2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[medinabuckeye1]

I am currently entering the B1G games into my spreadsheet to get the projections all completed. 

Here is what I have 1/4 of the way through the season (35 of 140 games played, as of end of 1/11/20):

• 5-0 MSU
• 5-0 UMD
• 4-1 tOSU
• 3-2 PU
• 3-2 UW
• 3-3 IL
• 2-2 M
• 2-3 IA
• 2-3 PSU
• 2-3 IU
• 1-4 MN
• 1-4 RU
• 1-4 UNL
• 1-4 NU

Projected standings almost exactly half way through the season (69 of 70 games played, as of end of 1/30/20):

• 9-1 MSU
• 9-1 UMD
• 8-1 tOSU
• 7-3 PU
• 6-3 M
• 6-4 IA
• 5-5 UW
• 5-5 IL
• 4-6 RU
• 3-7 IU
• 3-6 PSU
• 2-9 MN
• 1-9 UNL
• 1-9 NU

Saturday, February 15 certainly projects to be an interesting day of B1G Basketball:

• 13-1 MSU hosts 11-2 UMD
• 10-3 tOSU hosts 11-3 PU

The projection is that MSU wins and effectively locks up the Regular Season Championship and the #1 seed in the BTT with at least a two-and-a-half game lead on UMD/tOSU/PU.  With four losses the tOSU/PU loser would likely be practically eliminated either way. 

Projected standings exactly 3/4 of the way through the season (105 of 140 games played, as of end of 2/19/20):

• 14-1 MSU
• 12-3 UMD
• 11-3 tOSU
• 11-4 M
• 11-5 PU
• 9-6 UW
• 8-7 Iowa
• 7-8 IL
• 7-8 PSU
• 5-11 RU
• 4-11 IU
• 4-11 MN
• 1-13 UNL
• 1-14 NU

Heading into the final weekend and each teams' final game:

• 17-2 MSU, vstOSU
• 16-3 tOSU, atMSU
• 15-4 UMD, vsM
• 14-5 PU, vsRU
• 13-6 M, atUMD
• 12-7 UW, atIU
• 10-9 IL, vsIA
• 9-10 IA, atIL
• 8-11 PSU, atNU
• 6-13 IU, vsUW
• 5-14 RU, atPU
• 4-15 MN, vsUNL
• 2-17 UNL, atMN
• 2-17 NU, vsPSU

Wow, that would be a heck of a final weekend:

• The projected top-2 teams (MSU, tOSU) play each other and it is their only game of the year so it would be for the #1 seed in the BTT. 
• #3 Maryland couldn't catch MSU but they do have a tiebreaker over tOSU and tOSU has to go to East Lansing so the Terps would likely be playing for the #2 seed. 
• #4 PU is the odd team out with what should be an easy game hosting Rutgers. 
• #5 M couldn't realistically catch PU but they do have UW nipping at their heels. 
• #6 UW could potentially catch Michigan but would lose that tie anyway. 
• #7 and #8 (IL and IA) would be playing for the #7 seed.  Illinois would get it with a win.  If Iowa won it would create a tie that Iowa would probably win. 
• #9 PSU could potentially move into at least a tie for #8 with a win while a loss would leave them at #9. 
• #10 IU is probably locked in because they can't catch #9 and #11 could only catch them by winning in Mackey. 
• #11 RU might fall into a tie for 11th/12th with a loss.  That determines who they would play on Wednesday of the BTT. 
• #12 MN would likely move into a tie for 11th with a win but they would lose that tie. 
• #13 Nebraska or #14 Northwestern would likely stay out of last place with a win. 

[medinabuckeye1]

Projected final standings, BTT seeds, and match-ups for the BTT in Indianapolis:

• 18-2 Michigan State
• 16-4 Maryland (wins tiebreaker over tOSU based on record against MSU, tOSU only plays MSU in East Lansing)
• 16-4 Ohio State
• 15-5 Purdue
• 13-7 Michigan
• 12-8 Wisconsin
• 11-9 Illinois
• 9-11 Iowa (wins tiebreaker over PSU based on record against M, PSU only plays M in Ann Arbor)
• 9-11 Penn State
• 7-13 Indiana
• 5-15 Rutgers (wins tiebreaker over MN based on H2H, no game in Minneapolis)
• 5-15 Minnesota
• 2-18 Nebraska/Northwestern*
• 2-18 Nebraska/Northwestern*

I can't break this tie.  The first tiebreaker is H2H but they play each other twice with each team projected to win the home game.  The next tiebreaker is record against the best team in the league, then the next, etc.  That is tied throughout.  They are both 0-season against all except the 5-15 teams and 1-2 against the 5-15 teams because they each missed a home game against one of the 5-15 teams.  The next tiebreaker is winning % against all D1 opponents so it would be decided by that.  

