2019-2020 B1G Basketball Thread

[NickSmith4Three]

I guess I should have gone to the game tonight.  Happy to see the Illini finally beat the Badgers.

[medinabuckeye1]

Illinois' win in Madison last night was an upset which changes our projections for those two.  Illinois moves to a projected 8th place finish alone at 10-10 while Wisconsin falls into a projected tie with IU and MN at 8-12 for 10th/11th/12th.  

Illinois and Nebraska are at +2, Ohio State is at -2, all other teams are within +/-1.  

[ELA]

Trevion Williams literally has half of Purdue's points and rebounds, and it's early in the second half.

[MaximumSam]

2OT

[MichiFan87]

It was a frustrating game, but I'm glad and relieved that they got the win. Williams was a beast for Purdue, obviously, especially with Haarms out for the second half. I don't know why Michigan didn't drive to the rim more often, especially with all of the missed 3s, but so it goes. That said, the defense was pretty good against everyone else. I still don't get why Nunez got any minutes, but hopefully that'll end soon, even if Bajema doesn't break into the rotation this year.

Michigan obviously missed Livers, and hopefully he'll be back sooner than later. The upcoming games at Minnesota and Iowa will be tough if he's still out.

[MaximumSam]

Bucks head to Indiana tomorrow really needing a win.  Still no word on whether Kyle Young  will play.  They've missed him - while guard play has been the reason they've lost, they also haven't been able to get many easy points off rebounds or inside.  Teams have been able to smother Wesson and if he comes out to the perimeter no one else can score much inside.  In any event, OSU can't shoot much worse so hopefully that will get on the upswing again.

The Hoosiers are an enigma.  They are 12-3 and 42nd on KenPom.  They have a strong win over Florida State and squeaked by ND.  They've been blown out at Maryland and Wisconsin, and ever so close wins at home over Northwestern and Nebraska.  This game is always interesting because a lot of OSU fans (at the time) wanted Archie Miller and thought Gene Smith screwed up in how he handled that situation.  Hoosier fans seem to be getting mighty tired of Miller, who really needs to contend for the B1G to calm the calls for his job.  

[medinabuckeye1]

This weekend (Friday-Sunday) each B1G team plays exactly one game.  On Monday I'll do an update of the tiers and projection.  The seven games this weekend:

• Maryland at Iowa tonight at 7, FS1:  Maryland has won three straight after losing two straight prior to that but there is a notable difference.  The two losses were on the road while the three wins were at home.  In fact, Maryland has yet to win a true road game this year.  They had three neutral site wins in Nov/Dec and they are 10-0 in the Xfinity Center but thus far they are 0-2 in true road games.  Iowa is coming off of back-to-back losses after having been briefly ranked and could really use a win.  
• Ohio State at Indiana Saturday at noon, FOX:  The Buckeyes have lost three straight and four of six since being on the brink of moving to #1 nationally.  They are down to #11 in the AP but that was before the last loss and if they lose this game they'll be lucky to be ranked at all.  Furthermore, the Buckeyes' slim remaining B1G Championship hopes will die in Bloomington if they can't win this weekend.  There is simply no way that any team is going to come back from four games behind the Spartans to win this league.  The Hoosiers haven't looked great lately either.  They lost to Arkansas at home, got blown out at Maryland, and barely survived Northwestern at home.  Somebody will win.  
• Rutgers at Illinois Saturday at noon, BTN:  The Scarlet Knights are looking great with six straight wins including two over ranked teams (Seton Hall and Penn State) and a rare B1G road win (@UNL).  With a win here and manageable home games against IU and MN coming up they could appear in the AP Poll soon.  Illinois is looking great of late as well.  In their last three games they were competitive with the Spartans in East Lansing, ran Purdue off the court in Champaign and achieved a rare win in Madison.  
• Wisconsin at Penn State Saturday at 2:15, BTN:  Both teams need a bounce back.  The Badgers were chugging along, looking good, and then they lost at home to Illinois.  The Nittany Lions were ranked, chugging along, and looking good and then they lost at Rutgers.  
• Nebraska at Northwestern Saturday at 4:30, BTN:  This is more important than it sounds.  It doesn't really have bigger picture implications but it matters to these two.  Nebraska has managed to upset both Purdue and Iowa at home and if they win this they'll be above .500 in the league.  This is also Nebraska's best chance for a road win in B1G play.  For Northwestern this game is their best chance for a B1G win this season.  If they lose at home to Nebraska then 0-20 is a serious possibility.  
• Michigan State at Purdue Sunday at noon, CBS:  The Spartans are leading the league and if they can win this their lead might start to look insurmountable.  The two teams closest to them (UMD and RU) are both on the road this weekend so it is possible that MSU could be two games ahead of their nearest competitor by the time this game ends.  Purdue is a 2-3/9-7 team that is probably better than their record but they need the W's to prove it.  They were VERY competitive in Ann Arbor last night but got blown off the court in Champaign prior to that.  Worse, after this game they travel to Maryland so there is a very real possibility that this could grow to a four-game losing streak dropping PU's record to 2-5/9-9.  
• Michigan at Minnesota Sunday at 1:00, BTN:  The Wolverines have looked shaky lately.  They were not terribly competitive in East Lansing and barely survived Purdue at home.  If they lose this they'll fall below .500 in conference.  In B1G games so far the Gophers are perfect at home (tOSU, NU) and o-fer on the road (IA, PU, MSU).  If they win this they'll get back to .500 in the league with another home game (PSU) coming up.  

[betarhoalphadelta]

• Purdue is a 2-3/9-7 team that is probably better than their record but they need the W's to prove it.  They were VERY competitive in Ann Arbor last night but got blown off the court in Champaign prior to that.  Worse, after this game they travel to Maryland so there is a very real possibility that this could grow to a four-game losing streak dropping PU's record to 2-5/9-9.

There's context to getting "blown off the court in Champaign". Purdue held the Illini to below their season averages in FG% and FT%, although they shot slightly better than their season average from 3pt. Nothing the Illini did offensively or defensively was much different than normal. 

Defensively, they didn't much different either. Purdue was at their season average in turnovers, and watching the game, they allowed open shot after open shot from the Boilers. Purdue just had a historically-bad shooting night. I mean, historically bad. 25% from the floor (17.1% from 3), and 40% from the stripe. 

Per our tier system, Purdue is expected to beat MSU at home. Per Sagarin, Purdue is *not*. And per Sagarin, it's not expected to be all that close. And either system predicts a Purdue loss @UMD.

So barring luck or a great game, Purdue will absolutely be 2-5 after the Maryland game. The good thing is that the schedule starts to ease up after that, so if the strength in the Michigan game is part of Painter finally figuring out some rotations and rounding this team into form, they could finish strong.

[Abba]

I'm strangely confident that the Buckeyes will get back on track Saturday afternoon against IU.  It would be great if Young can play, but I think this team is too good to remain stuck in this slump.  IU is just as shaky and ripe to steal a road win against.

[ELA]

Per our tier system, Purdue is expected to beat MSU at home. Per Sagarin, Purdue is *not*. And per Sagarin, it's not expected to be all that close. 

Sagarin can't account for the fact that Mackey has replaced Kohl as our House of Horrors.

MSU has lost there 7 times since 2007, including 3 in a row.  The 4 wins MSU has (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014) in that building in the mean time was the game where they beat them post-Hummel injury, after losing at home, to get a share of the Big Ten title, and the 3 year run where Painter was seemingly close to getting fired, having his worst 3 year run.

Boilers aren't as good as they've been, but they aren't 2012-14 bad either.  Maybe if Haarms is out, you could compare it to the 2010 win without Hummel.  I'm not picking it though

[ELA]

Also of note, Xavier Tillman's wife is due the first week of February, when MSU has @Wisconsin, PSU, @Michigan.

Could be relevant.

[betarhoalphadelta]

Sagarin can't account for the fact that Mackey has replaced Kohl as our House of Horrors.

MSU has lost there 7 times since 2007, including 3 in a row.  The 4 wins MSU has (2010, 2012, 2013, 2014) in that building in the mean time was the game where they beat them post-Hummel injury, after losing at home, to get a share of the Big Ten title, and the 3 year run where Painter was seemingly close to getting fired, having his worst 3 year run.

Boilers aren't as good as they've been, but they aren't 2012-14 bad either.  Maybe if Haarms is out, you could compare it to the 2010 win without Hummel.  I'm not picking it though

Agreed. And as you point out, the MSU wins in Mackey have mostly been against teams hobbled with injury or some of Painter's worst teams. I wouldn't exactly call Mackey your "house of horrors" when so many of those other losses were against very, very good Purdue teams. Even if they weren't always on the level of MSU, Mackey is one of the top home court advantages in the conference and in the nation. So MSU would be expected to lose to good, if not always *great*, Purdue teams.

I definitely believe that Painter's 2019-20 team is better than those 2012-14 teams. 

Sagarin today has MSU as a 92.08 rating and Purdue at 83.11, and with a home court advantage of 3.28, that still gives over 5.5 rating advantage to MSU. 

That said, while Sagarin doesn't break out a home and an away rating, it's obvious that Purdue's home rating would be MUCH better than their away rating. MSU has played only two true road games and 3 neutral games, and they're 3-2 in those games. 2 of their 3 losses came in neutral site games. They're 5-0 in conference, but 4 of those games were home games and the road game was Northwestern. Purdue is 2-3 in conference, but 2-0 at home and 0-3 on the road, and the only of those road games they'd have been expected to win was @Nebraska.

I highlighted that there was a difference in projection just to highlight that there was a difference in projection, not necessarily claiming that Sagarin's algorithm is taking everything into account and is right, nor that our tier system is wrong. I expect it to be a hard-fought game either way, and unless the outcome is a clear domination by MSU or Purdue, the final score honestly doesn't prove anything because I think both systems would expect this to be a very close game.

[Brutus Buckeye]

On the radio they relayed a rumor that The General might be making an appearance at the OSU-Indiana game.

[mcwterps1]

LOL! 

Fran pulling a strategy someone in high power does.

Get out in front of things. 

Gets a technical about fouls being called, and get the refs riled up.

Plus, Iowa can't miss. 4-33 against Nebraska from 3, and 6-10 so far tonight, with one by Garza.

Maryland missing layups as usual, Ayala losing the ball in the lane, as usual, and "rare miss" FT's from Cowan, as usual (who misses a lot for a guard).

Looking grim for the road team, and the most overrated Terp team I've ever witnessed.