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Topic: 2018 Season Stream of Completely Off-Topic Unconsciousness

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #280 on: April 04, 2018, 11:00:00 PM »
As we're talking about 2008, it amazes me how our economy on one hand is built on long-term principals, yet incentivizes the short term so much. That was obviously only an element of what happened, but it never ceases to amaze me how much can be made by learning and mastering the mechanics of all this without actually producing anything. 

Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #281 on: April 05, 2018, 07:00:27 AM »
An interesting continuing trend I see in a lot of cities is "gentrification" (or what could more crudely be termed reverse white flight, if you will).  Cincinnati has seen it in the OTR area north of downtown.  Atlanta has seen it in midtown (where we are moving) in a big way.  Some of the residences there just 20 years ago were very run down and now sell well into 7 figures and the houses are all beautiful (nearly all).  The more commercial side of midtown has construction cranes everywhere as new high rises go up (mostly apartments I'm told and some businesses).  

The area I grew up 12 miles from downtown has undergone an almost 100% "race reversal".  My former HS is now 90% African American (and largely middle class).  

We are going from 2 cars to one and expect to do more walking to stuff.  The park is right across the street and we have enjoyed the parks here but have to drive to them.

And despite the efforts of HUD and others, the "Projects" still exist around Atlanta, generally not in good shape at all even the ones that are fairly new.  Unintended consequences happen a lot in life.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #282 on: April 05, 2018, 09:19:08 AM »
Out of curiosity (not to pry), does this mean if property had stayed near peak-bubble value you'd be retired, or that you had investments that went belly up at that point and didn't recover?
My business crashed, with the crash. 25 people turned into 4 people. Construction of anything not related to government came to a halt, and even that slowed greatly.

When Lehman Brothers went down, that was the end for a lot of things.

My business still exists, and is doing very well, despite Illinois (known as Madaganistan) far lagging the rest of the country on recovery.

3 years, 8 months and 25 days.
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Drew4UTk

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #283 on: April 05, 2018, 09:27:52 AM »
it's always the cascade, and rarely the catalyst.  

the press in the late nineties to lower restrictions for home loans was the catalyst.  exploiting it for all it was worth- buying above the ability to repay, or valuations of property going sky-high with the only basis being "well, they can get the money", and extending that credit and then selling the notes before the first payment was due were cascades.  

the crash was the catalyst- the cascade was (and is) felt far and wide in just about every sector.  

this is/was my perspective, anyway.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #284 on: April 05, 2018, 09:36:08 AM »
Banks were giving out loans based on stated income. Stated.

Think about that for a minute. Duh.


I find this interesting:

https://www.ilnews.org/news/statewide/census-retirees-will-outnumber-kids-in-less-than-years-for/article_b0149f88-383c-11e8-895b-93a77c0e4035.html

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bayareabadger

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #285 on: April 05, 2018, 10:19:04 AM »
Banks were giving out loans based on stated income. Stated.

Think about that for a minute. Duh.


I find this interesting:

https://www.ilnews.org/news/statewide/census-retirees-will-outnumber-kids-in-less-than-years-for/article_b0149f88-383c-11e8-895b-93a77c0e4035.html


Non-verified income AND no money down. Considering a loan is based on three vectors, they were basically just working the corners of unknown credit.
And the damnedest part was they were doing it with relish. There were moments where banks actually filled out forms with higher incomes than the people even said they had. Because there was incentive to get loans on the books so they could be sold off to the wider investment world. Of course, there was a bunch of laundering bad debt into good, plus a slew of multipliers that spun value wildly out of whack. It really in retrospect was something to behold. 
Perhaps we can argue it began with trying to push home ownership in a ham-fisted manner, but incentives pushed the fervor on the loaning side to where it was. People who were supposed to be responsible and smart were not. Lord knows, business will resist and work around interference at every turn, and if policy alone could actually incite the volume of lenders spraying money all over the place, well we'd spend a lot of time talking about how effective that big G word really is. 

bayareabadger

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #286 on: April 05, 2018, 10:21:14 AM »
My business crashed, with the crash. 25 people turned into 4 people. Construction of anything not related to government came to a halt, and even that slowed greatly.

When Lehman Brothers went down, that was the end for a lot of things.

My business still exists, and is doing very well, despite Illinois (known as Madaganistan) far lagging the rest of the country on recovery.

3 years, 8 months and 25 days.
Ahhh, my condolences. Bubbles are a mess to be sure. The psychology of them is interesting. When they burst, we rush to shore things up with drastic change. When they're happening, folks assume this is the way it "should" be.
Oddly enough, sounds like college football sometimes. 

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #287 on: April 05, 2018, 10:41:48 AM »
Condolences not necessary, but thanks. We were always careful - we did not dive fully into the residential business like other firms did - many of which are no longer in business due to their greed and short-sightedness. 

We were diverse in our work and that's why we are still around. And we are still diverse. 

The biggest problem we now face is finding people. There is a big gap between seasoned staff and newbies. The middle is all gone, because they simply just got out of the business.

I need to find my replacement. That's been a struggle.
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MarqHusker

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #288 on: April 05, 2018, 01:18:48 PM »
Stated FICO scores (or an equivalent) was also a 'tool' used during those fun times.

It was like lending to people based on descriptions in the personals.

I worked nights during law school for a pretty well known underwriter and provider of 'MI'.  basically my job was to prep mortgage files for the underwriter while I listened to the radio (I listened to the Bartman '03 NLCS Game 6 Marlins/Cubs game) during this job.   File after file was often a large 'Cash Out' Re-FI,  or Interest Only purchases.   The leverage/revolving debt was mindblowing to witness in application after application.    Often DINKs (dual income no kids), and they were basically bankrolling their lifestyle on rising home prices (levered over their eyeballs).  Their files, and I realize in '03 what you produced on the app, is about 10 documents short of what's required in this era, were regularly scant of any real savings.     Very few regional/commercial banks stayed away from these loans.   The ones that ate them up were obviously the ones who were most harmed in 2009 and forward.   They all got whacked though by the Street.

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #289 on: April 05, 2018, 02:01:54 PM »
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Cincydawg

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #290 on: April 05, 2018, 02:08:31 PM »
I'm now officially in between closing on the new place and listing the old place for sale.  I will own both for some period of time, hopefully not long.  It is amazing how much the loan guy knew about me and the wife in about 30 seconds after taking some info.


Drew4UTk

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #291 on: April 05, 2018, 02:32:08 PM »
best of luck, cincy... it sounds like your plan was a solid one!

@847badgerfan : i had an 849 at one point... i was using personal credit cards at 0%into to buy merchandise for my store, and running them up to the limit of $45k twice a month, and paying them off twice a month- attempting to buy only what i knew would sell in the time frame (high volume items exclusively using personal cards)... it kept me from higher rate terms with vendors, and though i was constantly on the phone with credit card companies inquiring about fraud, i learned a thing or two about how they rate folks... i had no clue that spending at or near your extended limit and then paying it off was a glitch in their system of reporting... 

if a person wanted to dramatically improve their situation and were willing to pay for it (not some goofy service) they could simply get a card with a low or no intro rate and run it up-pay it off-run it up-pay it off, paying the processing fees, yes, but dramatically improving their rating... like, use paypal or something akin to pay yourself, and withdraw from paypal to pay it off.  two or three months of that is worth quite a bump in rating- and would be a good plan if a person's rating is not too good and they were looking at buying something substantial in the coming year.   

to me it demonstrates the lunacy of determining a persons solvency.  

847badgerfan

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #292 on: April 05, 2018, 02:48:20 PM »
I use credit for everything, and I pay it off every month. I'm also never late on anything, ever, never. Hence the score.

I get dinged for having too much unused credit, of all things, and too many inquiries (mostly due to my business, which requires frequent purchases of computers and other equipment that I get 0% loans for).

People. Meh.
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MarqHusker

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Re: 2018 Offseason Stream of Unconsciousness
« Reply #293 on: April 05, 2018, 04:11:02 PM »
The factors influencing credit are quite incongruent in some cases.   Too much unused credit?  Bad.  Not enough credit history? (Bad, probably the worst characteristic next to prior delinquency/bankruptcy).    Someone who has always been a cash buyer of everything, and is self employed, is viewed as a high credit risk.  there's just no (or little) sample size to evaluate.

There's a fundamental sweet spot when it comes to use of revolving credit.   The ratios are what you need to pay attention to (if you're trying to improve your FICO).  If you utilize 75% or more of available revolving credit, that can ding your FICO.   Bring that utilization down if you can.  If you're north of 750, you have 'great credit'.  There are no brownie points for being 800+ (850 is generally the top), though a couple 'newer' scales go into the 900s.  Truthfully is you are 720 or better, you're going to be fine.

Pay on time (always)
Establish and use some revolving credit (hopefully you pay off each month), keep utilization close to 50%
Installment credit (student loan, mortgage, HELOC, with consistent payment history) are usually positive credit score factors.
Order your report once a year (check for accuracy, mistakes, fraud).

 

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