BTT match-ups in Indianapolis:
Wednesday, March 11, 2020:

• #11 Rutgers vs #14 NU/UNL, 9pm, BTN
• #12 Minnesota vs #13 NU/UNL, 630pm, BTN

Thursday, March 12, 2020:

• #5 Michigan vs MN/NU/UNL, 3pm, BTN
• #6 Wisconsin vs RU/NU/UNL, 930pm, BTN
• #7 Illinois vs #10 Indiana, 7pm, BTN
• #8 Iowa vs #9 Penn State, 1230pm, BTN 

Friday, March 13, 2020:

• #1 Michigan State vs IA/PSU, 1230pm, BTN
• #2 Maryland vs IL/IU, 7pm, BTN
• #3 Ohio State vs UW/RU/NU/UNL, 930pm, BTN
• #4 Purdue vs M/MN/NU/UNL, 3pm, BTN

Saturday, March 14, 2020:

• MSU/IA/PSU vs PU/M/MN/NU/UNL, 1pm, CBS
• UMD/IL/IU vs tOSU/UW/RU/NU/UNL, 330pm, CBS

Sunday, March 15, 2020:

• MSU/IA/PSU/PU/M/MN/NU/UNL vs UMD/IL/IU/tOSU/UW/RU/NU/UNL, 330pm, CBS

Note, since I KNOW @Brutus Buckeye will ask:  In this projection the only way Ohio State could play Michigan in the BTT would be in the CG on Sunday because they are on opposite sides of the bracket.  

[medinabuckeye1]

Very cool.  If I had to guess I have a hard time seeing the teams at the top doing that well. May be more of a mushy middle this year.

I think you are probably right but for another reason as well.  Typically, the teams at the top don't do quite as well as projected and the teams at the bottom don't do quite as poorly as projected.  This is basically just for the statistical reason that a team projected to go 18-2 (MSU) has 18 opportunities to "blow" a game they "should" win and only two opportunities to win a game they "should" lose.  Conversely, a team projected to go 2-18 (UNL, NU) has 18 opportunities to win a game they "should" lose and only two opportunities to "blow" a game they "should" win.  

[Brutus Buckeye]

Where would the Bearcats slot into the tier system; hypothetically speaking?

[MaximumSam]

Where would the Bearcats slot into the tier system; hypothetically speaking?

Probably tier 3. They are 24th on KenPom, below 17th Maryland and ahead of 30th Michigan.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue freshmen SF Mason Gillis and G Brandon Newman to redshirt this year. 

[MaximumSam]

It's brick city in Columbus

[MaximumSam]

Not a game you'd tell your mother about but the Bucks get a win

[Brutus Buckeye]

Loving these season openers vs the Bearcats. Really gets me exited for game 1.

[TyphonInc]

Loving these season openers vs the Bearcats. Really gets me exited for game 1.

Most teams lose when they don't score for the 1st seven and half minutes.
Really helps when the opposing teams super star is silent for the 2nd half.

[MaximumSam]

Well that put the ugh in ugly.  At one point in the first half, the Bucks has 0 points and were in the bonus.  Anyways:

Kaleb Wesson had a rough game.  Cincy had two seven footers who were more or less banging him every time he got in the paint, which led to a lot of fouls and no points.  He did go 2/3 from three, which was very helpful to the cause.  That can be a big part of his game, especially against opponents with lots of size.  He also had 11 rebounds.

Kyle Young was the player of the game.  His first double double with 14 points and 13 rebounds pm 6/7 shooting.  Still no sign of a jump shot, but he was able to make some moves to the basket so not all of his points were garbageman quality.  But he's absolutely a garbageman.

CJ Walker and DJ Carton were ok.  Carton got more minutes and at times they were on the floor together.  Both seemed a little unsure of how to get into the offense and they both turned the ball over 4 times.  

