finish within five games of each other and eight teams within three games of each other.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

My thoughts:  I don't think we should make any changes yet. 

I don't think moving Nebraska makes sense. As you point out, they're currently 0-3 in games that they should have won if they were tier 4. Moving them up wouldn't change their +2 positive upsets, it would just give them 3 negative upsets. I think you chalk Nebraska up to being a blind squirrel that found a few nuts. 

I want to see what Purdue does tonight. Obviously moving them to tier 3 doesn't change either of their -2 negative upsets. If they lose to Iowa, they'd be -3. If they move to tier 3 it doesn't solve any of those upsets, but gives them a positive upset vsMSU to get them back to "only" -2. 

This year is just a big mess.

[847badgerfan]

This year is just a big mess.

Yes, it sure is. The other thing is that I don't think the conference is very good.

I mean, if you put 12 teams in, as some have suggested, you might well be looking at 0-12 - unless all 12 teams get to play at home.

[medinabuckeye1]

I don't think moving Nebraska makes sense. As you point out, they're currently 0-3 in games that they should have won if they were tier 4. Moving them up wouldn't change their +2 positive upsets, it would just give them 3 negative upsets. I think you chalk Nebraska up to being a blind squirrel that found a few nuts.

Agreed, and as you and I have discussed before, Nebraska's original projection was 1-19 so they have 19 opportunities for positive variance and only one opportunity for negative variance.  With 19 chances for upset wins they were bound to get some.  

I want to see what Purdue does tonight. Obviously moving them to tier 3 doesn't change either of their -2 negative upsets. If they lose to Iowa, they'd be -3. If they move to tier 3 it doesn't solve any of those upsets, but gives them a positive upset vsMSU to get them back to "only" -2.

I get what you are saying, but I generally try to arrange the tiers so as to minimize the total number of upsets not to get a single team as close to even as possible.  Using Purdue as an example, where they are in tier-2 they have two upsets:

• A road loss to Nebraska, and
• A home loss to Illinois

If we moved them to tier-3 they would have three total upsets:

• A home win over MSU, and
• A road loss to Nebraska, and
• A home loss to Illinois

That would move Purdue to -1 instead of -2, but it would also move MSU to -3 instead of -2.  Ie, Purdue would be closer to even but MSU would be further from even.  Instead, I just look at total upsets.  In tier-2 Purdue has two upsets, in tier-3 they would have three.  Thus, they stay in tier-2.  

This year is just a big mess.

Yes, it sure is. 

I disagree with both of you.  We have had less upsets this year (as a percentage of games played) than usual.  Maybe it just seems like a mess because your teams have been involved in more upsets than most.  Total upsets per B1G team:

• Zero:  UMD, RU, NU
• One:  IA, IU, MN
• Two:  MSU(-2), PU(-2), UNL(+2)
• Three:  IL(+3), PSU(+2,-1), UW(+2,-1), tOSU(+1,-2), M(-3)

Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are the real odd-balls here because their upsets go both ways:

• How can PSU be good enough to win in Ann Arbor and East Lansing yet bad enough to lose at home to Wisconsin?
• How can Wisconsin be good enough to win in State College and Columbus yet bad enough to lose at home to Illinois?  
• How can Ohio State be good enough to win in Ann Arbor yet bad enough to lose at home to both UW and MN?  

It isn't any messier than most years.  Actually, it is less messy than usual.  The bottom line is that upsets happen.  Teams have bad shooting nights (or months in the case of tOSU).  Teams have good shooting nights.  Upsets happen.  

The other thing is that I don't think the conference is very good.

I mean, if you put 12 teams in, as some have suggested, you might well be looking at 0-12 - unless all 12 teams get to play at home.

This I completely disagree with.  The conference is getting major respect nationally because overall the conference did very well in the OOC.  I think the conference is very good.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

I disagree with both of you.  We have had less upsets this year (as a percentage of games played) than usual.  Maybe it just seems like a mess because your teams have been involved in more upsets than most. 

It isn't any messier than most years.  Actually, it is less messy than usual.  The bottom line is that upsets happen.

Actually I don't necessarily think this year is a mess because of the number of upsets.

I think it's a mess because home-road splits are much more prominent than usual. And I think the reason for that is that teams are much more "bunched" than usual. Most years you have a few REALLY good teams, a few really bad ones, and then stratification in the middle. This year you have pretty much every team is vulnerable to any other. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Actually I don't necessarily think this year is a mess because of the number of upsets.

I think it's a mess because home-road splits are much more prominent than usual. And I think the reason for that is that teams are much more "bunched" than usual. Most years you have a few REALLY good teams, a few really bad ones, and then stratification in the middle. This year you have pretty much every team is vulnerable to any other.

That is definitely true.  The middle 10 teams (all except UMD, MSU, UNL, and NU) are all projected to win the home games against one-another.  They are also all good enough to win any of those games on the road on a good night and simultaneously bad enough to lose any of those games at home on a bad night.  

There is a LOT less separation than usual.  

[847badgerfan]

I'm not talking about the tiers being a mess. They aren't, because we make them up as we go along.

[847badgerfan]

December 23: