A look at Ohio State half-way through the B1G season:
The Buckeyes started the season absolutely on fire with great OOC wins over Cincy (currently tied for second in the AAC), Villanova (second in the BigEast) Kentucky (tied for second in the SEC), and UNC (it looked good at the time, they were #7 nationally, but they are currently 13th in the ACC).
The hot start continued through the Buckeyes' first B1G game (a blowout of PSU in Columbus) but cracks suddenly appeared when the Buckeyes went to Minneapolis for their second B1G game. At the time the Buckeyes were ranked #3 in the nation but they were effectively #1 due to other activity among the top teams and then . . . they lost to the unranked and, at the time, .500 Gophers.
After the loss to Minnesota the Buckeyes rebounded to beat SEMO (who cares) and Kentucky then fell off a cliff. They lost four straight and six out of seven with the lone win coming at home against lowly Nebraska. From December 22 through January 25 Nebraska was Ohio State's only win while the suffered all of the following losses:
- vs WVU (in Cleveland)
- vs Wisconsin
- at Maryland
- at Indiana
- at Penn State (the same PSU that tOSU had blown out a little over a month earlier)
- vs Minnesota
Now the Buckeyes have won two straight for the first time since December 17 and 22 but even there, those were against lowly Northwestern and a home game against Indiana.
The Buckeyes are 4-6 and we project them to go 5-5 down the stretch to finish 9-11 and tied with Michigan for 11th/12th in the league (the Buckeyes would win the tie). Here are their remaining games in order of what I think is the likelihood of tOSU winning:
- vs Purdue, 2/15
- vs Michigan, 3/1
- at Nebraska, 2/27
- vs Rutgers, 2/12
- vs Illinois, 3/5
- at Michigan, 2/4
- vs Maryland, 2/23
- at Iowa, 2/20
- at Wisconsin, 2/9
- at Michigan State, 3/8
The first five are projected wins, the last five are projected losses. Unexpected losses would be bad for tOSU's tournament hopes, but they wouldn't matter much in terms of league standings. As noted above, the Buckeyes are projected to finish tied with Michigan for 11th/12th at 9-11. They would win the tie so an extra loss would cost them the 11th seed in the BTT but they are projected to finish six games ahead of #13 Nebraska so basically 12th is the floor.
Unexpected wins would change things quickly:
- With just one extra win (finishing 6-4) the Buckeyes would move into the logjam of teams projected to finish 10-10 in the B1G.
- With two extra wins (finishing 7-3) the Buckeyes would move into a projected tie with Iowa for 6th/7th at 11-9. The Buckeyes would lose that tie and get the 7th seed.
- With three extra wins (finishing 8-2) the Buckeyes would join Penn State and Wisconsin in a tie for 4th/5th/6th at 12-8.
- That is pretty much the ceiling because even if the Buckeyes won out (10-0) that would only get them to 14-6 and into a three-way tie with MSU and IL for 2nd/3rd/4th. Actually, if the Buckeyes won out that would only be a two-way tie because winning out would include an upset win in East Lansing that would knock the Spartans' projection down to 13-7.
Realistic possibilities, IMHO:
- Best Case Scenario: IMHO, the Best-Case-Scenario is to finish about two games over the projection and end up 11-9/21-10. That would clearly be a lock for the Tournament and probably mean roughly the 6th seed in the BTT.
- Good but not great: Next would be to finish one game over the projection and end up 10-10/20-11. With Ohio State's quality OOC wins and the strength of the B1G this year, that would probably be a lock for the tournament and probably somewhere around the 6th to 11th seed in the BTT.
- As Projected: If the Buckeyes finish 5-5 as projected, they will end up 9-11/19-12 and with roughly the 11th seed in the BTT. With that record and the likely Wednesday BTT game against a bad Nebraska or Northwestern team the Buckeyes would probably need to win their BTT opener to make the big dance. I think that two wins in the BTT and a final record of 21-13 would get them in.
- Bad but not terrible: Next would be to finish one game below the projection and end up 8-12/18-13 with roughly the 12th seed in the BTT. That record would clearly mean that the Buckeyes would need some wins in Indianapolis to have any realistic chance to make the tournament.
- Worst Case Scenario: IMOH, the Worst-Case-Scenario is to finish two games below the projection and end up 7-13/17-14 with probably the 12th seed in the BTT. That record would clearly mean that the Buckeyes would need a run in Indianapolis to make the tournament.