Luther Muhammad was mostly silent on offense but did a good job defending.  Really the whole team did well on defense - the Bearcats shot 33% and 19% from three.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

Purdue obviously has a lot of pieces, but with Carsen and Cline basically being SUCH a huge part of the team's offensive identity, a lot of people don't really know what to expect this year. I'm guessing that most of you didn't spend your evening scouting Purdue against UW-Green Bay, given that it was about a 23 point spread and Purdue won by 22...

So parts of it kinda played out to expectation. 

One late scratch was Sasha Stefanovic, who has a [reportedly] minor foot/leg injury. It's not expected at this point to impact the team going forward. He's a maybe for Saturday vs Texas, but expected to return quickly. 

The Good

• Jahaad Proctor: The High Point graduate transfer was largely an unknown. He was Carsen-level usage numbers at High Point, clearly the primary guard. But even though he'd played well in High Points games against P5 competition, it was unclear how his game would translate. The good news is that he looked stellar. The most impressive thing was his BBIQ. He seemed to have great understanding of when to push to the basket, when it wasn't there, when to gather and pass out to the wing. I realize it's against low competition, but he absolutely looked like he meshed well with the team and belonged on the floor. And he spent a lot of time there--logging 38 minutes.
• Haarms from downtown! Matt Haarms was 2 of 2 from long range, bringing an aspect to this offense that it will need to spread the floor. He also had an overall dominant game, but that should be expected against a mid-major team without a player over 6'9" on their roster.
• Nojel has a jump shot?? Okay, not exactly a *great* jump shot, but he showed a little mid-range jumper and hit a few of them. Again, for this offense, he needs to be at least able to score. If he's a threat, it makes Painter's ability to set lineups much better. 
• Nojel also looks STOUT. He's always been a bigger guy, now listed at 6'7" and 225#. But he looks absolutely ripped, and looks like he's going to have some post-up game on smaller guards. He can be a difference maker by having guard quickness and skills and forward size. 
• Eric Hunter is a scorer: Last year, Hunter was the backup PG behind Eastern. He was a pleasant surprise as a defender, but really didn't participate on offense. As fans, we all thought that was odd, as I believe he is the 7th-leading career all-time scorer in Indiana HS basketball. One of the concerns coming into the year is that we wanted both Hunter at the 2 guard spot with Eastern running the point, as it's a GREAT defensive lineup. 
• Wheeler: At 6'9" with leaping ability, Wheeler is a player unlike what we've really ever seen in West Lafayette. He's a RS soph, and looks to be finally showing multi-level skills. He nearly pulled down a double-double with 10 points and 9 rebounds, and oddly I almost forgot to mention him because it was such a "quiet" game stuffing the stat sheet. 

The Bad

• Feeding the post: We couldn't feed the post. Haarms scored 16 and Tre Williams 4, but 6 of Haarms points were from deep and 6 of those combined points were from the stripe. Haarms had a couple of screens slipped for dunks as well. But nearly none of their scoring was traditional post play. Purdue, especially against better competition, is going to need to be able to feed the post.
• Tre Williams: Poor post play (partly as he wasn't getting entry passes), still appears to be foul prone. He had two VERY pretty assists, but also two TO. Just generally a poor game. 
• 3pt shooting: I expect this will improve, particularly after we get Sasha back in the lineup. But the team as a whole was 6-19 (31.6%) from deep. That's simply not going to get it done going forward. And our guards (Proctor/Hunter/Thompson) were 2-9 from deep. We need better.
• Nojel injuries? He missed the exhibition due to a foot injury, but looked better there. But he left the game twice last night with left hand/wrist pain. Not sure how impactful this is, but he's going to need to be a big part of the team this year, and if he's constantly plagued by injuries, it hurts us on both ends of the court. 

Overall I was pretty pleased with the game. There was definitely some rust, but there were certain things we needed to see, and those were seen. Proctor was a very pleasant surprise, seeing some offensive skills from Eastern and Hunter that we didn't have last year, the ability of Haarms to stretch the defense, and the team as a whole seemed to be solid. It wasn't a perfect game by any means, but it was a good showing for a team that's expected to grow up a LOT in the first portion of the season.

[ELA]

Shocking


https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1192935429835755522?s=19

[MaximumSam]

Andre Wesson has a broken eye socket and will miss 2 weeks